WI Stalin kept Greek Civil War going?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Stalin did not interfere with the British suppression of Greek Communists in 1944. When the Greek Civil War broke out after WWII, however, Soviet bloc states did provide backing to the Communist guerrillas. However, as quoted in Milovan Djilas’ “Conversations with Stalin”,by late 1947 or early 1948, Stalin had concluded the geopolitical odds were stacked against any Communist success in Greece, Britain and America simply would not allow Communist victory there. From that, he concluded the war should be wound down.


But that was not the sole plausible conclusion from Stalin’s defeatist analysis on Greece. He could have judged that although there was no hope of Communist victory, it would be relatively inexpensive to prolong the Greek Civil War and keep it going, and America would be compelled to keep spending resources propping up its side, and that the Communist bloc could get the better end of this exchange.


What changes, if anything, in US Cold War strategy if a fairly intensive guerrilla war is continuing in Greece through 1950-51, and this requires continual rotations of US advisors along with a high level of military support?


Is the US ability to commit to fight in Korea affected at all?


If the Greek insurgency is still kicking in 1950-51 and enjoying Soviet support via Bulgaria and Albania, how is Yugoslavia reacting? Are they still providing support, or have they quit doing so because of the split with the USSR?


Longer-lasting Greek Communist insurgency will certainly be frustrating to the US, demanding, at a minimum, greater US resources to counter it. However, would the persistence and frustration of conflict there lead the US to any escalatory measures, bringing us anywhere closer to the brink of WW3 than OTL crises like Berlin and Korea?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
It seems to me the Communist side could have kept this going longer for the small price of a little bit more Soviet attention, more Bulgarian and Albanian “beans and bullets” and Greek lives.

In turn the the US would have spent several times as much and rotated through more of its officer cadre as advisors. Your thoughts?
 
A more lasting communist guerrila in Greece could mean more US support for the occasional military junta dictatorships of Greece, such as the "generals' regime" of 1967-74, under the pretext of "keeping stability". This has some minor effects over Cyprus.
 
Over time might this Greek Civil War take on a more ethnic character? Perhaps Albanians, Aromanian, Bulgarian and Turkish minorities could give the conflict a more ethnic character? Albania might want to expand south. Aromanian nationalists might desire independance. Bulgaria might want to expand south and south-west. Turkey might want to possess Eastern Thrace.
 
I wonder what are the chances that you could have a divided greece as an out come of the conflict?

If Greek had won the Greco-Turkish War and taken over large portion of Asian Minor. This hypothetical Greek state shares boarder with Soviet Union in Caucasus mountain. I can't image Stalin would give up. The best scenario for Stalin would be a divided Greece. A Western Greece would locate in today's and Western part of Asian Minor. The Eastern Greece will be today's Turkey.
 
If Greek had won the Greco-Turkish War and taken over large portion of Asian Minor. This hypothetical Greek state shares boarder with Soviet Union in Caucasus mountain. I can't image Stalin would give up. The best scenario for Stalin would be a divided Greece. A Western Greece would locate in today's and Western part of Asian Minor. The Eastern Greece will be today's Turkey.

Ooh now that is a fun idea for a scenario. I am now getting fun ideas of imagining Constantinople divided like Berlin :coldsweat:
 
If the civil war is still going in 1952 will Greece join NATO?

If they do would that get other NATO members contributing forces, what would that do to Britain and Frances colonial commitments?
If they don't and Turkey does would that give propaganda ammo to the Communist side?
 
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