WI: Stalin betrays Hitler in Poland and invades the Reich

[GauchoBadger]

So, assume Stalin is a bit more deceptive. He still negotiates an invasion of Poland with Hitler, and when Germany executes the plan, he also invades. However, when both german and soviet forces meet, Stalin declares war on Germany and attempts to invade the country.
-How much of a chance do the reds have to defeat Germany? I reckon that their selling of armaments to the germans at a cheap price for the duration of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact really helped the execution of Operation Barbarossa. In retrospect, does Stalin deciding to not purge some of his more competent generals in the 1930's help the invasion?
-How do the western powers (Britian, France, and others, possibly the US) react to this? Will they concur since Hitler was harassing the western european powers good time in the 1930's or will they look at it with suspicion, like as part of a soviet plan of dominating eastern Europe and acquiring a springboard for inciting a revolution in what's left of Europe?
-How does this affect the Winter War? Will the soviets be forced to retreat in order to not piss off the western powers more?
-In case and after Germany is defeated, what will the new political scenario in Europe look like?

 

[Kingdom]

In 1939? The Soviets were in no position to launch an invasion of Germany.

 

[Lalli]

Stalin failed to conquer Finland which was militarily much weaker so things would be even worse for Red Army.

 

[kclcmdr]

The Soviet Union logistical capacity was nominal and their spare parts allocatment and transports were dismal at best and only good probably for defensive measures...

 

[GauchoBadger]

Stalin failed to conquer Finland which was militarily much weaker so things would be even worse for Red Army.

That's why i proposed for them to instead make peace with the finns and spend more troops into Germany, or for Stalin to not have purged so many generals.
Why so many noes? Clearly there must have been a PoD for such a scenario to seem feasible for the soviets. Stalin being less paranoid, at least.
That, or i'm overestimating.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well the Soviets have no modern AFVs, shit logistics, no modern aircraft comparable to the Me109E, and a hostile Japan going to be encroaching on the Soviets in the Far East very shortly. As it was the Soviets had issues fighting the Poles in 1939. They also had broken up their armor into penny packets and distributed them around, the logistics out of East Poland were abysmal, and even the disaster of their performance in Finland had yet to reveal their worst flaws, which instead would come against the Germans, who were not the people you want to find that out the hard way against, especially offensively. Trying to invade Germany via East Poland's logistics, while not first dealing with Romania, Japan, or the Baltic states is not going to end well for Stalin or the Red Army in 1939, but it does help the Allies immensely and screws Germany in terms of raw materials and food. Why would Stalin want to do this and put his forces at risk?

 

[Dunning Kruger]

So you have the German army in Poland and you want to attack them? A better scenario is, if the French put up a better fight, you declare war in 1940 or 1941 when the German army is bogged down in the West. But that didnt happen.

 

[DrakonFin]

Stalin failed to conquer Finland which was militarily much weaker so things would be even worse for Red Army.

The events of the Winter War would not be entirely relevant for this campaign. Unlike in Finland, which was considered a military nonentity by Stalin, here the Red Army would have been prepared to go against a peer opponent. What ever we think of him, Stalin was not such a fool as to allow his armies go against Germany half-cocked. The terrain would be more suitable for the Soviets and the Red Army troops could attack on a wider front than in Finland where they were crammed into the Karelian isthmus and, north of the Ladoga, forced into narrow roads through snowy wilderness. This would allow them more options for strategy and room to maneuver. The war would also start earlier and the winter would not be as cold in these more southern areas.

Really, in general I believe we need to stop using the Winter War as an all-encompassing example of the weaknesses of the Red Army in the late 1930s. There are several specific reasons the Soviets performed so badly in the early part of the Winter War (and why they did a lot better in the end) which are essentially tied to the Soviet decisions that led to the war, the nature of Soviet preparation for it (or the lack thereof) as well as the nature of Finland as an enemy, the geography and conditions of Finland as a theatre of war and finally the reality of fighting during one of the coldest winters on record. None of these things, which IMO mostly acted as a force multiplier for the Finns IOTL, would be the same if the USSR fought other enemies in 1939.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

The Red Army needed until at least 1942 to recover from the purges and modernisations etc. Between 1939 and 1941 there were 20 extra months that this recovery had time to take place in. Even in 1941, the Red Army was brought to the brink of utter destruction.

Invading Germany in 1939 would have brought greater devastation to the USSR than Barbarossa did, and Barbarossa was literally 25 miles from conquering it.

Sure, Germany built up a bit between 1939 and 1941, but its air force was better as it hadn't fought the Battle of Britain. It hadn't suffered losses in France. It still had the units (and commanders) sent to the Afrika Korps. But Russia built up one key advantage in those years: the T-34, which made more of a difference than the Pz4 and Pz3 did.

September is close enough to winter that Russia's best ally will prevent an invasion in late 1939, but come 1940 Hitler will seize EVERY chance to destroy communism, and Stalin has just given him a fantastic one. The Low Countries are still neutral, so he doesn't have to worry about the 2nd front too much.

- BNC

 

[BootOnFace]

Get rid of the Great Purge and then we'll talk.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Get rid of the Great Purge and then we'll talk.

That pretty much means getting rid of Stalin. He was too consumed by paranoia to allow however many thousand threats to linger. Without Stalin, you also probably don't get all of the things (5 yr plan etc.) that got Russia out of the hell hole it was in during WWI.

- BNC

 

[BootOnFace]

Stalin actually ran on extending the NEP while Trotsky/Zinoviev was the planned economy opposition. It looks like the 5 year plans happen anyway.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's why i proposed for them to instead make peace with the finns and spend more troops into Germany, or for Stalin to not have purged so many generals.
Why so many noes?

Because the contrarians here like nothing better than to pick apart the premise of most AHs. They'll refer to themselves as realists, but in many cases they're just....

History is full of examples of an aggressor acting inconceivably foolhardy and invading their enemy whilst ill prepared and with poor intel. Germany's own invasion of Russia in 1941 is a good example. Stalin should know that Britain and France will declare war with Germany invades Poland, though he doesn't believe that their respective armies are themselves tiny and poorly managed and equipped. So, Germany invades Poland, Wallies declare war on Germany, then Stalin, expecting Germany to be facing an immediate offensive from France, invades Poland, and keeps heading west into Prussia.

 

[Veiovis]

Because the contrarians here like nothing better than to pick apart the premise of most AHs. They'll refer to themselves as realists, but in many cases they're just dicks.

Its the entire purpose of this part of the forum do have discussions about alternate historical events and what would realistacally happen. There are parts of the forum were improbality or even impossibility are meaningless,but they are that,other parts. So yeah,picking apart premises should and must be done here,and calling the posters dicks for it is completly inappropriate.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Its the entire purpose of this part of the forum do have discussions about alternate historical events and what would realistacally happen. There are parts of the forum were improbality or even impossibility are meaningless,but they are that,other parts. So yeah,picking apart premises should and must be done here,and calling the posters dicks for it is completly inappropriate.

I appreciate you're trying to look at it rationally, but these folks know that what they're doing is not contributing anything.

However, for the more sensitive among us I will edit out the Richards.

 

[Kingdom]

Because the contrarians here like nothing better than to pick apart the premise of most AHs. They'll refer to themselves as realists, but in many cases they're just....

I think that is uncalled for, he asked for the chance of a successful invasion of Germany in 1939 by the Soviet Union and we answered his question.

 

[KACKO]

There is a Polish book called Red Blitzkrieg about Soviet campaign against Poland. It deales also with breakdowns of armor an vehicles so... Soviets were facing similar problems Germans did in Austria 1938 I guess.

 

[Magnum]

Going with the OP and ignoring the "why":

Red Army fails to make any progress and generally makes a laughing stock of themselves, but that's ok, since the autumn rains would be coming in soon.

Once winter arrives, Germany could in theory attack east, but they run into the same problem they had OTL, namely their lack of munitions that convinced even Hitler to postpone Fall Gelb into '40, so any offensive will be limited at best.

Romania remains pro-French and Baltics remain neutral.

Sickel-Cut becomes impossible with a 2-front war, Allies&Soviets win in '42 at the latest when Germany runs out of oil, rubber, manganese and grain.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think that is uncalled for, ....we answered his question.

...and so did I. He asked why there were so many contrarian replies. But fair enough.

 

[Johnrankins]

A smarter move by Stalin is to wait until the Invasion of France. In that scenario Germany is pretty much screwed. Almost all their armies are in the west and there is little to stop Stalin from taking all of Poland Stalin may or may not be stopped in Eastern Germany.