Using that argument is stupid and pointless. You could say that our evolution was ASB, because it was so unlikely to happen and yet did. Pretty much anything that didn't have a 100% probability of happening would be ASB.
Wait, I don't get it: the US is not a religiously fanatic state by most measures. If you want that, check out "Year Zero." There are differences from having some Protestants in power and a theocracy.
Who could have predicted that Bush would start two wars, years beforehand?
Way to derail a thread, by the way. From Stalin killing himself to ranting about a theocratic US with Bush in power. Nicely done.
This wouldn't happen, simply because no general would kill the subject of the personality cult. It would be like god descending from the heavens, and telling the pope to murder him. Would that happen? No. They would question the order, Stalin would realize the mistake, and things would proceed roughly AIOTL.
rcduggan I wasn't trying to derail the thread I was trying to get it back on track. If you reread my post I was giving examples of actual history that was so unlikely as to be nearly ASB. Real history is full of things that are unlikely and caused by silly mistakes.
My what-if is what are the political ramifications of someone like Stalin at the height of his power in the 30s dieing in what is ultimately the silliest and most embarrassing way possible, not even as dignified as tripping and falling off the podium at the mayday parade. Low level clerks in a bureaucracy routinely process documents without paying attention to them. Laws are passed that have effects that no one anticipates. I other words sometimes shit happens!
Of course a sensible general would question the order, I didn't say that the order went to a sensible general, I was thinking that it went to an incompetent junior officer, someones idiot nephew, who was duty officer that day because everyone else took off early for a long weekend.
Look at my and blue max's posts and seriously consider what would be the real world impact of such a silly death for Stalin. I wondered would it make other dictators so paranoid that they were afraid to sign their names to anything?
Go with the flow, consider the event, what happens? Its way too gossip worthy to be covered up completely rumors would get out, spies would find out. Think of it as a giant spanner tossed into the works of totalitarianism.
Have fun!