Now bear with me on this. As we know, Stalin was an enormously paranoid insane man. In OTL he rejected the idea that Germany would attack because he knew his army wasn't ready and because he didn't believe Hitler would start a two-front war. Suppose he has a fit of paranoia (after all, intelligence on the German build-up had been coming in for months by June 1941) somewhere in winter of 1940/1941 and orders a pre-emptive offensive to commence in May 1941 in spite of the pleading of his generals, some which he purges as they go down kicking and screaming about Soviet defeat.
What would the results have been of a Soviet attack in May 1941? Quick defeat or a long war? My guess is that Stalin surrenders after a few months after severe losses and with the Germans running around in Ukraine and closing in on Moscow to come back later after killing whoever he blames for his mistakes and rebuilding his army.
PS: Do bear in mind that German prep wasn't complete yet (more like three quarters finished).
What would the results have been of a Soviet attack in May 1941? Quick defeat or a long war? My guess is that Stalin surrenders after a few months after severe losses and with the Germans running around in Ukraine and closing in on Moscow to come back later after killing whoever he blames for his mistakes and rebuilding his army.
PS: Do bear in mind that German prep wasn't complete yet (more like three quarters finished).