WI Stalin had really wanted to attack in 1941?

Now bear with me on this. As we know, Stalin was an enormously paranoid insane man. In OTL he rejected the idea that Germany would attack because he knew his army wasn't ready and because he didn't believe Hitler would start a two-front war. Suppose he has a fit of paranoia (after all, intelligence on the German build-up had been coming in for months by June 1941) somewhere in winter of 1940/1941 and orders a pre-emptive offensive to commence in May 1941 in spite of the pleading of his generals, some which he purges as they go down kicking and screaming about Soviet defeat.

What would the results have been of a Soviet attack in May 1941? Quick defeat or a long war? My guess is that Stalin surrenders after a few months after severe losses and with the Germans running around in Ukraine and closing in on Moscow to come back later after killing whoever he blames for his mistakes and rebuilding his army.

PS: Do bear in mind that German prep wasn't complete yet (more like three quarters finished).
 
If we Stalin win quickly it would mean a lot of saved lives as large portion of German atrocities in the against Slavic people are avoided, also many Jews would be spared death.
A lack of overwhelming atrocities and epic battle against Germany would also mean less powerfull position of Stalin. Perhaps the military combined with Beria would overthrow him. We could have a Stalin liberated Europe within 1950-neutralised socialist Germany. Interestingly for all his personal flaws and tendencies Beria was quite interested in reforms of economical and political nature. So SU would start its modernisation way sooner with a more mild economical tendencies and far more diverse public opinions.
Death camps however would still be found and atrocities made in occupied Eastern Europe(like AB Aktion or 1939 mass murderers) exposed.
Needless to say that German forces would likely still committ many atrocities during the defense against the "untermenschen". So there also will be trials and punishment for what Germany did.
Perhaps Germans would would snap and use chemical weapons as last resort ?
However I think we can expect Europe to be liberated from Nazi Germany and its extermination by about 1943. There will be some initial atrocities and executions by NKVD and Soviet forces but as in OTL they will not be up to scale of German ones-so the net benefit would be much more saved lives.
Also I don't think Soviets would gain more then Germany in the West.
Italy and France would likely be taken by Allies-with perhaps Italy making a turn towards Allied camp.
 
Don't you think the Red Army would lose, considering the sorry state it was in in 1941?
Well if we consider that a large part of its defeat according to the supporters of "Stalin wanted to attack" theory was that it planned to invade Germany, then I guess we could assume it would do better. Also German army would be in bad shape, since it actually DID want to attack and would suffer initial setbacks.
 
If Russia was to attack in 1941 then it would be a Russian army that was still heavily equipped with tanks and aircraft which were obsolete. The Germans would do quie well on the defensive and then would mount a counter attack which would result in a drive deep into Russia.
 
Don't you think the Red Army would lose, considering the sorry state it was in in 1941?

The German army was not fully prepared and they had no plans for a defensive strategy.

Of course the Soviets were also at a strategic disadvantage here and using Zhukov's pre-emptive strike plan would be folly as it ignores strong German forces in the North of Poland.

What I would do is mobilise and wait for Germany to begin the invasion of Yugoslavia. After the invasion has begun order the Red Air Force to begin an all out attack on the Luftwaffe deploy Kamikaze tactics if a juicy target presents itself.

Then launch all A-class troops with the most modern equipment into Romania and try and knock out the oil fields there whilst holding the line everywhere else.

Hopefully this will catch the Germans will be caught with their pants down and keep the Greeks in the fight.
 
are we all ignoring that there was an unusually long spring rain season in 1941. the spring mud was still around for a good part of may it would be very challenging to move up massive field armies in eastern poland the baltics and the ukraine. their supply lines because of the roads would be tight. also the germans by not having a major defensive line in poland could commence mobile delaying tactics that would bleed the red army dry.

the cleverest thing stalin could have done in 1941 assuming he knew an attack was coming would be to evacuate back to the stalin line. he stacked a lot of weak divisions on the border that were quickly lost. if stocked and manned the stalin line well with mechanized reserves behind it he could have chopped op the german army and won a decisive victory
 

Bearcat

Banned
This is basically Suvorov's Icebreaker thesis. That Stalin was coming to ravage western Europe. Without access to the original sources its hard for us to say with certainty, but I fall into the camp of expecting a quick bloody advance, followed by a massive and bloody debacle as the Sovs lose momentum, outrun their supply lines, and get schooled by the Wehrmacht.

What happens next depends on the US. If we give the USSR lend-lease trucks and jeeps and a/c anyway, they eventually halt the Germans and slowly crush them.

If the initial attack keeps the US 'neutral' on the eastern front, the whole thing might bog down into a vastly bloody stalemate.

My gut is that Adolph still issues idiotic 'stand and die' orders, and still thinks he is far better positioned than he is, and finds a way to utterly Charlie Foxtrot the whole works by the end of summer 1945.
 
I fall into the camp of expecting a quick bloody advance, followed by a massive and bloody debacle as the Sovs lose momentum, outrun their supply lines, and get schooled by the Wehrmacht.
Count me in this camp too. Nobody going to stop Red Army East of Wistula (given the opportunity to pick time and place, Red Army could deliver quite a punch), but, once initial steam is run out, superior (at this moment) German organization is going to weigh in.

What happens next depends on the US. If we give the USSR lend-lease trucks and jeeps and a/c anyway, they eventually halt the Germans and slowly crush them.

If the initial attack keeps the US 'neutral' on the eastern front, the whole thing might bog down into a vastly bloody stalemate.
You know, if war is fought between Warsaw and Brest (OK, make it Minsk), it means that Leningrad, Kiev, Stalingrad, Kharkov, Voronezh are busy producing tanks, tractors and trucks for the Red Army, Moscow and Nizhni Novgorod are working full-steam instead of being pounded by Luftwaffe and USSR does not suffer madness of mass evacuation. Very few people realise that USSR lost half of it's industrial heartland (second half being Ural and upcoming Siberian cities) in the Summer 1941. Would it be able to keep at least part of it, it needs a LL almost as much as Usain Bolt needs crutches to win Olympics.
 
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