WI Stable Rouran?

The destabilisation of the Rouran from the late 5th century onwards till its fall in the 6th century are often connected to various important phenomena:
the appearance of the Hephtalites, the migration of the Avars, the rise of the Göktürks, the unification of China from the North.

What if the Rouran confederacy had kept going strong for, say, another century or two? What would have been the effects on Iran, Sogdia, China, the ERE etc.?
 
The destabilisation of the Rouran from the late 5th century onwards till its fall in the 6th century are often connected to various important phenomena:
the appearance of the Hephtalites, the migration of the Avars, the rise of the Göktürks, the unification of China from the North.

What if the Rouran confederacy had kept going strong for, say, another century or two? What would have been the effects on Iran, Sogdia, China, the ERE etc.?

It is a major boon for the Sassanian Empire, Iran is more prosperous and better able to fight wars in the West. Sassanian Indo-Persia also lasts longer, with interesting effects.

fasquardon
 
Well sooner or later the Rouran will fall to some sort of upheaval. The ease with which they were displaced by the Turks speaks to some serious problems within their state, brought on, likely, by failed wars with China and also just demographic shifts and climatological factors that will be difficult to butterfly away.

The Rourans were, by all accounts a tiny part of their broader union, rulers in a very confederal state. Accordingly they were forced to make a lot of compromises and themselves were not very strong.

I don't think any of the Hunnic migrations will be stopped by a continued Rouran, since I don't buy that the Hepthalites or any of their cousins were under Rouran hegemony, but the Avars and Turks will have their trajectory altered. (The Avars will likely never exist) It seems likely to me that continued Rouran dominance would just ensure a totally different set of tribes and language groups come into power in a few generations. Maybe the Tiele or the Gaoche? An Iranian language might well remain prominent on the steppes far longer. Regardless, the character and culture of the steppe will be very different.

Now, to answer your question, since the Kushan and Kidarite conquests of central asia already happened, not too much will have changed. I'd be wary of saying that undoing the Hepthalite conquest is a good thing, because I believe Central Asia started recovering under the early Hepthalites, and before that point, urban society and agriculture had declined significantly. Then again, it's possible that the cities of Balkh and Sogd and Gandhara would have begun recovering on their own under the Kidarite rule. We just don't have enough understanding of Kidarite governance and policy to really make a clear statement, beyond the fact that they tended to imitate the Kushana in most things.

Butterflies might see Kidara survive. They were almost certainly beginning by the end of their existence to settle down en masse. They'd long had coinage and fixed temples and capitals and all the other trappings of a sedentary civilization, it was only a matter of time. If it does, the Sasanians are not going to be much stronger, because they'll have a major power on their back. And since the rise of the Gokturks was a (in)direct threat to the various Hunnic states, averting it averts a major threat to the powers that be in central asia.

By averting the rise of the Turks, you do however avert some of the migrations that are very familiar to any student of the migration era. By butterflies you can pretty much say good-bye to anything coming from the East in a recognizable form.

As long as the Rouran are around, the energies of their subject peoples will be focused on overcoming them, so that whichever subject successfully overthrows them can lead the confederacy. This is a problem for the Rouran because some of their subjects, like the Turks, are far more numerous than them. However on the flip side, it's a boon for the settled world because now the various Turkic tribes are busy punching up.

The one last thing I'd add is China almost certainly should be made to do worse in this scenario. Part of the reason the Rouran collapsed in the end is that they didn't fare well in their wars against China.
 
Well sooner or later the Rouran will fall to some sort of upheaval. The ease with which they were displaced by the Turks speaks to some serious problems within their state, brought on, likely, by failed wars with China and also just demographic shifts and climatological factors that will be difficult to butterfly away.

The Rourans were, by all accounts a tiny part of their broader union, rulers in a very confederal state. Accordingly they were forced to make a lot of compromises and themselves were not very strong.

I don't think any of the Hunnic migrations will be stopped by a continued Rouran, since I don't buy that the Hepthalites or any of their cousins were under Rouran hegemony, but the Avars and Turks will have their trajectory altered. (The Avars will likely never exist) It seems likely to me that continued Rouran dominance would just ensure a totally different set of tribes and language groups come into power in a few generations. Maybe the Tiele or the Gaoche? An Iranian language might well remain prominent on the steppes far longer. Regardless, the character and culture of the steppe will be very different.

Now, to answer your question, since the Kushan and Kidarite conquests of central asia already happened, not too much will have changed. I'd be wary of saying that undoing the Hepthalite conquest is a good thing, because I believe Central Asia started recovering under the early Hepthalites, and before that point, urban society and agriculture had declined significantly. Then again, it's possible that the cities of Balkh and Sogd and Gandhara would have begun recovering on their own under the Kidarite rule. We just don't have enough understanding of Kidarite governance and policy to really make a clear statement, beyond the fact that they tended to imitate the Kushana in most things.

Butterflies might see Kidara survive. They were almost certainly beginning by the end of their existence to settle down en masse. They'd long had coinage and fixed temples and capitals and all the other trappings of a sedentary civilization, it was only a matter of time. If it does, the Sasanians are not going to be much stronger, because they'll have a major power on their back. And since the rise of the Gokturks was a (in)direct threat to the various Hunnic states, averting it averts a major threat to the powers that be in central asia.

By averting the rise of the Turks, you do however avert some of the migrations that are very familiar to any student of the migration era. By butterflies you can pretty much say good-bye to anything coming from the East in a recognizable form.

As long as the Rouran are around, the energies of their subject peoples will be focused on overcoming them, so that whichever subject successfully overthrows them can lead the confederacy. This is a problem for the Rouran because some of their subjects, like the Turks, are far more numerous than them. However on the flip side, it's a boon for the settled world because now the various Turkic tribes are busy punching up.

The one last thing I'd add is China almost certainly should be made to do worse in this scenario. Part of the reason the Rouran collapsed in the end is that they didn't fare well in their wars against China.
Thanks for this very valuable input, Practical Lobster!
You being an expert on Hephthalites, and you having already mentioned that you don`t believe in the Hephthalites having been a part of the Rouran polity, what IS your no. 1 hypothesis of how the Hephthalites formed or where they came from or why they began building an empire in Transoxania?
 
It's impossible to say where the Hepthalites came from. :(

I've always leaned more towards the theories they came from the Tarim basin and were descendants of the Kangju (who may themselves have been the Sogdians) or perhaps an offshoot of the Kushan/Yuezhi. Ultimately, they began exploiting the weakening of the Kidara and assumed control over most of the Kidara territories in what is perhaps better described as a "palace coup" than an invasion.

Seemingly from the beginning they were a well organized, settled people, which would imply that they were already 'in place' near the lands they came to rule rather than newcomers.
 
Once again, thanks for your valuable input, Practical Lobster!
Do you happen to know where I can find out about the largest / most powerful towns in Transoxania / Sogdia / Dayuan / Zhetysu around the age of the Hephtalites?
 
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