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I know that the PoD belongs to the before 1900 forum, but since the discussion will take part of the post 1900 era I believe it is better to let it here

Well, what if for some reason the Phillipines and Guam was kept under Spanish control? Maybe they give up Cuba so the americans don't invade the spanish pacific, or there is no war in Cuba at all, the PoD don't matter so much

How would this change the japanese situation in the pacific?
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