WI: Special Order 191 not found.

Please do not bring in Turtledove and his series in here.

What might possibly happen if the Union soldiers do not find a copy of the Confederates' Special Order 191?
 
Heinrich Turtletaub would create a hit book series about if the orders had been lost.

Well, the Special Orders themselves were a coup in discovering the battle plans of the Confederates but it is likely as possible OTL blunders would occur.
 
I'm of the opinion that 191 was a ruse, intended to get McClellan to get off his ass, attack, lose and let Lee rejuvenate without a nearby threat. Lee got exactly what he wanted, and then blew it.

So, it was specifically designed to be found and given legitimacy.

Still, giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, and assume it's real, what happens is exactly what Lee didn't want: McClellan sitting on his ass, threatening Lee. This may actually benefit Lee because it's possible Mc never makes a move instead of attacking, or if he does finally make a move, Lee could possibly fare better.
 
Lee is free to loot most of Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania of everything that isn't nailed down. Mac only moves enough to prevent Washington's fall. Sitting behind the DC forts, the AotP is too strong for Lee to attack, so he slowly withdraws to Virginia, his wagons bulging to the bursting point with swag. Without the Battle of Antietam, Lincoln lacks the political cover for a now non-issued Emancipation Proclamation. Mac refuses to pursue Lee's five million man:eek: army:rolleyes:. Mac is finally shown the door. Burnside fails to deliver. Hooker fails to deliver. Meade and Grant deliver. Lincoln issues the Emancipation Proclamation effective for October 1st, 1863.
 
I recall reading that McClellan didn't actually make use of the Order.

You could certainly make that argument considering that while he DID react, he did so in his typical slothful way. It was the fact that Mac moved at all that so shocked Lee. The advantage didn't last long anyway, since he quickly shared the news with his staff, including the ladies present in his HQ. If ANY of those women weren't Confederate spies, I would be somewhat surprised.:rolleyes:

They used to say that half the officers in the AotP were sleeping with lady Confederate spies, and half of those knew it and didn't care as long as they kept getting theirs.:mad:
 
Please do not bring in Turtledove and his series in here.

Not to be snitty, but it is the most famous Civil War Alternate History series and it revolves on that very WI . . .

I recall reading that McClellan didn't actually make use of the Order.

He did, he was just too damn cautious. He was somewhat concerned about a trap (see unprincipled peter's post) and may have overestimated Lee's Army. If, say, Grant was in charge of the army at that point (he wasn't God by any means, but, y'know, 'where Lee goes, you will go also' is a good philosophy) it might have worked out better.

You could certainly make that argument considering that while he DID react, he did so in his typical slothful way. It was the fact that Mac moved at all that so shocked Lee. The advantage didn't last long anyway, since he quickly shared the news with his staff, including the ladies present in his HQ. If ANY of those women weren't Confederate spies, I would be somewhat surprised.:rolleyes:

They used to say that half the officers in the AotP were sleeping with lady Confederate spies, and half of those knew it and didn't care as long as they kept getting theirs.:mad:

Were the (non debauched) brass aware of the fact that many ladies were acting as spies at this point?
 
Lee is free to loot most of Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania of everything that isn't nailed down. Mac only moves enough to prevent Washington's fall. Sitting behind the DC forts, the AotP is too strong for Lee to attack, so he slowly withdraws to Virginia, his wagons bulging to the bursting point with swag. Without the Battle of Antietam, Lincoln lacks the political cover for a now non-issued Emancipation Proclamation. Mac refuses to pursue Lee's five million man:eek: army:rolleyes:. Mac is finally shown the door. Burnside fails to deliver. Hooker fails to deliver. Meade and Grant deliver. Lincoln issues the Emancipation Proclamation effective for October 1st, 1863.
so in other words somehow we end up with qa Newt Gingrich ATL.
 
Well, I've got to think this leading to:

-McC doesn't move to face the Army of Northern Virginia
-Lee gets away with a raid without an Antietam variant.
-Lincoln sacks McC, but since McC really has no "cover" himself, he won't be the Democrat nominee in 1864...

The major question is whom replaces McC in an alt-1862 at the head of the Army of the Potomac?

Grant is just barely earning his stars in the West, so sooner or later he'll get this job.

John Pope ran the OTL army of Virginia for around three more months--he'd get smacked down by Robert E. Lee
Ambrose Burnside ran the Army of the Potomac into disaster at Fredicksburg--ATL smackdown forthcoming, I'm sure.
Joseph Hooker was another commander defeated by Robert E. Lee.
George Meade beat Lee at Gettysburg, although it was not as decisive a victory as Lincoln wished.

And some ATL choices:

Fitz John Porter was a capable commander but got smeared by John Pope. If he makes it to the top he might still get beaten--but he might also win.
William Franklin was a friend of Grants' who didn't get along with Burnside, was injured and played no major role afterward.
John Reynolds was well liked and died at Gettysburg right before the battle; suppose that Burnside's purge works out differently? Would he get the top spot?

As nice as it would be to consider an ATL where Lincoln picks a decent or great general in 1862, then the Union Army moves south, I think the Confederates are probably going to deeply humiliate at least two of the guys on the list. In the worst case, Grant takes over in 1863. But rerolling the dice means things may well go against the Confederates as a whole--and I think they were luckier than average.
 
You could certainly make that argument considering that while he DID react, he did so in his typical slothful way. It was the fact that Mac moved at all that so shocked Lee. The advantage didn't last long anyway, since he quickly shared the news with his staff, including the ladies present in his HQ. If ANY of those women weren't Confederate spies, I would be somewhat surprised.:rolleyes:

They used to say that half the officers in the AotP were sleeping with lady Confederate spies, and half of those knew it and didn't care as long as they kept getting theirs.:mad:
I thought Lee said he didn't find out about the lost order until after the war?
 
I think Hooker has a chance of doing better. I've read Sears book on Chancellorville and I think his share of the blame for the loss has been overrated.
 
Were the (non debauched) brass aware of the fact that many ladies were acting as spies at this point?

Oh yes, and many of them were caught. But this being the Victorian Era, it was unthinkable to do more than punish them with incarceration during the war. It got so bad that some of them were running spy ops out of their jail cells! It is often thought that Mrs. Surratt was hanged because the Union had finally become fed up with how many Confederate women had gotten away with capital crimes in the ACW, to the cost of thousands of Union battlefield deaths, with little to no real punishment.

so in other words somehow we end up with a Newt Gingrich ATL.

Not quite. That ATL wound up with the AotP all but destroyed but the AoNV completely bagged.

Well, I've got to think this leading to:

-McC doesn't move to face the Army of Northern Virginia
-Lee gets away with a raid without an Antietam variant.
-Lincoln sacks McC, but since McC really has no "cover" himself, he won't be the Democrat nominee in 1864...

The major question is whom replaces McC in an alt-1862 at the head of the Army of the Potomac?

Grant is just barely earning his stars in the West, so sooner or later he'll get this job.

John Pope ran the OTL army of Virginia for around three more months--he'd get smacked down by Robert E. Lee
Ambrose Burnside ran the Army of the Potomac into disaster at Fredicksburg--ATL smackdown forthcoming, I'm sure.
Joseph Hooker was another commander defeated by Robert E. Lee.
George Meade beat Lee at Gettysburg, although it was not as decisive a victory as Lincoln wished.

And some ATL choices:

Fitz John Porter was a capable commander but got smeared by John Pope. If he makes it to the top he might still get beaten--but he might also win.
William Franklin was a friend of Grants' who didn't get along with Burnside, was injured and played no major role afterward.
John Reynolds was well liked and died at Gettysburg right before the battle; suppose that Burnside's purge works out differently? Would he get the top spot?

As nice as it would be to consider an ATL where Lincoln picks a decent or great general in 1862, then the Union Army moves south, I think the Confederates are probably going to deeply humiliate at least two of the guys on the list. In the worst case, Grant takes over in 1863. But rerolling the dice means things may well go against the Confederates as a whole--and I think they were luckier than average(1).

There is also the question of other corps commanders in 1862/1863 not being up to scratch. By Gettysburg, only Sickles fully deserved that description.

1) A lot of that luck was derived from superior cavalry plus a vastly more effective spy service granting superior intelligence,
more experienced leadership at the higher command levels, more aggressiveness leading to more confidence in battle, and above all, operating on the interior lines. Which is why the AoNV got so badly spanked on the two occasions when the Union had the interior lines.

I thought Lee said he didn't find out about the lost order until after the war?

I have heard it different ways. But if he hadn't, then that wouldn't explain his acting so quickly himself. If he was actually unaware, then even with McClellan's slows, Lee is destroyed in detail.
 
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"Lee is free to loot most of Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania of everything that isn't nailed down. Mac only moves enough to prevent Washington's fall"

The only real question is whether Lee is comfortable enough accepting Mac as being that much of a slug. It's obvious in hindsight, but is it realistic to accept it at the time? Again, I believe the whole incident was a trap that was messed up. Hindsight says Lee is reasonable free to do as he pleases while plundering/rejuvenating his troops. Contemporary thinking says you cannot leave a foe on your flank.

Still, IF Lee gets to wander around at will, I don't think you can change major factors and still get back to the same conclusions in your ATL (emanc proc in reasonably same time frame). the end of the war may be the same (or it may not), but how you get there is going to be much different.


The reason Turtledove can be summarily dismissed is because he would be torn to shreds here and on most alt history sites. He's a popular author, but his ideas are extremely flawed. At best you can argue 'hey, it's possible'. That doesn't make him the god of the alt history world.
 
Lee runs around in Maryland and McClelland soon gets info that Lees force is divided anyone by loyalists and/or spies. He might actually do something better than attack Lee and that is to shadow Lee and always be south of Lee distrupting connections between Lee and the CSA
 
"Lee is free to loot most of Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania of everything that isn't nailed down. Mac only moves enough to prevent Washington's fall"

The only real question is whether Lee is comfortable enough accepting Mac as being that much of a slug. It's obvious in hindsight, but is it realistic to accept it at the time? Again, I believe the whole incident was a trap that was messed up. Hindsight says Lee is reasonable free to do as he pleases while plundering/rejuvenating his troops. Contemporary thinking says you cannot leave a foe on your flank.

I would only say that Lee was not only phenomenal at getting inside the heads of his enemies (when his best cavalry was around), but that he was never better at it than with McClellan. And as long as your opponent believes you are two to three times the size of the AotP:eek::rolleyes:, then you know he won't take any risks whatsoever.

Still, IF Lee gets to wander around at will, I don't think you can change major factors and still get back to the same conclusions in your ATL (emanc proc in reasonably same time frame). the end of the war may be the same (or it may not), but how you get there is going to be much different.

Actually, it was SecState William Seward who insisted to Lincoln that the EP not be issued until after a major strategic victory was scored by the Union, and at the time the political sense was that the Union was NOT winning the war. That the EP would be seen as the last shriek of a defeated foe pleading for a servile insurrection as the only means of Union victory. So the only way the North could win was through the actions of Southern slaves.:(

Even IOTL, Antietam was seen by Lincoln as a "moth-eaten victory", just barely sufficient to qualify as a means to issue the EP. Without Antietam, you'd be looking at either a major Western victory (which might not provide the gravitas needed politically) or else waiting for Gettysburg and Vicksburg, which would be far more effective to hit the South when they were down (converting a double whammy into a triple whammy!:p).


The reason Turtledove can be summarily dismissed is because he would be torn to shreds here and on most alt history sites. He's a popular author, but his ideas are extremely flawed. At best you can argue 'hey, it's possible'. That doesn't make him the god of the alt history world.

You can say the same regarding the Gingrich/Forstchen Gettyburg trilogy. On no less than three separate occassions, you see forced contrivances to throw the AotP into pointless meat grinders, and always through the same tired means: insane levels of vainglorious insubordination (1).

Meade: "He's done WHAT!?" (half the AotP is ruined)
Sickles: "He's done WHAT!?" (2) (the other half is ruined)
Grant: "He's done WHAT!?" (3) (every last remnant is totally destroyed, leaving an amalgamation of odds and sods under the banner of a sole surviving unit, Sykes' V Corps)

1) Of course, that could NEVER happen with the incomparable AoNV.:rolleyes: Except for the throwing away of one division, Pickett's (who else?:rolleyes:).

2) It's been a long time since I've read that trilogy. It may have been another officer talking ABOUT Sickles.

3) Yeah, that same wornout phrase is in all three books. You would have thought the editors would have nixed that.

Lee runs around in Maryland and McClelland soon gets info that Lees force is divided anyone by loyalists and/or spies. He might actually do something better than attack Lee and that is to shadow Lee and always be south of Lee distrupting connections between Lee and the CSA

Yeah, but what about the CSA's 200,000 man army:eek: that is still sitting in Northern Virginia, just waiting to catch MacClellan between two forces?:rolleyes: This is why I think that some future ACW "historian/conspiracy theorists" will make the case that Alan Pinkerton was either enjoying the favors of one of those Southern "ladies", or was an outright Confederate agent himself.:mad::rolleyes::p
 
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