WI Spanish philippines during WWII?

SEA was invaded by the Japanese because it had resources such as oil, tin, rice, and more that Japan needed to run its economy as well as continue the war in China. In 1941 the PI really have none of these critical items. The PI were taken because they represented a threat to Japanese supply lines when the USA had major bases there. No bases, no threat, no reason to invade.
The Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1939 usually gave a table stating listing the production of each country in 1937. Unfortunately it did not for the Philippines, but it did say this...
Natural Resources

Forest and agricultural products, minerals (especially gold, and to a lesser extent iron and chrome), are among the principal natural resources. A new record was made in June 1938 in the production of gold, which was valued at 5,592,143 pesos (production for the first time exceeded 5,000,000 pesos in March 1938). Production for the first six months of 1938 was valued at 31,189,216 pesos, as against 24,626,107 pesos in the same period of 1937.
The same source said one peso was worth 50 cents U.S.

It might not have felt like it to the Philippino in the street, but the country seems to have been rather healthy economically. They had budget surpluses in 1938 and 1939. They had a cash surplus of 90 million pesos on 1st January 1938. In 1937 its exports were valued at 304,634,562 pesos and imports were 218,051,490 pesos.

The research I have been doing upon the Japanese economy indicates that the Philippines were an important source of high quality iron ore.
 
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A Spanish Philippines in late 1941, means that the United States stays neutral longer, as the Empire of Japan wouldn't see the U.S. as a significant threat. The United States would not enter World War 2, until it had a significant reason to enter hostilities (focusing on Europe).
Additionally Japan, as mentioned before would never have the German East Indies, as they would have remained Spanish. Japan would be less of a naval power, and would have focused expansion into China without having a need to control vast areas of ocean in their mandate. If the British and the Dutch stopped trading with Japan, due to its actions in the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Empire of Japan, now not as significant a naval power, may have a harder time amassing the capabilities to conduct amphibious operations on Malay Peninsula, Singapore, and the Dutch East Indies. It would also create an interesting event where with Empire of Japan declaring war on the British, and the Dutch, the American area of the Shanghai International Settlement, maybe the only safe area for those Europeans. While there maybe diplomatic pressure for the United States to end their perpetual lease, how long until the Americans acquiesce?
A Franco Philippines, assuming Spain still controlled the Philippines in 1941, would have worked the past couple years since gaining power, to squash any guerrilla/independence movements that existed. Additionally, it would likely be a friendly trading partner with the Empire of Japan.
Without U.S. involvement, in the Pacific, the Pacific War may last well into 1947, with the USSR becoming a significant factor.
Spain was never very good with administering its foreign holdings, so a status like New Caledonia within a Spanish framework would be unlikely. Therefore as others said, if the Second Spanish Republic were to be successful in the Spanish Civil War, than an independent Philippines is a distinct possibility; that said the question of this thread was for a Spanish Philippines during World War 2, meaning that a Franco victory in the Spanish Civil War would be a necessity.
 
A Spanish Philippines in late 1941, means that the United States stays neutral longer, as the Empire of Japan wouldn't see the U.S. as a significant threat. The United States would not enter World War 2, until it had a significant reason to enter hostilities (focusing on Europe).
Additionally Japan, as mentioned before would never have the German East Indies, as they would have remained Spanish. Japan would be less of a naval power, and would have focused expansion into China without having a need to control vast areas of ocean in their mandate. If the British and the Dutch stopped trading with Japan, due to its actions in the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Empire of Japan, now not as significant a naval power, may have a harder time amassing the capabilities to conduct amphibious operations on Malay Peninsula, Singapore, and the Dutch East Indies. It would also create an interesting event where with Empire of Japan declaring war on the British, and the Dutch, the American area of the Shanghai International Settlement, maybe the only safe area for those Europeans. While there maybe diplomatic pressure for the United States to end their perpetual lease, how long until the Americans acquiesce?
A Franco Philippines, assuming Spain still controlled the Philippines in 1941, would have worked the past couple years since gaining power, to squash any guerrilla/independence movements that existed. Additionally, it would likely be a friendly trading partner with the Empire of Japan.
Without U.S. involvement, in the Pacific, the Pacific War may last well into 1947, with the USSR becoming a significant factor.
Spain was never very good with administering its foreign holdings, so a status like New Caledonia within a Spanish framework would be unlikely. Therefore as others said, if the Second Spanish Republic were to be successful in the Spanish Civil War, than an independent Philippines is a distinct possibility; that said the question of this thread was for a Spanish Philippines during World War 2, meaning that a Franco victory in the Spanish Civil War would be a necessity.

What if there is no Franco? What if Afonso XIII restoration does work, and he grant Phillipines a "dominion" status in the mid-late 30s by putting a member of the house of bourbon as the local King?
 
What if there is no Franco? What if Afonso XIII restoration does work, and he grant Phillipines a "dominion" status in the mid-late 30s by putting a member of the house of bourbon as the local King?

It would have had to give us dominion earlier than that, considering the whole country was up in arms by the 1890s.
 
If by 1941 the PI are independent (either from internal revolution or ending of some protectorate) unless they are very closely tied to a military alliance with one of the major powers Japan will be at war with, which is unlikely, then the independent PI represents no military threat. Absent some alliance and major power military basing in the PI the PI has no reason to say boo to the Japanese. Staying a neutral, even "friendly" like allowing flights over their territory, passage through coastal waters, selling things like food and so forth, the PI avoids being invaded.

This sounds very much just like what Thailand did OTL.
 
I think the summarized answer without dabbling to how Spain kept Philippines is how the axis treated nationalist Spain otl would be the closest bet. Fillers for alliance to take Dutch indies and British Borneo much like the offer to take Gibraltar.

AFAIK the German Ambassador was standing outside the Cortez with an open chequebook in one hand and a pen in the other. The Kaiser was furious when the Americans beat him to it. I started a thread about a German Philippines some time ago.

Had this happened...Adm Spee would be alive? Or at least would die differently than otl?
 
A Spanish Philippines in late 1941, means that the United States stays neutral longer, as the Empire of Japan wouldn't see the U.S. as a significant threat. The United States would not enter World War 2, until it had a significant reason to enter hostilities (focusing on Europe).

Additionally Japan, as mentioned before would never have the German East Indies, as they would have remained Spanish. Japan would be less of a naval power, and would have focused expansion into China without having a need to control vast areas of ocean in their mandate. If the British and the Dutch stopped trading with Japan, due to its actions in the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Empire of Japan, now not as significant a naval power, may have a harder time amassing the capabilities to conduct amphibious operations on Malay Peninsula, Singapore, and the Dutch East Indies. It would also create an interesting event where with Empire of Japan declaring war on the British, and the Dutch, the American area of the Shanghai International Settlement, maybe the only safe area for those Europeans. While there maybe diplomatic pressure for the United States to end their perpetual lease, how long until the Americans acquiesce?

A Franco Philippines, assuming Spain still controlled the Philippines in 1941, would have worked the past couple years since gaining power, to squash any guerrilla/independence movements that existed. Additionally, it would likely be a friendly trading partner with the Empire of Japan.

Without U.S. involvement, in the Pacific, the Pacific War may last well into 1947, with the USSR becoming a significant factor.
Spain was never very good with administering its foreign holdings, so a status like New Caledonia within a Spanish framework would be unlikely. Therefore as others said, if the Second Spanish Republic were to be successful in the Spanish Civil War, than an independent Philippines is a distinct possibility; that said the question of this thread was for a Spanish Philippines during World War 2, meaning that a Franco victory in the Spanish Civil War would be a necessity.

But how? Spain was a very big mess. The Philippines was a mess for them for years, and would only cause more problems for Spain, it would take years to get rid of the guerrilla/independence movements, that was everywhere.

Japan was....not the most sane and smartest when it came to 1941. They attack the USA and thought it would roll over! No, Japan would mess up and attack the US. America will take the Philippines either way, be it under Japanese rule, or Franco.

Or it could be taken by the British if it does business with the Empire of Japan.

Or during the Civil War, it could revolt and Franco could not do a thing about it. Forget about it.
 
But how? Spain was a very big mess. The Philippines was a mess for them for years, and would only cause more problems for Spain, it would take years to get rid of the guerrilla/independence movements, that was everywhere.

Japan was....not the most sane and smartest when it came to 1941. They attack the USA and thought it would roll over! No, Japan would mess up and attack the US. America will take the Philippines either way, be it under Japanese rule, or Franco.

Or it could be taken by the British if it does business with the Empire of Japan.

Or during the Civil War, it could revolt and Franco could not do a thing about it. Forget about it.

This would be the case the later the pod or otl. A pod that grants Filipinos what their asking from Spain makes Philippines loyal.

Representation in Cortez, equal rights, securalize the church in Philippines. I think what you are talking about is when Spain throws all these requests out of the window and executes Jose Rizal like otl.
 
This would be the case the later the pod or otl. A pod that grants Filipinos what their asking from Spain makes Philippines loyal.

Representation in Cortez, equal rights, securalize the church in Philippines. I think what you are talking about is when Spain throws all these requests out of the window and executes Jose Rizal like otl.

And that how it would happen, no matter what. Spain was petty bad at administering it's colonies. One of many reasons why Spain was so screw since the Napoleonic Wars for much of it's history. Spain would blow it's feet off before it thinks about giving the Filipinos any of that and still won't.

You know what would be better? British Philippines. If the English was able to smash the Spanish colonial government and they Filipino allies, they could have kept.
 
I'll do some handwavium for my comment and assume Spain has kept the Philippines to the 1930s and 40s. (Actually plausible given that from the 1880s to the 1940s no colony of any nation successfully revolted without significant outside help, the time of Latin American nations revolting on their own was over, and except for Ethiopia native states had been conquered world wide).

So, Hitler is friendly with Spain and Franco. Also desires sime friendly contact with Japan, even calls them the Aryans of East Asia. This is all in line with OTL. Lets look at OTL, Italy had territorial concessions in Tianjin, the Japanese did not take them over except by force when Italy fell to the Allies. Italy rightfully held them until 1947 when by treaty they were given to the RoC. Look at French IndoChina, did Vichy France being an allied stop the Japanese? No, there was a combination of agreements and backstabs allowing the Japanese to come in and set up bases and then seize other control. Did Portugal being a fascist nation and neutral in WWII in Europe keep the Japanese from seizing Macau and Timor-leste? No. So based on OTL, unless Hitler intervenes diplomatically or Spain becomes a full Axis member with a treaty of alliance with Japan then the Philippines goes the way of French IndoChina, first bases and concessions are agreed on, then once there suddenly more is seized than agreed.

If having the Philippines creates a butterfly that gives Spain more reason to join the Axis then this becomes very interesting. Or conversely, Spain having thr Philippines creates a situation where Franco convinces Hitler not to make any agreements with Japan. In OTL the Pacific and European theaters are considered one war due to a flimsy pact; without it, we have two separate wars that are coincidentally happening. An ATL Pearl Harbor attack might not cause the USA and Germany to go to war, and German sub attacks could cause the US to intervene in Europe without drawing it into the Pacific
 
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I'll do some handwavium for my comment and assume Spain has kept the Philippines to the 1930s and 40s. (Actually plausible given that from the 1880s to the 1940s no colony of any nation successfully revolted without significant outside help, the time of Latin American nations revolting on their own was over, and except for Ethiopia native states had been conquered world wide).

So, Hitler is friendly with Spain and Franco. Also desires sime friendly contact with Japan, even calls them the Aryans of East Asia. This is all in line with OTL. Lets

The Philippine Revolution had no help, and they still kick the Spanish asses.

Then won't the British and the US (Remember: Imperial Japan. Not sane when it comes to war.) take over the Philippines if Franco had let Japan have base rights and trade?
 
The Philippine Revolution had no help, and they still kick the Spanish asses.

Then won't the British and the US (Remember: Imperial Japan. Not sane when it comes to war.) take over the Philippines if Franco had let Japan have base rights and trade?
I hit post by accident. See the edited version ofnmy post
 
The Philippine Revolution had no help, and they still kick the Spanish asses.

Then won't the British and the US (Remember: Imperial Japan. Not sane when it comes to war.) take over the Philippines if Franco had let Japan have base rights and trade?
Kicked Spanish asses only in the same manner that the Boers kicked British asses. Works for a limited time but in the end you're toast given the time period we are talking about.
 
And Spain had just giving up on the Philippines and let them go?
In OTL Spain gave them to the USA. Otherwise would have sold them to Germany. There was never serious consideration to "letting them go" nor would the international community recognize that. Germany was coming in if the US hadnt taken it in 1898.
 
And that how it would happen, no matter what. Spain was petty bad at administering it's colonies. One of many reasons why Spain was so screw since the Napoleonic Wars for much of it's history. Spain would blow it's feet off before it thinks about giving the Filipinos any of that and still won't.

You know what would be better? British Philippines. If the English was able to smash the Spanish colonial government and they Filipino allies, they could have kept.

That would have been nice if the British actually won beyond Manila. But what prevented them were the Filipinos loyal to the Spanish.

Sure the Spanish may not given in otl. That is why it is OTL. They may give in ATL however improbable but still possible. 3 out of 4 times the Spanish may not agree, but there is a chance they will still agree in 1880s for changes due to the uniqueness of the Philippines or because the Lunas were pretty darn close to Queen Maria Christina or whatever reason you can think of. The point being it still possible regardless of how small the percentage may be.
 
That would have been nice if the British actually won beyond Manila. But what prevented them were the Filipinos loyal to the Spanish.

Sure the Spanish may not given in otl. That is why it is OTL. They may give in ATL however improbable but still possible. 3 out of 4 times the Spanish may not agree, but there is a chance they will still agree in 1880s for changes due to the uniqueness of the Philippines or because the Lunas were pretty darn close to Queen Maria Christina or whatever reason you can think of. The point being it still possible regardless of how small the percentage may be.

And it would backfire very badly. Sure, Spain could give it, but then everyone rises up and Spain get's its's royal ass kick in 100 ways before the end of the week. The Filipinos would use the Spanish giving in to give them the big boot and kick them out.

Going with Axis Spain, and the US/UK getting into a war with Japan and Japan are using the Philippines, what would the US and UK do with it?
 
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