Perhaps eastern Long Island, but I definitely wouldn't give it, say, Queens. Suffolk County NY at the most, I'd say.
Some random thoughts here- we'd probably want to get rid of their attempt to claim New Jersey, as that settlement turned out to be a big loss to the colony. Perhaps instead of that they send more settlers to Long Island?
The other issue was New Haven Colony's support of the judges who sentenced King Charles I to death, which was one of the reasons Charles II found it so easy to wipe the colony out with a stroke of a pen on Connecticut's charter...
Interestingly, according to Wikipedia, settlers from New Haven Colony who left after the colony was abolished were responsible for the creation of Newark... so could this mean no Newark in TTL? (Well, something's going to be there in any case)
The big question is what the different situation looks like by 1776. Of course, butterflies become an issue if we're talking about the ARW.