What if the Soviet Union declared war on Germany just as Fall Gelb is getting underway? The Red Army is in no shape to go to war with Germany after just winning a pyhrric victory against Finland, but let's say they do it anyway. The Germans had pretty much every trained division they had on the Western Front against France, so the Soviets could certainly make some early progress. Commies marching into East Prussia would scare the hell out of the German leadership. A disrupted Fall Gelb might not be such an easy victory for the Germans, and they'd be caught in a two-front war that they can't realistically win.
WI Stalin backstabs Hitler in 1940
- Thread starter Dr. Luny
- Start date
I am not certain if that would actually be that bad for the Germans.
The Soviets are probably gonna screw this one up. They may manage to take East Prussia, but will have to drive through half of Poland before hitting Germany.
In the mean time, the Germans can wrap up the Western Front and then refocus on the Eastern Front, sweeping the Soviets out of Poland.
I guess the Germans would not try to take Norway in this ATL, but I am not so certain if the British would either intervene, since Germany would not be an immediate threat in this ATL.
The Soviets are probably gonna screw this one up. They may manage to take East Prussia, but will have to drive through half of Poland before hitting Germany.
In the mean time, the Germans can wrap up the Western Front and then refocus on the Eastern Front, sweeping the Soviets out of Poland.
I guess the Germans would not try to take Norway in this ATL, but I am not so certain if the British would either intervene, since Germany would not be an immediate threat in this ATL.
Germany had already taken Noray and Denmark by this point.
But considering the weakness of the Germans on the Polish border at that time (around 18 weak divisions) and a large deficit of planes and armour could allow the Soviets to roll over them using numbers alone (although despite a lack of T-34's/KV-1's most Soviet tanks were better than the Germans, at in theory). The problem is convincing Hitler to still launch the attack on France when it's clear that the Red Army's amassing troops on his border.
Such a move would be unlikely, as Stalin was not suicidal. Such a move would be just that, in the meaning it would destroy the Red Army on foreign ground, when the Germans countered the attack, by shifting some divissions from the West to the East by their elaborate railsystem. This capacity is not to be underestimated, as it technically meant that the German Army could transport several armycorpses in only a matter of days from West to East, if needed that badly.
For the War in the West, it would mean only a slight delay, since the remainign German Armies there would still be able to crush the western Allies, although perhaps a bit slower, due to their now more limmited numbers on the ground and in the air, but still far more powerfull units remained to fight off the Western Allies, who were inferiour in quality and equipment.
The Red Army would likely be succesfull in capturing part of German occupied Polland, but not much more, given its lack of mobility in 1940. The more mobile Germans would encircle and crush the Russians, the way they did in 1941. The result would be an early on assault on the now severely weakened USSR, who was only just starting to shift military industy to east of the Ural and was therefore very badly situated to fight already in 1940. Without this industry, which could already be destroyed in 1940 by the advancing Germans, if the scenario as mentioned unfolded, the USSR was technocally incapacitated adn unable to hold itself against even a modest German assault.
For the War in the West, it would mean only a slight delay, since the remainign German Armies there would still be able to crush the western Allies, although perhaps a bit slower, due to their now more limmited numbers on the ground and in the air, but still far more powerfull units remained to fight off the Western Allies, who were inferiour in quality and equipment.
The Red Army would likely be succesfull in capturing part of German occupied Polland, but not much more, given its lack of mobility in 1940. The more mobile Germans would encircle and crush the Russians, the way they did in 1941. The result would be an early on assault on the now severely weakened USSR, who was only just starting to shift military industy to east of the Ural and was therefore very badly situated to fight already in 1940. Without this industry, which could already be destroyed in 1940 by the advancing Germans, if the scenario as mentioned unfolded, the USSR was technocally incapacitated adn unable to hold itself against even a modest German assault.
Germany would had rush the divisions from the western to eastern fronts. I give the Soviets would have taking Warsaw but stop right after then push back. But The West would have attack germany in the mean time.Germany cuts a deal with UK and France to give Poland its freedom after beating the Soviets. In the end Poland gets some soviet terr. and one of the batlic states most likey it would be Latvia and Germany would get the Danzig. Stalin would been remove by the end of 40 then a peace deal is cut with Germany. But the war would have start again in 42.
I think you're underestimating the effect this would have in the West. The Germans would have to shift a substantial number of divisions, including armor to the East to stop the Soviets. This would almost certainly slow down the Blitzkrieg and give the Allies time to regroup. Once the rapid progress of the attack is slowed, the Allies have a chance to enter the fight on their own terms, and that could mean defeat for the Germans on the Western Front.
Don't understimate the Soviets. I'm not sure how much of what the Soviets had in 1941 had already been built, but they had had 15,000 Tanks on the Eastern Front on June 22, 1941. If they have even a third of that number they will significantly outnumber and outgun the Germans, even if the Germans are able to use all of their armor against them. At the time the Allies had almost as many tanks as the Germans and they were on average much better gunned and armored than German tanks. Both the Allies and the Soviets have more guns than the Germans, and the Soviets have an airforce that gets to start the campaign largely intact.
Don't understimate the Soviets. I'm not sure how much of what the Soviets had in 1941 had already been built, but they had had 15,000 Tanks on the Eastern Front on June 22, 1941. If they have even a third of that number they will significantly outnumber and outgun the Germans, even if the Germans are able to use all of their armor against them. At the time the Allies had almost as many tanks as the Germans and they were on average much better gunned and armored than German tanks. Both the Allies and the Soviets have more guns than the Germans, and the Soviets have an airforce that gets to start the campaign largely intact.
It would take the Russians several weeks to mobilise their armies. Their air force would have a field day, and since the Germans were busy in the west, what could they do about it?
Meanwhile the French can just keep retreating, avoiding encirclement battles, and wait while half the German army leaves, which lets them outnumber the rest.
Not to mention the psychological consequences.
Nah, the General Staff would just shoot Hitler and make peace.
Meanwhile the French can just keep retreating, avoiding encirclement battles, and wait while half the German army leaves, which lets them outnumber the rest.
Not to mention the psychological consequences.
Nah, the General Staff would just shoot Hitler and make peace.