I think the general consensus here is that Lenin wouldn't be replaced by Trotsky no matter what, really. I don't know who it would likely be, then. Zinoviev, perhaps.
I don't see the Soviet Union falling under control of one dictator. I see some kind of collective leadership that keeps Trotsky out of control, but still within the Soviet Union and still a member of the Politburo. While Zinoviev may remain top dog for a while, he will never consolidate power like Stalin nor be as ruthless and it is always possible some other Old Bolshevik rises to topple him.
I think by default the Soviets will run a middle course between the Leftists under Trotsky and the Rightists (NEP) under Bukharin with limited and tactical dashes to the left or right based on whatever the politics called for at the time. I think so much effort would be spent simply beating off Trotsky that no one would dominate like Stalin did. But given enough time, who knows what may happen.
It sounds like a far more "democratic" Soviet Union.
Especially with Trotskyists and the Right-Opposition both jockeying for influence within the government. Perhaps the ban on factions may even be lifted?
Neither of those two men had the leadership capabilities of Trotsky.
Neither did Trotsky; the man had a ludicrously inflated opinion of himself and never failed to let everyone know it.
Democratic Soviet Union ?!
Trotsky was reckless just like Stalin
He belief in Soviet System, but was ready to sacrifice million peoples , if it give a benefit for USSR
He push His Idea to industrialize the Soviet Union, Stalin filched that plan after Trotsky was exiled from USSR.
A Soviet Union under Trotsky would have heavy Industrialization and armament of Red Army, Trotsky would give dam if million soviets died in process...
Biggest divergence , Trotsky is not the short temper Paranoid Isolationist called himself Stalin
Trotskyists in contrast to Stalinism, Export the People Revolution to other Nations
Means in 1930s the USSR will be active player in World Politic much to hate of Capitalist Nation
like active role in Spanish and Chinese civil war, support the Communist in Weimar Republic, France, Britain, USA etc. also in there Colonies.
It will make allot Bad Blood under Europan Leaders
It would be logic if European nations would form a coalition against the USSR, even begin war against Communism
Wildcard in this scenario is Weimar Republic it will fall but what rise out it's ashes ?
Fascistic Third Reich or communist German People Republic ?
As far as I understood the history of Stalin, he was more conderned about himself and his position of power, as with some ideology, esp. after the revolution. To push himself he was able to switch sides, ideological positions and opinions, at least officially.
I don't say, that he didn't had an ideological understanding, but he seems to have been able to ... 'adadpt' to changing flows of it in the party.
Trotsky seems to have been some kind of a pain in the arse with his arrogance. But as he stood up against Lenin against NEP i.e., let me think that his 'ideological drive' was stronger than Stalins. Therefore I would assume, he wouldn't create that kind of personal dictator/leadership Stalin did.
(Pls correct me if I'm wrong.)
Mate I put "democratic" in quotation marks - why are you taking it literally? Of course the Soviet Union won't become a democracy without Stalin, Bolshevism would not allow that. What I meant was that Soviet leadership would be far more collegiate and collectivist - rule by committees and troikas - rather than a single totalitarian absolute dictator like under Stalinism.
And no, Trotsky would not be absolute dictator, so I would discount a lot of your predictions there.
It sounds like a far more "democratic" Soviet Union.
It wouldn't be democratic. It would be a party dictatorship but without a single domineering figure like in the Khruschev or Brezhnev years. More consensual leadership at the very top level with more intriguing, but the ordinary people would still be grinded to dust and have no say in what happens to that. And if the NEP is ever abandoned (and this is a distinct possibility), we may even see the mass famines and dekulakization. And there will still be the NKVD and Gulag, although they'll be more limited than they were under Stalin.