So I just got done reading and watching the Fatherland novel and Movie Adaptation, and it mentioned that Stalin was still alive and kicking at 85 years old. So I was wondering: What if Joseph Stalin lived to be this old in real life? Or even older than that? How would the USSR change in this TL compared to our TL? How would the Cold War be different if Stalin were still in charge while JFK were in the White House? That kinda stuff.
WI: Stalin lives a longer life?
- Thread starter Marklin
- Start date
Off the top of my head more people would have died than did die IOTL as Stalin was preparing new purges- which would have killed lord knows how many more people- when he was fatally stricken in 1953. (It's no wonder that, according to one account, when it was determined that
Stalin was really & truly dead Khrushchev cracked: "Tonight the mice have buried the cat.").*
*- Quoted in Robert Payne, THE RISE AND FALL OF STALIN, p. 779 of the 1966, Avon paperback
edition.
Stalin was really & truly dead Khrushchev cracked: "Tonight the mice have buried the cat.").*
*- Quoted in Robert Payne, THE RISE AND FALL OF STALIN, p. 779 of the 1966, Avon paperback
edition.
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Stalin had no real intention of ending the Korean War, negotiated or otherwise, IIRC. That leaves the potential for escalation with Truman greenlighting Macarthur's idea to use nuclear weapons on the Chinese. Stalin being Stalin, he won't risk nuclear war unless he's getting demented and that means China will face America's nuclear wrath alone, forcing the PRC to abandon its support for the DPRK and resulting in a Korean reunification on Western terms. What effects Stalin's unwillingness or failure to directly support China against American nuclear attacks will have on Sino-Soviet relations is anyone's guess.
There were all sorts of rumors that he was planning to deport Soviet Jews to remote areas of the USSR; see https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...really-planning-to-deport-soviet-jews.425829/ for why I am somewhat skeptical of this.
Mikoyan and Molotov were definitely in danger. So, almost certainly, was Beria. (The security organs were being attacked for "insufficient vigilance" in the Doctors' Plot--and in Stalinist practice, such charges are readily converted into allegations of actual complicity.)
Mikoyan and Molotov were definitely in danger. So, almost certainly, was Beria. (The security organs were being attacked for "insufficient vigilance" in the Doctors' Plot--and in Stalinist practice, such charges are readily converted into allegations of actual complicity.)
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Considering Mugabe was still going strong before he got overthrown at the age of 94, I could perfectly see a 85-90 year old Stalin still being the total ruler of the USSR.
Have you read TL Twilight of the Red Tsar? Russia would be total hell if Stalin would live even few years more. Even his pogroms aren't so succesful things would be pretty bad still.
That TL came across as worst case scenario with crazy levels of death and destruction but I do agree that keeping him alive is going to result in a lot more people dying. Stalin was nuts.
So, any chance someone will eliminate him at some point after 1953?
(Beria boasted having done it, but who knows).
(Beria boasted having done it, but who knows).
The biggest issue is actually Stalin's health. Between the chain-smoking and the drinking, his lifestyle wasn't great, never mind the stress of the job.
If you can handwave the health issue (which may in turn affect his mental state too), I think you get the following:
If you can handwave the health issue (which may in turn affect his mental state too), I think you get the following:
- Another purge. Bye, bye a fair number of the faces from 1950s and 1960s Soviet politics.
- A continued emphasis on industrial goods over consumer ones.
- Hungarian Crisis likely averted. No-one's that suicidal.
- No Hungary, and no Secret Speech keeps Western Communism more of a going concern.
- No Sino-Soviet split. Communism remains monolithic.
- No Cuban Missle Crisis. Stalin is far more cautious than Khrushchev, and won't push it (besides, a failed Revolution in Havana can be used for propaganda purposes).
RousseauX
Donor
twilight of the red star tl goes into this, USSR fights a nuclear war with China and the Soviet bloc collapses a lot earlier
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/twilight-of-the-red-tsar.371831/
RousseauX
Donor
Mikoyan Molotov were goners by 1953 and saved only by Stalin dying, Beria was a goner too if Stalin lived
Anchises
Banned
It is a great TL but a worst case scenario basically.
A more down to earth scenario might be:
-Stalin purges most of OTLs political players
-no Destalinization, instead Soviet Communism remains closer to Maoism, authoritarian, cult of personality etc.
-no Khruschev means that the Politbureau never works towards "luxury communism" meaning that consumer goods are even rarer than IOTL
-no Second Holocaust but Soviet antisemitism is even more pronounced
- further down the line I could see a "Best Korea and not Glasnost" scenario earlier than OTL
The longer Stalinism "burns", the sooner the Soviet Union will be burnt out.
Well, shit. If we’re talking nukes over the likes of Beijing and Shanghai, not only is Korea going to the West and the Kim dynasty up shit creek, but you can kiss Mao and the whole CCP goodbye unless the aftermath of China results in a partition. Because at that point, if Stalin doesn’t back the Chinese up, he’s essentially looking at Mao in his hour of need and telling him to go fuck himself. And China will not forgive that fuck-you from the Russians nor will it abide Communism if the head honchos and main enforcers of the CCP have been turned into radioactive vapor.
The US probably rebuilds China in its own image as it did with Japan, and both Korea and Vietnam end up going for the West. The Soviets redouble efforts in other parts of the world and try to stir up trouble wherever they can.
RousseauX
Donor
A couple of nukes isn't going to destroy the PRC: 1950s era nukes were not that powerful and the US wasn't going to do a full-scale war against China
even if China loses a couple of major cities it's a long way from regime collapse
Eisenhower's nuclear threats were intended to coerce China into agreeing to an armistice. It's unlikely the US would try to nuke Beijing, since decapitating the Chinese government would mean no armistice. The US would probably nuke a few military bases or industrial areas in Manchuria. North Korea won't be nukes because there are no viable targets left there. Given how unpopular the war was in America, and how the 1950 invasion of the north failed, it is also unlikely that the US conquers the DPRK. The war would end with a result similar to OTL, just with many more Chinese casualties. The US is unlikely to rebuild China, because China will remain hostile, at least until the Sino-Soviet Split occurs. Even then, the Chinese would probably be reluctant to become friends with America, due to the nukes.
In that case, I think the USSR would implode and the global demeanor of the late fifties would begin to resemble the nineties. The social ramifications would be profound as the OTL Cold War would never happen. Another issue, without the space race, the development of electronics from the sixties forward might be more sluggish.
- Rapprochement with religious elements will continue especially with the Russian Orthodox Church.
- Soviet architecture evolves along a neoclassical line, building of the Palace of the Soviets may continue.
- Less concern in rocketry development, the USSR may not be the first in space. This also slows down the global arms & space race.
- Soviet architecture evolves along a neoclassical line, building of the Palace of the Soviets may continue.
- Less concern in rocketry development, the USSR may not be the first in space. This also slows down the global arms & space race.
thorr97
Banned
A longer lived Stalin would mean a Soviet Union that was less "livable" one than a Soviet Union in which he died as in OTL.
A less "livable" Soviet Union would be a less adaptable and capable one that would be more ideologically "pure" but have substantially less ability to project its force throughout the world.
If Stalin opted to keep the Korean War running to the point the US got tired of the stalemate and actually began using its A-Bombs to "make progress toward peace" would also mean an end to the Soviet's abilities to wage war against the West via proxies. It could also very well mean an end to Communist control of China itself.
With entire Chinese divisions and or cities vaporized, neither the people nor the second tier leadership of the Chinese Communist Party would have much faith in Mao and his minions. They only entered the fighting in Korea at Stalin's command in the first place. And now they're bearing the atomic hellfire response without recourse. At that point, no, it wouldn't be a low stress / care-free job to be a NATO soldier anywhere in West Germany. But considering the overwhelming disparity in nuclear delivery capacity enjoyed by the US over the Soviet Union in 1953, I don't think there'd be any substantive threat made by Stalin against the West. He'd be forced to back down lest he and the Soviet Union be obliterated.
After that, no one would want to be a proxy for Moscow in facing the West. Even if Mao survived America's Atomic Response he'd not have any interest in continuing to be Stalin's stooge. And his many subordinates would have every reason and motivation to depose him for his failure in vision.
With Stalin still ruling the Soviet Union into the late 1950s then woe unto anyone chaffing under Communist control in Eastern Europe. This, more so than it was when Khrushchev was in charge. I'd also expect just as many attempts at destabilizing the West by the Soviets through support of various "wars of national liberation" and insurgents of all stripes. But I think there'd be less success at that thanks to the continued brutality of Stalin both within Russia and beyond. Throw in the continued purging of anyone even remotely competent within the Soviet Union and it just keeps getting worse.
A less "livable" Soviet Union would be a less adaptable and capable one that would be more ideologically "pure" but have substantially less ability to project its force throughout the world.
If Stalin opted to keep the Korean War running to the point the US got tired of the stalemate and actually began using its A-Bombs to "make progress toward peace" would also mean an end to the Soviet's abilities to wage war against the West via proxies. It could also very well mean an end to Communist control of China itself.
With entire Chinese divisions and or cities vaporized, neither the people nor the second tier leadership of the Chinese Communist Party would have much faith in Mao and his minions. They only entered the fighting in Korea at Stalin's command in the first place. And now they're bearing the atomic hellfire response without recourse. At that point, no, it wouldn't be a low stress / care-free job to be a NATO soldier anywhere in West Germany. But considering the overwhelming disparity in nuclear delivery capacity enjoyed by the US over the Soviet Union in 1953, I don't think there'd be any substantive threat made by Stalin against the West. He'd be forced to back down lest he and the Soviet Union be obliterated.
After that, no one would want to be a proxy for Moscow in facing the West. Even if Mao survived America's Atomic Response he'd not have any interest in continuing to be Stalin's stooge. And his many subordinates would have every reason and motivation to depose him for his failure in vision.
With Stalin still ruling the Soviet Union into the late 1950s then woe unto anyone chaffing under Communist control in Eastern Europe. This, more so than it was when Khrushchev was in charge. I'd also expect just as many attempts at destabilizing the West by the Soviets through support of various "wars of national liberation" and insurgents of all stripes. But I think there'd be less success at that thanks to the continued brutality of Stalin both within Russia and beyond. Throw in the continued purging of anyone even remotely competent within the Soviet Union and it just keeps getting worse.