WI Spanish philippines during WWII?

And it would backfire very badly. Sure, Spain could give it, but then everyone rises up and Spain get's its's royal ass kick in 100 ways before the end of the week. The Filipinos would use the Spanish giving in to give them the big boot and kick them out.

Going with Axis Spain, and the US/UK getting into a war with Japan and Japan are using the Philippines, what would the US and UK do with it?

Why would the Filipinos give the Spanish give a big boot when the Spanish just gave what they want? Not giving them but promising reforms is what happened in OTL or what the Spanish did in OTL.

Spain was never Axis OTL and can go on being not Axis in ATL. Nor would an ATL like this result into the same OTL in the 1940s.
 
Why would the Filipinos give the Spanish give a big boot when the Spanish just gave what they want? Not giving them but promising reforms is what happened in OTL or what the Spanish did in OTL.

Spain was never Axis OTL and can go on being not Axis in ATL. Nor would an ATL like this result into the same OTL in the 1940s.

Due to Spain would back-stab them all, killing rebel leader and undone all they promising reforms. And if the Filipinos give the Spanish give a big boot either way?

But still, let's say with the Philippines, Franco thinks joining up with the Axis is best, and Japan use the Philippines, and the US and UK have a war with Japan, what would they do with it?

Or with a Civil War, what would a newly free Philippines look like?
 
The Japanese would have little interest in the Philippines. Sure, they have some resources, but none that the Japanese particularly need (they have all the timber/grain/etc. they want in occupied China. The OTL Philippines Campaign lasted for months and then the islands saw significant guerrilla resistance until the Americans recaptured them. That's far too much effort to seize some islands that don't provide the resources Japan really needs (oil). OTL they invaded to prevent the US from having a major base right across their supply lines to the Dutch East Indies and British territories (which is what they really cared about). Here, they'll be happy to let the Philippines remain as whatever they are (either independent or Spanish).

As for how the US would respond to all this? American interests in Asia were always far more concerned with China; indeed, the main reason for the original American annexation of the Philippines was to secure a local fleet base for the forces they already had deployed to protect their interests in Asia. It's worth remembering that the Battle of Manila Bay wasn't the result of some American task force steaming from California on an expedition. The battle was fought by American naval forces already in China; in other words, the US already had a stronger fleet in East Asia than Spain did, despite not owning any land (the Asiatic Squadron being based at various Chinese ports prior to capturing Manila). Even without the Philippines this trade would continue, and the US would continue to oppose Japanese aggression against China, leading to sanctions (again, mainly driven by American pressure; neither the British nor the Dutch particularly cared, but went along to make the US happy) and probably eventually war.

As for whether the Spanish could hold the Philippines? I'm not qualified to judge, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a Cuba-like situation: frequent rebellions that get defeated by a combination of military action and selective buying off of elites, only to flare up again a decade later. The then-ongoing Philippine rebellion wasn't invincible, after all; the US defeated it after the war, and the Spanish had mostly pacified it before the Spanish-American War broke their control over the area (remember that Aguinaldo was in exile in Hong Kong until Dewey brought him back after Manila Bay). It's not like colonial rebellions in their holdings were a new thing for the Spanish, after all.
 
I don't think Japan would invade, tbh. Why would it. Afaik, the mains reasons Japan invaded were to crush US opposition in the area, as well as getting resources and access to the south & south west. But Franco's Spain was an (informal) german ally, which would put it outside the list of Japan's enemies. If Japan would "ask" Franco fro access and economic support in the area, I'm sure Franco would say yes. Specially if the IJN sent 4-5 ships to Manilla on a "goodwill" visit...
 
As for whether the Spanish could hold the Philippines? I'm not qualified to judge, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a Cuba-like situation: frequent rebellions that get defeated by a combination of military action and selective buying off of elites, only to flare up again a decade later. The then-ongoing Philippine rebellion wasn't invincible, after all; the US defeated it after the war, and the Spanish had mostly pacified it before the Spanish-American War broke their control over the area (remember that Aguinaldo was in exile in Hong Kong until Dewey brought him back after Manila Bay). It's not like colonial rebellions in their holdings were a new thing for the Spanish, after all.

Won't Spain get sick and tired of always putting down rebellions every decade, or so?

And still: War with Japan and America. America takes over the Philippines because Spain is a really allied with Germany and Japan, or Japan had taken them over some time before hand. What does the US do with it?

What would a Spanish Philippines look like today?
 
Due to Spain would back-stab them all, killing rebel leader and undone all they promising reforms. And if the Filipinos give the Spanish give a big boot either way?

Like I said why would this happen? This ATL we are talking. What you just stated is OTL. I think your thinking is stuck with an OTL Scenario. Because again what you stated happened in OTL.

There is no point discussing an ATL wherein Spain holds the Philippines if everything happened OTL right?
 
Won't Spain get sick and tired of always putting down rebellions every decade, or so?

And still: War with Japan and America. America takes over the Philippines because Spain is a really allied with Germany and Japan, or Japan had taken them over some time before hand. What does the US do with it?

What would a Spanish Philippines look like today?
Hard to say if the Spanish would hold on or not. They tried their best OTL both in the Philippines and Cuba; national prestige tends to make governments irrational.

As for if America captures it either from Axis Spain or Japan? I'd expect they'd want some bases in the area (as OTL) and establish a friendly government, much like in Korea OTL; post-WWII US was much less interested in direct territorial expansion (only taking over a few small, lightly populated islands as protectorates) than it had been during the Spanish-American War, preferring soft power, allies and client states to the expense of directly governing a territory. Even if it did annex the Philippines, they'd probably be given pretty major self-governance and put on a road to independence ASAP, as the US would not want to be responsible for governing them. It's also worth remembering that the OTL annexation of the Philippines was controversial even at the time, and OTL by the '30s the US was actively organizing a transition to independence, motivated by a combination of anti-imperialists (who opposed the US practicing the imperialism they condemned elsewhere) and racists (who were afraid that keeping the Philippines would mean non-white Filipinos would be able to freely enter the US). Likely you see similar dynamics at play post-war; the US has no need to annex territory to demonstrate its power, as victory in WWII has done that amply.
 
Had this happened...Adm Spee would be alive? Or at least would die differently than otl?
I think it would be similar to OTL.

Tirpitz wanted more armoured cruisers and light cruisers for the overseas stations than he actually got in the 1898 and 1900 Navy Laws. If Germany did buy the Philippines it's likely that he would have got more of what he wanted. However, the German Asiatic Squadron would still be too small to defend the Philippines against the British Eastern Fleet and the Imperial Japanese Navy. Therefore he probably does what he did IOTL and his squadron is destroyed by British battlecruisers somewhere between the Falkland Islands and the GIUK Gap.
 
If the Philippines still had some connection with Spain in 1931 ranging from a Spanish colony to an independent country with the same head of state, would Alphonso XIII have flown there? And if he did...
  1. Would he have been warmly received by his Philippino subjects? Or...
  2. Would they have declared a republic? And...
  3. If they were still a dependency of Spain made a unilateral declaration of independence while they were at it?
 
I think it would be similar to OTL.

Tirpitz wanted more armoured cruisers and light cruisers for the overseas stations than he actually got in the 1898 and 1900 Navy Laws. If Germany did buy the Philippines it's likely that he would have got more of what he wanted. However, the German Asiatic Squadron would still be too small to defend the Philippines against the British Eastern Fleet and the Imperial Japanese Navy. Therefore he probably does what he did IOTL and his squadron is destroyed by British battlecruisers somewhere between the Falkland Islands and the GIUK Gap.

Actually, there was a split in the German Navy between Tirpitz's Mahanian faction wanting more battleships and those who followed the French Jeun-ecole (young school) theory. People like Diederichs and Knorr argued for smaller ships such as cruisers and torpedo boats, along with coastal defenses, being the future of naval warfare. Had Germany acquired the Phillipines Tirpitz's naval arms race with Britain might have been avoided, or at least slowed down by the costs of maintaining the Phillipines as an Imperial possession. The Kaiser was very ephemeral and just plain indecisive as to which way to go on naval construction in 1898. It was only in the years following, as Tirpitz's political control of the Navy grew, that other voices were silenced through retirement or posting decisions. That's why this period fascinates me. Germany could have taken a different imperial path. If the Kaiser were handed the Phillipines, or at least a major base there, his pride would have pushed him to hang on to and expand on it. That means allocating military resources away from other expensive things like battleships.

And another thought: if Franco is fighting the Civil War in 1936-39, whose to say the Spanish Republic doesn't declare itself in exile in the Phillipines in 1939. Japan doesn't have much reason to take a Republican Spain either. Its just not a worthwhile target. French Indochina gave Japan resources and a base close to Malaya and Java.
 
Actually, there was a split in the German Navy between Tirpitz's Mahanian faction wanting more battleships and those who followed the French Jeun-ecole (young school) theory. People like Diederichs and Knorr argued for smaller ships such as cruisers and torpedo boats, along with coastal defenses, being the future of naval warfare. Had Germany acquired the Phillipines Tirpitz's naval arms race with Britain might have been avoided, or at least slowed down by the costs of maintaining the Phillipines as an Imperial possession. The Kaiser was very ephemeral and just plain indecisive as to which way to go on naval construction in 1898. It was only in the years following, as Tirpitz's political control of the Navy grew, that other voices were silenced through retirement or posting decisions. That's why this period fascinates me. Germany could have taken a different imperial path. If the Kaiser were handed the Phillipines, or at least a major base there, his pride would have pushed him to hang on to and expand on it. That means allocating military resources away from other expensive things like battleships.
IIRC from Massey it was Tirpitz that wanted priority to the battlefleet over cruisers. When asked by the Kaiser why Nelson was always crying out for more cruisers, Tirpitz replied, "He already had a battlefleet!"

For the 1900 Navy Law what was requested were 20 armoured cruisers (8 HSF, 8 overseas and 4 reserve), but only 14 were approved (8 HSF, 3 overseas and 3 reserve). He finally got 20 armoured cruisers in the 1906 amendment to the Law. I think the delay cost the Kaisermarine 6 armoured cruisers.

The proposed 1900 Law also included 45 light cruisers (24 HSF, 10 overseas and 6 reserve) and 38 were approved (24 HSF, 10 overseas and 4 reserve). This was increased to 40 (30 HSF, 10 overseas and none in reserve) under the 1912 amendment of the law.

I think Germany in the 1900s could afford 13 extra cruisers without building fewer battleships. What I'm not sure about is whether Germany had the money to buy the Philippines, main an army big enough to defend the Philippines from the Philippinos and build the ships required under the OTL Naval Laws, let alone building 6 extra armoured cruisers and 7 extra light cruisers on top of all that.
 
And another thought: if Franco is fighting the Civil War in 1936-39, who's to say the Spanish Republic doesn't declare itself in exile in the Philippines in 1939. Japan doesn't have much reason to take a Republican Spain either. Its just not a worthwhile target. French Indochina gave Japan resources and a base close to Malaya and Java.
I think it's a worthwhile target, but the Philippines might be of more use in a long war with the USA as a buffer state.

Threads on Japan doing better in World War II are always ruined by some smart arse posting, "ATOM BOMBS STILL DETONATE ABOVE JAPANESE CITIES IN 1945!" However, if your suggestion happened the Americans won't be able to do that until the B-36 is ready because they won't be able to base B-29s in the Marinas Islands because ITTL they would be Philippine territory. That also butterflies away the conventional bombing campaign from those islands against the Japanese homeland. It also saves the Japanese the effort of having to provide garrisons for the Pacific Islands and maintaining them. The only disadvantage I can think if is that they don't have Truk as a forward base.

OTOH the Americans would be spared the job of invading the Philippines and could go straight for Formosa and/or Okinawa.
 
I think it's a worthwhile target, but the Philippines might be of more use in a long war with the USA as a buffer state.

Threads on Japan doing better in World War II are always ruined by some smart arse posting, "ATOM BOMBS STILL DETONATE ABOVE JAPANESE CITIES IN 1945!" However, if your suggestion happened the Americans won't be able to do that until the B-36 is ready because they won't be able to base B-29s in the Marinas Islands because ITTL they would be Philippine territory.

That... might not be a problem. Remember neutral Portugal ended up granting basing rights to the Allies in the Açores. The allies might seek the same rights from Spain for the Marianas. If they do this around late 1944, Spain will not be in a position to deny them the access... specially if it's made clear it's that or loosing them.

But the point "It also saves the Japanese the effort of having to provide garrisons for the Pacific Islands and maintaining them" is a very good one. It would save Japan a lot of men, supplies and ships.
 
Slightly off-topic but, if the Kaiser had been successful in purchasing the Philippines off of the Spanish, would he have changed the name? "The Wilhelmines" doesn't actually sound half bad.
 
Slightly off-topic but, if the Kaiser had been successful in purchasing the Philippines off of the Spanish, would he have changed the name? "The Wilhelmines" doesn't actually sound half bad.
LOL...that's kind of awesome in a twisted imperialist way...perfect for Kaiser Bill...it does have a certain ring to it:)
 
That... might not be a problem. Remember neutral Portugal ended up granting basing rights to the Allies in the Açores. The allies might seek the same rights from Spain for the Marianas. If they do this around late 1944, Spain will not be in a position to deny them the access... specially if it's made clear it's that or loosing them.
Bullying Spain into doing that or persuading the Philippinos to declare independence from Spain is something I considered, but didn't put in the post. However, if they do that they will also want bases in some of the other Pacific Islands like Iwo Jima and Guam, plus the Philippines proper to cut the supply line between Japan and the East Indies and as a base for the invasion of Japan.

An American occupation of the Marinas Islands and Iwo Jima probably triggers a Japanese attempt to occupy the Philippines proper (subject to them having the shipping, troops and aircraft to do so) which means the Americans have to reinforce the Spanish garrison of the Philippines.

I'm not saying it couldn't be done, but Spain was a bigger country than Portugal making it harder to bully. It also helped a lot that the British Government was able to use its treaty with Portugal. AFIAK none of the WAllies had a similar treaty with Spain.
 
But the point "It also saves the Japanese the effort of having to provide garrisons for the Pacific Islands and maintaining them" is a very good one. It would save Japan a lot of men, supplies and ships.
It also saves the Japanese the effort of invading the Philippines and Guam. If they don't have the Pacific Islands it's going to be impossible for them to take and occupy, Wake Island, Ocean Island and the Gilbert Islands, which ITTL the Japanese probably won't want to do in the first place.

In the recent Japan Invades Ceylon thread it was made clear that the Japanese 1941-42 offensive had to be done by requisitioning half that nations merchant marine and the whole thing was carried out with a minimum of troops, on a very tight schedule, with no margin for error. Therefore with a POD of December 1941 the Japanese could not have invaded Ceylon because they didn't have the shipping and the Army didn't have the soldiers.

The resources used for the invasion of the Philippines can instead be used to accelerate the invasion of the East Indies and Burma. If they do that faster than OTL that does give them the opportunity to go for Ceylon while the British are even less well prepared than they were for the OTL Indian Ocean Raid and even Australia before American reinforcements arrived.

However, if the Spanish were in Manila between the World Wars instead of the Americans would the British and Dutch governments take the threat of Japan to the East Indies more or less seriously? My guess is that they would take it more seriously and they would spend more money on their defences in the Far East.
 
I'm not saying it couldn't be done, but Spain was a bigger country than Portugal making it harder to bully. It also helped a lot that the British Government was able to use its treaty with Portugal. AFIAK none of the WAllies had a similar treaty with Spain.

Not that hard. By 1944 Spain's political situation, as a "friend" of Hitler, was pretty much out the window. As for military power, it was non-existing; economically and militarily, the country was still on it's knees, picking up the pieces of the civil war. Once the allies sweep into France, Spain will be well and truly cut off and isolated. A "nice conversation" between the US embassador in Madrid and Franco, coupled with hints of a economicall blockade, would do the trick, imho.


Edit: or the allies could make veiled threats of "helping the democrats that lost the civil war return to destroy fascism in Spain." I bet Stalin would love that...
 
Top