WI: State of Judea

For those who don't know about it:

The State of Judea (Hebrew: מְדִינַת יְהוּדָה, Medīnat Yəhuda) is a proposed halachic state in the West Bank put forward by Israeli Jewish settlers. After the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) declared the existence of a Palestinian state in 1988, some settler activists (primarily Kahanists) feared that international pressure would lead Israel to withdraw from the West Bank and sought to lay the groundwork for an Orthodox Jewish state in the West Bank if this came to pass. In January 1989 several hundred activists met and announced their intention to create such a state if Israel withdrew.

The idea was revived following the unilateral disengagement plan which resulted in the forcible withdrawal of Jewish settlers from Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force in 2005. In 2007 rabbi Shalom Dov Wolpo suggested the establishment of a new state in the West Bank in the event of Israeli withdrawal.

So, let's say the Jewish setters declare independence from the West Bank and form a government. Would we see another 1948, with Othodox Jews combating Palestinians? Could said state receive UN recognition, or would it be another "Northern Cyprus"? Would it remain separate, or eventually unite with Israel?
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I think that this idea would not be ending well for anyone unless you get the pattern of settlement to be ridiculously concentrated in a few areas contigious with each other. Now, I think this may be possible; the Orthodox community can be very organized when it wants to be.

Basically, you get a piece of the West Bank to be a settler state after the IDF, despite not wanting to and facing resistance, expels the settlers into this pre arranged area.

On the other hand, the Palestinians get their state once it is clear that SOME of the West Bank is going to be Israel/Judea.
 

Pangur

Donor
This end very badly, this state it managed to exist would be near enough land locked and full embarrasment for Israel. No industry worth taking about to add to the mix.
 
I think an Israeli civil war scenario would be interesting to speculate upon.

It would be interesting to see how the two states handle issues like The status of Jerusalem and such, but the IDF would cream the Judeans any day.

That said, I think Israel would be extremely cautious not to start a shooting war with the Judeans. It would look very bad internationally to have the war against a Jewish community. If Israel tells the Judeans to leave and they say no, what can they do? Carry them out by their feet? Once Judean militias start to pop up the IDF might as well leave. The West Bank is occupied territory and not part of Israel, so they may as well let it go if it means Jerusalem is secured. Then of course clashes with the Palestinians start (especially if it's during the First Intifada) with the setters who now lack IDF protection. Cue the Orthodox immigration and Arab volunteers and it's a war over the West Bank. Meanwhile Israel and the Arabs watch carefully to see who's gaining the upper hand.
 
the IDF would crush these crazies, and i doubt that many would actually revolt instead of leave

IDF fighting alongside Palestinians is a interesting thought
 

Cook

Banned
So, let's say a small number of Jewish setters declare independence in the West Bank

Just fixing up your proposal a little bit; I remember seeing the Judean declaration, back in the '80s (nice flag; a lion's head on the side of a solid Jewish star, or flags - I think they finally went with a different one) and they weren't exactly what you'd call a 'popular' movement; they were sort of like that crazy guy in Mandela's South Africa who wanted to estabish a White Homeland.

If an 'independent' Judean state had been 'declared', most would have considered it of nuisance value only; viewing it as a Settler protest movement, designed to either force Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, or provide greater compensation to uprooted Settlers if a withdraw like Sinai (or worst-case, like Gaza) was to take place. They'd have been largely ignored by authorities, until such time as a settlement withdraw did take place, then you might have seen some violence, and - at worse - a 'Waco' standoff and confrontation in a settlement after a few fanatics watched too many re-runs of Peter O'Toole in 'Masada'.

It might also have made Shin Bet pay more attention to the security threat possed by Jews to the politicians they were protecting.
 
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