WI: SPD win majority in 1912 German election?

I say 1912, but this can apply to any election under the Kaiserreich. The German Empire had universal suffrage on the federal level, but electoral boundaries were never changed to keep up with urbanisation and so rural areas had disproportionate influence. What if the SPD had won a majority in the 1912 election despite this? (in OTL it won a plurality of seats) Would we have seen a parliamentarising of the empire? Would WW1 have been averted?
 
I agree it is hardly a possibility, even by 1917, when the next elections were scheduled.

But if it happened, it would, ironically split between reformists and the more revolutionary, republican members. :eek:
 

Deleted member 1487

Impossible given the three tiered electoral system of the Prussian government. You'd need to change the constitution pre-1912.
 
It really depends how aggressively a socialist Reichstag pushed for radical economic/political changes. They would realize that the Imperial constitution greatly limited the power of the Reichstag. The SD might seek to moderate its policies and work to change things slowly around the edges (that means no outright opposition to German militarism and military/naval funding). If the SD seriously attempted to overthrow the power of the Prussian Junkers and the military in determining Germany domestic and foreign policy then you might see some sort of Junkers/military/imperial coup to protect these interests.
 
Impossible given the three tiered electoral system of the Prussian government. You'd need to change the constitution pre-1912.

I'm talking about the federal Reichstag, not the Prussian one. The three-tirered system did not apply there.
 
I don't think WW1 will necessarily be avoided. IIRC, the SDP wanted a war with Russia out of fear of Russia's reactionary nature.
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't think WW1 will necessarily be avoided. IIRC, the SDP wanted a war with Russia out of fear of Russia's reactionary nature.
Wanted war? No, they were willing to tolerate a defensive war.
 
Ah, but this is FPTP, of course.

They would need to have not just FPTP but the districts actually gerrymandered in their favor to have any chance of winning a majority. Otherwise they would undoubtedly get a lot of "wasted votes"--supermajorities in urban working-class constituencies.

Anyway, Germany did not have FPTP but a second ballot system, in which there was a second election in all constituencies where nobody got an absolute majority in the first round. Why in the world would the non-socialist parties who had a majority in the Reichstag give this system up for "pure" FPTP to make things easier for the SPD? (One might also ask why they would give up gerrymandered constituencies, but a move toward FPTP, unlike one for electoral districts of more equal population, couldn't be justified even by abstract fairness!)
 
To be exact: the Constituencies had been somewhat fair in 1871, but had never been adjusted to the massive demographic changes which had occured over 40 years, i.e. the explosive growth of the cities.

397 seats and 65 Million inhabitants should make an average of ca. 164,000.

But, for example, in my home Regierungsbezirk of Münster, only 1 of 4 constitutencies remains below that mark, Warendorf/Beckum/Lüdingshausen with 154,000 in 1910.
Even the more rural constituencies are at 181,000 and 191,000. But one of the grosser examples is Recklinghausen/Borken with almost 400,000 inhabitants.

Berlin had 2 Million inhabitants (not yet in the 1920 borders) and only 6 representatives.
 

Redbeard

Banned
As I have understood it, the SDs choosed to support the war in 1914 because they expected to be in power soon and didn't want any accusations of letting Down the Fatherland.

If being in power from 1912 I doubt they would have time to change things so much that they avoid the OTL 1914 situation - i.e.: Mobilise or be run over!

But perhaps it would be possible to reach a peace agreement before 1918.

Anyway, IMHO a Germany not in WWI or winning WWI would soon turn SD.

After all that was what happened in the culturally almost identical Scandinavian countries but from a basis less industrialised and not exactly perfect democracies. The Scandinavian SD parties were almost copy-paste of the German but their nations were not involved in WWI.
 

Thande

Donor
If you want some context, Ares96 mapped the German election of 1912 here and if you scroll up you can see the ones for previous years.

Bear in mind the German electoral system at the time was two-round, like modern France, so there was one round in each constituency and then if no-one got 50%+1 votes the top two candidates progressed to a runoff.
 
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