Not really, they had to slow and abandon a number of expansion projects due to bombing and demands of weapons and material;
And in the end those expansion projects came online IOTL in the 1942-1943 period. Basically you are saying nothing changes.
pgrade production sometimes bi-monthly as the military demanded the latest changes immediately,
Now you are just wanking. Not even
the United States was able to do this, what hope does Germany have?
ITTL they would be able to have significantly higher production, especially with the ability to import/export. The ability to utilize occupied economies to supplement their own when no under blockade would be a massive difference.
The German exports pre-war were completely incapable of sustaining their armament program, now suddenly their exports are going to sustain an even larger armament program? And how are the occupied territories going to supplement the German economy when they have been looted clean by the Germans? What are they going to export when their industrial base has largely been stripped down and shipped back to Germany as reparations? What are the Germans going to export when they need everything they produce to fight the Soviets?
You seem to be under some delusion that the German economy was remotely as efficient, either in war time or in peace time, as that of the British, American, or even Soviet ones. The historical record quite conclusively indicates it was not.
At the end of their logistic lines
The Soviets logistic lines begin at their rail-heads. Which in this case are right on the frontier.
where they can only mass part of their forces and push them into enemy territory with poor infrastructure and different rail gauges (East Poland had terrible roads for instance).
Except IOTL both the Soviets and Germans were able to do just that. And then they were able to convert the rail infrastructure either slowly (in the German case) or rapidly (in the Soviets case) too their own use in time for the build-up to the Berlin offensive.
In fact, the Soviets ITTL 1943 have a distinct advantage over the Germans IOTL 1941 in that they have more trucks which are also more mechanically reliable.
In the short term they may be able to prevent total air superiority, but they will not be able to prevent local air superiority
Temporarily winning local air superiority is completely inadequate if the Germans hope to penetrate a Soviet defense-in-depth or massed assaults.
nor win the attrition war thanks to German radar, FLAK,
Inadequate to compensate for a large numerical inferiority with only a modest tactical superiority.
ability to bomb Soviet rail hubs at night unimpeded.
Something which comprehensively failed to harm Soviet logistics IOTL.
Their pilots will remain behind the Germans in terms of training and experience (they didn't really correct faulty doctrine until 1943 IOTL after a lot of combat experience) and will not be able to compete on equal footing.
Attrition will effectively gut the VVS before they could achieve any major success on the ground, which then leaves the LW capable of intervening more regularly.
The Luftwaffe never managed this IOTL even when they were at their peak compared to the VVS. Now they are going to manage it when the VVS is much more comparable to them?
means they can't win unless they have air superiority like IOTL 1943-45, which they can't without Western intervention.
Hogwash. The VVS were able to drag the Germans into repeated attritional battle in 1943 and win, ultimately contributing just almost as much to the decline in German air power as Western operations. German industry proved incapable of replacing their losses even solely against the VVS at any point in the war.
Define need; they would seriously miss the hundreds of thousands of trucks, machine tools, tanks, aircraft, more advanced communications and radar equipment, RR equipped, high octane avgas, raw materials, etc.
And they will be able to make hundreds of thousands of trucks, machine tools, tanks, aircraft, advanced communications, radar equipment, railroad equipment, high octane avgas, and raw materials without the massive German advance into their country and the resulting devastation inflicted upon their industry and economy.
They could fight without it, but it would all be sorely missed, especially when Soviet industry needs to make it themselves.
And Soviet industry will be able to do just that with little difficulty.
No. The T-34M was a significantly upgraded model and they only expected to make a few hundred in 1941; that would give them 18 months to mass produce it in peacetime, i.e. not with war time production numbers; at best you're looking at 7k total delivered by June 1943 and that wouldn't include any losses in training or manufacturing recalls.
Production of the T-34M was to begin in August 1941 and have replaced T-34 Model 1941 completely by October 1941. In light of that, 7K does sound reasonable. Although production would radically accelerate in the months before the Soviet declaration of war as industry moves to a war footing.
As to the doctrinal improvements I doubt they would change enough to fix all or even most of the issues.
They would not fix all of the issues. They would certainly have fixed most of them.
Wartime production numbers would start when the war starts, but so to do the German ones, who have a much more complete industry than IOTL
And the Soviets have a much more complete industry than IOTL. Also Soviet wartime production numbers would actually start before the war starts, as the Soviets would switch over wartime production a few months before they start to invade.
Furthermore, the Germans would have to demobilize in order to begin the export/import strategy you describe. So production number in 1941, 1942, and the first half of 1943 will be radically below IOTL.
and can better keep up like they did in 1944 in terms of numbers, but will be able to inflict far more disproportionate losses on the Soviets.
You have not demonstrated this.
Meanwhile the LW prevents the Soviets from developing their critical air support that was vital to their ground success.
By magic, apparently.
Sure, but they had to make them themselves, instead of getting them for free, what don't they make that they had IOTL instead?
Nothing they were planning on building in 1941-1943 before the war began anyways. The decline of Soviet truck production was caused by the mass destruction and dislocation of Soviet vehicle industry. The Soviets lost around 400 vehicle plants to the German invasion and as a result truck production crashed from 140,000 in 1938 through 1940 too something like 60-70,000 in 1942.
Now weapons production will increase over the latter-half of 1941 and in 1942 as the rearmament program progresses, but at a relatively slower pace. Once the decision to go to war and begin
Also without strategic bombing and time to finish their industrialization the Germans would also be able to make many more than IOTL.
German truck production was consistently below Soviet truck production pre-war.
On the Soviet held side, not the German side they would be attacking.
Given how large their truck pool will be, the Soviets will be able to advance just as far from their railheads as the Germans did IOTL.
On the much more restricted frontage and no other enemies to use them against they would have a major impact as they did IOTL against the T-34s, especially the 76mm equipped ones.
Which is inadequate. To quote George M. Nipe: "The lesson of Summer 1943 is that tactical superiority, weapon quality, and high levels of training do not constitute strategy. These factors are not necessarily enough to win a conflict against a determined enemy when the elements of time, numerically superior forces, and the effects of attrition come into play."
That alone, sure, but their advantage would be significantly more than just modest.
You have not demonstrated this. The Germans have no more room for doctrinal improvement in 1941 so they won't be any better there in 1943. The Soviets have massive room for doctrinal improvement in 1941 and were actively working to improve so they will be there in 1943.
You act like they couldn't export from 1941-43 before the war and raise money;
They were unable to export enough in 1933-1939 to cover the cost of their rearmament, why would they in 1941-1943?
plus they'd have access to the colonial empires of occupied Europe, so could get most of what they needed that way.
Why would they have access too it? If the British have a cease-fire
The severe impact of strategic bombing started in early 1943 with the bombing of the Ruhr in terms of steel production and the blunting of the armaments miracle, as per Tooze
As per Tooze, there was no armaments miracle in the Reich, merely .
And also as per Tooze, German production consistently rose from 1941 all the way into the latter-half of 1944 despite the strenuous efforts of both Bomber Command and the 8th Air Force.
All of that would appear in the East ITTL instead of being diverted,
So the Germans have another 100,000 men and a few more tens of thousands of static artillery pieces. The Soviets, for their part, have millions of more men, tens of thousands of more artillery, hundreds of thousands of more trucks, thousands more tanks, thousands more aircraft, and all of a better quality.
while being supplemented by Axis allied armies like the Italians who were strategically bombed too from early 1943.
And who proved incapable of standing up to the Soviets.
The level of exchange would be higher given how close the Axis forces are to their supply hubs, their full undiminished strength being available based on pre-war defensive plans and excellent defensive terrain, and no encumberment from other fronts and demands on production/forces.
And the Soviets are vastly more competent after having finished their reform program, have their full-undiminished strength being available based on pre-war offensive planning, a massively larger industrial base that they have not lost to a huge German invasion, and a massively larger force that they have not lost to encirclements.
You are heavily overestimating Soviet ability without combat experience, especially offensive mobile warfare.
And you are heavily underestimating the extent and thoroughness of the Soviet reform and rearmament program.
(people aren't nearly as willing to die for a war of choice, rather than one of survival).
Funny how the Soviets managed to do just that (Winter War!).
Plus that assuming the Soviets are able to actually invade Germany and end the ware in total victory.
They were IOTL when
Based on your hopes and dreams.
Ad-hominem noted.
Germany will be too mangled to dominate Europe if they win, the Soviets will not be.
Why not? If the Soviets defeating the Germans is going to be as OH SO IMPOSSIBLY DIFFICULT as you have claimed it will be, why would the Soviets not be horribly mangled? And why would the Germans, in fact, be so mangled in dominating all of Europe as to not be a threat to Britain in defeating the Soviets when, under such circumstances, their industrial heartland would be largely untouched?
Actually he stopped in 1941. And was stopping well before that. One can see the decline in arrests and executions starting in 1939. In 1940, the rehabilitation of dismissed and/or arrested officers began. The war merely accelerated the end of purges, it did not prompt it.
You sure about that? OTL was about national survival, ITTL is about an acceptable cost for the gains;
Well, given that the Nazis are guaranteed to turn it into a war for national survival regardless of who starts it...
Mind you, I don't in the slightest bit think that Stalin would be willing to attack the Germans if there was peace in the west. His whole plan was predicated on there being a war in the west going on. Your the one who brought up the prospect of him attacking without such.
The start of barbarossa saw a vastly larger Axis force compared to the Soviet troops. The Soviets can certainly beef up compared to OTL 1941, but a numerical advantage doesn't seem like a given.
It's a given. Unless the Germans are able to encircle and destroy literally millions of Soviet men in the first couple of months like they did IOTL, the forces facing them will balloon in size, all the way up to potentially 9-10 million men. The Germans are simply in no position to win a war of attrition with the Soviet Union.