Suppose a scenario where Stalin suffers an unexpected stroke or some freak accident, around late July or early August 1939. By that point, Germany had already determined to go to war with Poland soon, France and Britain had repudiated their policy of appeasement, Soviet-Western talks mostly reached a dead end, while Soviet-German negotiations were still ongoing, however with no agreement yet in sight. What happens next? Several issues to consider
1. first of all, Stalin’s succession. This is just after the great purge, thus there aren’t many people in positions of leadership who could possibly inherit a stable government. There’s Beria I assume, as horrible as that sounds. But other candidates for Stalin’s OTL successor like Malenkov and Khrushchev were not yet senior enough to be considered for the role. I don’t know enough about Soviet internal politics of the time to answer this more clearly.
2. Perhaps more importantly, effect on the outbreak of ww2. I’m gonna throw a guess and say that the war starts as per OTL, however without a German-Soviet pact as the Soviet government is in too much chaos to properly negotiate. As a result the Germans conclude that they would also be in too much chaos to resist a German occupation of Poland. Thus the Germans are able to occupy all of poland. However no Molotov-Ribbentrop also means reduced trade between Germany and the USSR, which affects Germany’s longer-term strategic planning.
3. Further in down the line, when do the two countries go to war? Cause I think we can all agree that would happen eventually any way.
1. first of all, Stalin’s succession. This is just after the great purge, thus there aren’t many people in positions of leadership who could possibly inherit a stable government. There’s Beria I assume, as horrible as that sounds. But other candidates for Stalin’s OTL successor like Malenkov and Khrushchev were not yet senior enough to be considered for the role. I don’t know enough about Soviet internal politics of the time to answer this more clearly.
2. Perhaps more importantly, effect on the outbreak of ww2. I’m gonna throw a guess and say that the war starts as per OTL, however without a German-Soviet pact as the Soviet government is in too much chaos to properly negotiate. As a result the Germans conclude that they would also be in too much chaos to resist a German occupation of Poland. Thus the Germans are able to occupy all of poland. However no Molotov-Ribbentrop also means reduced trade between Germany and the USSR, which affects Germany’s longer-term strategic planning.
3. Further in down the line, when do the two countries go to war? Cause I think we can all agree that would happen eventually any way.