WI: Special US Presidential election in 1974 following Nixon's resignation

Although this has never happened in OTL, if someone in the presidential line of succession below the Vice-President (i.e. the Speaker of the House and below) ends up assuming the Presidency, this triggers a special election to be held in November of that year. (Unless it happens in October, in which case the special election happens in November the following year.) Whoever wins that special election is elected to a full four-year term, resetting the Presidential election cycle.

In OTL, Vice-President Spiro Agnew resigned in October 1973 due to a bribery scandal, and Gerald Ford was appointed to replace him under the 25th Amendment in December of that year. President Richard Nixon then resigned in August 1974 due to the Watergate scandal, making Ford the President.

But, what if Nixon resigned before a replacement Vice-President was appointed? Maybe Agnew resigned later, or Nixon resigned earlier, or there was no 25th Amendment in TTL leaving the office of Vice-President vacant. But either way, Speaker of the House Carl Albert (D) would become President and a special election would be called for November 1974.

So, who would be the candidates? Who would win?
 
It's in the Presidential Succession Act 1792.

EDIT: Although I don't know if that part of the law was still current, actually. Later revisions changed the line of succession but they didn't address the special election thing at all, I think. Does that mean it's still law?
 
No, Carl Albert would have become Acting President and—under Title 3, Section 19(c) of the U.S. Code—would have been able to "act as President until the expiration of the then current Presidential term" - January 20, 1977.
 
The 25th Amendment and Presidential Succession Act of 1947 override the 1792 law. No special election provision exists anymore.
 
There was no provision for a special election in 1974. IIRC the 1886 law replaced the 1792 law. If there was a special election, the nominees of the parties would have to be made at a special convention. I think Reagan wins the Republican nomination. The Democratic nomination is harder to determine. There would have been a strong expectation of Kennedy to run. I doubt he would. Scoop Jackson and George Wallace would have run. I think a liberal would win the nomination. He, I doubt it is a she, would have successfully painted Reagan as an extremist and tied him to Nixon and wins the election.
 
Paul, oddly enough that might lead to a similar result to OTL. The liberal Dem (Carter analogue) still wins in '76, still suffers through what Carter did, and a conservative Republican wins in 1980. Maybe even Reagan, but probably not. Certainly not Ford, who wasn't going to run. Maybe George HW Bush?
 
Although this has never happened in OTL, if someone in the presidential line of succession below the Vice-President (i.e. the Speaker of the House and below) ends up assuming the Presidency, this triggers a special election to be held in November of that year. (Unless it happens in October, in which case the special election happens in November the following year.) Whoever wins that special election is elected to a full four-year term, resetting the Presidential election cycle.

In OTL, Vice-President Spiro Agnew resigned in October 1973 due to a bribery scandal, and Gerald Ford was appointed to replace him under the 25th Amendment in December of that year. President Richard Nixon then resigned in August 1974 due to the Watergate scandal, making Ford the President.

But, what if Nixon resigned before a replacement Vice-President was appointed? Maybe Agnew resigned later, or Nixon resigned earlier, or there was no 25th Amendment in TTL leaving the office of Vice-President vacant. But either way, Speaker of the House Carl Albert (D) would become President and a special election would be called for November 1974.

So, who would be the candidates? Who would win?

Would that candidate serve for the full 4 years, or will he just serve up until 1976. Because if that candidate serves for 4 years...
 
Hey, this is still doable if the special election law is put back into the Presidential Succession Act for 1947, for whatever reason.

Would that candidate serve for the full 4 years, or will he just serve up until 1976. Because if that candidate serves for 4 years...
Four years, yes.
 
The man in the best position to win such an election, leaving aside the plausibility of it occurring, may have been Hubert Humphrey. Let's face it, whoever the Democrats nominated would win. Whoever that nominee happened to be almost would not matter in terms of the outcome. Even George McGovern would've won under those circumstances, So the question becomes, who is the best equipped to win the Democratic nomination here? And if I remember correctly, Humphrey considered running in 1976 until his cancer ruled that out. Two years earlier he might have been in a better position to seek the nomination. Other than Humphrey, since Kennedy won't do it, there really is not another obvious choice for the Democrats.

But again whoever they pick, wins, period.


Another effect is that with 1974 suddenly a Presidential year, the Republicans will do even worse in their Congressional Races. Bob Dole, for example, is going to lose his Senate Seat.

So basically, epic Democratic landslide.
 
The party rallies around Hubert Humphrey, who's not yet concerned enough about his health to ignore the prospect of a landslide presidential victory. His running mate could even be George McGovern as a 'Revenge' ticket, but in 1974, McGovern's also still more poisonous than he was in OTL 1976 when they discussed it, so it's not a definitive. I would assume the Republicans nominated Reagan, since he's popular and Ford has no advantage.

Humphrey wins and uses the next few years to pass Universal Health Care, among other things, and bows out of the 1978 presidential race due to his failing health, endorsing his Vice President against the Republican nominee.

A TL based on this concept would be dead fascinating.
 
Four years, yes.

Then all the elections are on the even years not multiples of four (1974, 1978, 1982, etc...). That messes things up a lot.

1974 is going to be a Democratic year. If by 1978, the economy still struggles to recover (like OTL), then a Republican president will get elected into office. That Republican, instead of a Democrat, will have to deal with the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the backlash. He will also have three years, instead of one year OTL.
 
Wasn't there a poll at the time that said if they could do over the 1972 election 50%+ would have picked McGovern? Granted, that's against Nixon, but it may suggest McGovern would have been tolerated nationally. Inside the Democratic Party is another matter. Assuming Reagan is the nominee in 1974, I wonder if that obvious loss would prevent him from being able to seek the Presidency in a more favorable year.

If he wins in 1978, there is a solid chance he is not reelected in 1982. But if he loses 1978 he is a two time loser by the time 1982 rolls around and is unlikely to be nominated. However I look at this scenario, Reagan's is at a disadvantage.
 
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The party rallies around Hubert Humphrey, who's not yet concerned enough about his health to ignore the prospect of a landslide presidential victory. His running mate could even be George McGovern as a 'Revenge' ticket, but in 1974, McGovern's also still more poisonous than he was in OTL 1976 when they discussed it, so it's not a definitive. I would assume the Republicans nominated Reagan, since he's popular and Ford has no advantage.

Humphrey wins and uses the next few years to pass Universal Health Care, among other things, and bows out of the 1978 presidential race due to his failing health, endorsing his Vice President against the Republican nominee.
Thing is, Humphrey died in OTL in January 1978. Given the stresses of the presidency and all that, he may even die sooner in TTL. Which means that his Vice-President will succeed him in office.

Given that Humphrey already knew he had cancer in 1973, he'd probably want his Vice-President to be an actual successor rather than a ticket-balancer.
 
Wasn't there a poll at the time that said if they could do over the 1972 election 50%+ would have picked McGovern? Granted, that's against Nixon, but it may suggest McGovern would have been tolerated nationally. Inside the Democratic Party is another matter.
McGovern desperately wanted to run again in 1976 and the Democratic Party leaders refused because of how poor his previous showing was.

Thing is, Humphrey died in OTL in January 1978. Given the stresses of the presidency and all that, he may even die sooner in TTL. Which means that his Vice-President will succeed him in office.

Given that Humphrey already knew he had cancer in 1973, he'd probably want his Vice-President to be an actual successor rather than a ticket-balancer.
I did not suggest McGovern to balance the ticket. In 1976 OTL, he and Humphrey were in talks for a ticket together. And while McGovern had his issues, he wasn't un-electable in terms of candidacy so much as in terms of the 1972 campaign itself.
 
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