WI: Stalin dies, just before the Yalta Conference

[woweed]

Let's take as our POD that, on February, 4, 1945, just as the Yalta Conference is soon to begin, Joseph Stalin passes away, of what are apparently natural causes. What next? Victory is pretty much assured by this point, but who is Stalin's successor? How is the end of the war, and the start of the Cold War, affected by this? Your thoughts?

 

[A Repentant Heretic]

Is this really ASB? The POD sounds pretty possible to me.

 

[Arcavia]

The most likely person to me seems to be Molotov. Beria is detested by the remainder of the Soviet political elite, the generals are extremely unlikely to want to give off the slightest appearance of attempting a takeover, and Malenkov is rather isolated. Meanwhile Molotov has already been Stalin's right hand man at prior conferences and has also shown he is able to make deals with the British and Americans. Thus Molotov takes over for Stalin at Yalta, but I doubt he would adopt any negotiating position different from Stalin. However, by many accounts it was Roosevelt's well-developed personal relationship with Stalin that kept Yalta and other conferences going smoothly (consider the old joke about *only* summarily executing 49,000 Nazis) and so with Molotov instead of Stalin being present (whom he knew but not as well) the conference and thus postwar world are likely to go less smoothly. However from what I can tell Molotov was a fairly rational and pragmatic statesman so I doubt any war would start--neither power has any incentive to keep fighting after Germany is defeated. So I'd imagine there would be more tension as borders were established, including a renewed race for Berlin possibly resulting in a unified pro-West Germany (though that's only if the West really wants to irritate the Soviets which I doubt Roosevelt will want to do in '45 esp. because De Gaulle and the French also do not want to see a unified Germany) but afterwards I'm not sure the Berlin Crisis or the like would occur or escalate as much if Molotov stays in power and borders emerge as OTL. (assuming Molotov keeps de facto power for a few years after the war). However Molotov (perhaps ironically given that he signed Molotov-Ribbentrop) was distinctly prosemite as far as I can tell--he had a developed relationship with the first Israeli representative to the Union--so I'd almost think the roles of the USA and CCCP would be reversed with respect to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Other butterflies might also be large but I can't think of any changes that would be made. This of course assumes that Molotov will stay in power, but I imagine he will for at least a few years as high-ranking political operatives return from the wartime situation and rebuild their intrigues...

Oh and as for the question of how ASB this is I very much doubt it is at all, Stalin was never the healthiest person and I have no doubt that a minor health-related POD in '41 could greatly alter his stress throughout the war (maybe he rather than nearly having a nervous breakdown but then coming out of his shell with a "let's do this" attitude he keeps his frustration more bottled up and cannot process it as well) not impacting the war but resulting in his death by January '45. A little unlikely but certainly not ASB.

 

[woweed]

Bump. Any takers?

 

[Alanith]

Beria suffers a "Unfortunate health related incident" or is "Killed while visiting the front by a cowardly, treacherous facist attack."

 

[Major Major]

Where does Andrei Zhdanov come in? Stalin seems to have favored him, as far as he favored anyone, but Zhdanov was a heavy drinker. Also, he was from Leningrad, and for some reason Leningrad party leaders never seemed to do very well.

Or will he suffer an "unfortunate health-related incident", too?

In a different note, Polina Zhemchuzhina, Molotov's wife, was close to the Israelis in Moscow, befriending Golda Meir, which was one reason she was arrested and imprisoned in 1948 (that and proposing that the Crimea, not Birobidzhan, be the Jewish autonomous oblast).

 

[SandroPertini98]

What about Molotov's plan to create a great federation of communist nations? Can Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Mongolia join in the Soviet Union?
Without Stalin Dimitrov survives and Bulgaria (and Albania) joins in Yugoslavian Federation. No Stalin-Tito and Kruscev-Mao splits.
Molotov was a great diplomat, a sort of Soviet Talleyrand or Metternich, so I imagine he will be able to strike a deal about the proposed German Reunification (disarmed and with a compulsory neutrality) in 1952.

 

[woweed]

What about Molotov's plan to create a great federation of communist nations? Can Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Mongolia join in the Soviet Union?
Without Stalin Dimitrov survives and Bulgaria (and Albania) joins in Yugoslavian Federation. No Stalin-Tito and Kruscev-Mao splits.
Molotov was a great diplomat, a sort of Soviet Talleyrand or Metternich, so I imagine he will be able to strike a deal about the proposed German Reunification (disarmed and with a compulsory neutrality) in 1952.

Oh, could be interesting.

 

[Arcavia]

Zhdanov IMO might have a very good chance of being an (at least temporary) successor to Stalin even three months later, but given the wartime situation the Stavka and Politburo would not tolerate him--his drunkenness would mark him as rather incompetent, his Leningrad roots would alienate him from much of the party base, and he had little to no real military or foreign policy experience at this point. Meanwhile Molotov is well informed about the foreign-policy situation and is considered by all to be nothing if not competent. As deputy Premier he has been groomed to step into place if necessary. Thus I think he will be the natural choice to assume power at this point; in the next few years Malenkov and Zhdanov might put up a challenge (of whose challenges Malenkov's would undoubtedly be the strongest) but I doubt that especially without their postwar patronage by Stalin they'd really be able to challenge Molotov in an entrenched position.

While he did follow Stalinist ideology very devoutly, Molotov was also a realist at heart--honestly a bit of a Soviet Kissinger--and I could easily see him doing many things with regards to the Central European issues. Honestly I could see him plausibly having many reactions to things like the Hungarian Uprising and Prague Spring between what happens in '45 and '56 though that assumes that they would not be butterflied, which I imagine they would be if one removes the reformist sentiment following Stalin's death IOTL.