WI Spanish philippines during WWII?

I know that the PoD belongs to the before 1900 forum, but since the discussion will take part of the post 1900 era I believe it is better to let it here

Well, what if for some reason the Phillipines and Guam was kept under Spanish control? Maybe they give up Cuba so the americans don't invade the spanish pacific, or there is no war in Cuba at all, the PoD don't matter so much

How would this change the japanese situation in the pacific?
 
If anything it makes it even more obvious a target. Its not like Spain can do anything other than go "Heeeeeeeeey....." Raise a hand ineffectually and then look sad.
 
If anything it makes it even more obvious a target. Its not like Spain can do anything other than go "Heeeeeeeeey....." Raise a hand ineffectually and then look sad.

But if Japan does the south east campaign as OTL this will still lead Japan to enter in war with the UK and the US, thus allowing Spain to recover the Philippines, no?
 
They'd grab the Phillipines, its a blantantly obvious and VERY soft target unless Spain is somehow still a world player at this point. No fear of hitting the US because you don't have the US forces on the Phillipines sitting astride your lines of communications. The IJA would see a weak target and go "OURS NOW!"

Its basically going to be this.


But with a lot more rape and slaughter thrown in because the IJA was fucking evil.
 
A neutral America is actually a bit more plausible now because one of Japan's fears, a fortified American Philippines is no longer a concern. It might still happen but it might not.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
A neutral America is actually a bit more plausible now because one of Japan's fears, a fortified American Philippines is no longer a concern. It might still happen but it might not.

For that matter, without the Philippines, it's possible or even probable that the United States's interests in the Western Pacific are relatively limited and commercial -- if no Philippines and instead the US only holds, perhaps, Hawaii and Midway at most -- then the US isn't necessarily developing the power projection necessary to bring the war to the Japanese.
 
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For that matter, without the Philippines, it's possible or even probable that the United States's interests in the Western Pacific are relatively limited and commercial -- if no Philippines and instead the US only holds, perhaps Hawaii and Midway at most -- then the US isn't necessarily developing the power projection necessary to bring the war to the Japanese.

And if Japan still feels threatened then simply buying military basing rights from Fascist Spain is probably an option. Fascist Spanish Philippines removes most of the reason to invade the Philippines in the first place.
 
No way Spain could keep the Phillipines. Cuba they could keep, but the Phillipines was NEVER going to stay with Spain. It had lost control of it by the time of 1898.

Is they still a Civil War? Mostly likely because Spain's issues came all the way back to the Napoleonic Wars when it got invaded.

Would it be a Fascist Spanish Philippines? Or a Republican holdout? Or do the Filipinos kick the Spanish out during the Civil War?
 
The Philippine Revolution was a thing in 1898, and was conceived a generation before that. Unless you, say, give this country the same privileges that America wanted from Britain before the Revolution (representation, the same rights that the people who live in Spain, secularization of the Church), Spain is not going to be able to keep these islands.

In any case, butterflies should start flapping at least two generations before WW2. Which means the Russo-Japanese War may not even happen as IOTL, let alone the World Wars.

Hell, Japan could end up intervening down here instead, if America isn't interested.
 
If there was no War of 1898 and the Spanish eventually defeated the guerrillas then its doubtful that the Spanish would have sold the islands they sell the Pacific Islands they had left (after loosing the Philippines and Guam to the USA IOTL) to Germany, which in turn means Japan doesn't occupy them in World War One and keep them as a League of Nations Mandated Territory afterwards.

If the Spanish Civil War still happens then my guess is that the Philippines would make a unilateral declaration of independence in 1936. Or they become independent in 1931 by mutual agreement with the Spanish Second Republic. A third and less likely alternative is that Alfonso XIII flies to the Philippines in 1931.
 
If the Spanish Civil War still happens then my guess is that the Philippines would make a unilateral declaration of independence in 1936.

If that happens I can see the Spanish selling basically their claim to the Philippines to Japan, taking the money, and letting the Japanese deal with it
 
If there was no War of 1898 and the Spanish eventually defeated the guerrillas then its doubtful that the Spanish would have sold the islands they sell the Pacific Islands they had left (after loosing the Philippines and Guam to the USA IOTL) to Germany, which in turn means Japan doesn't occupy them in World War One and keep them as a League of Nations Mandated Territory afterwards.

If the Spanish Civil War still happens then my guess is that the Philippines would make a unilateral declaration of independence in 1936. Or they become independent in 1931 by mutual agreement with the Spanish Second Republic. A third and less likely alternative is that Alfonso XIII flies to the Philippines in 1931.

I don't see why they won't get rid of it. Too many problems from it and Spain was not doing very well, and needed money. Spain beat the Filipino guerrillas? Can't see that without pouring a ton of money and man power into that, something that would backfire on them. A good joke in fact.

Best to just get rid of it, sell it to someone and let it be nation X's issue then the Spanish.
 
If there was no War of 1898 and the Spanish eventually defeated the guerrillas then its doubtful that the Spanish would have sold the islands they sell the Pacific Islands they had left (after loosing the Philippines and Guam to the USA IOTL) to Germany, which in turn means Japan doesn't occupy them in World War One and keep them as a League of Nations Mandated Territory afterwards.

They weren't guerrillas, though, they were a significant part of the middle class, including the landed gentry.

You can't do this without getting rid of the systemic problems, of which there were too many for everyone, from the tenant farmer to the ilustrado, to tolerate. Unless you have sweeping reforms that turn this country from an economic colony to basically a dominion of a Spanish Commonwealth, or simply sell it to another great power, there is no way these isles would not have gone independent.

And in the former case, then that is where alt-Alfonso XIII comes to these isles.
 
And in the former case, then that is where alt-Alfonso XIII comes to these isles.

How long would it last? He would be shot as soon as soon he step foot in Manila. A dominion of a Spanish Commonwealth would last a day, or any Spanish Commonwealth for that matter.
 
I don't see why they won't get rid of it. Too many problems from it and Spain was not doing very well, and needed money. Spain beat the Filipino guerrillas? Can't see that without pouring a ton of money and man power into that, something that would backfire on them. A good joke in fact.

Best to just get rid of it, sell it to someone and let it be nation X's issue then the Spanish.
AFAIK the German Ambassador was standing outside the Cortez with an open chequebook in one hand and a pen in the other. The Kaiser was furious when the Americans beat him to it. I started a thread about a German Philippines some time ago.
 
AFAIK the German Ambassador was standing outside the Cortez with an open chequebook in one hand and a pen in the other. The Kaiser was furious when the Americans beat him to it. I started a thread about a German Philippines some time ago.

I think i remember that i think.

I would love to see a good TL on that.

Link to it?
 
They weren't guerrillas, though, they were a significant part of the middle class, including the landed gentry.

You can't do this without getting rid of the systemic problems, of which there were too many for everyone, from the tenant farmer to the ilustrado, to tolerate. Unless you have sweeping reforms that turn this country from an economic colony to basically a dominion of a Spanish Commonwealth, or simply sell it to another great power, there is no way these isles would not have gone independent.

And in the former case, then that is where alt-Alfonso XIII comes to these isles.
I don't know enough about the subject to disagree with you.

I was simply trying to point out that if the Spanish did keep the Philippines to World War II, they keep the Caroline and Marinas Islands too.
 
If the Germans got the PI in 1898, they would have lost them after WWI like the Pacific Islands. I'm not sure how they would have wound up, given their size and population (some sort of protectorate probably) but IMHO they would not have gone to the Japanese. back to the POD. Assuming that Spain still owns the PI in 1941, and Franco is running Spain, there is no need for Japan to attack the PI. The Spanish will present no risk to Japan in shipping goodies from SEA to the home islands, which was the reason they attacked the PI OTL because the US could interdict supply lines. In fact Japan would be happy to bypass the PI because it allows them more forces for SEA, and if they are going to attack the USA for that as well. There are no key raw materials in the PI they desperately need, and they can buy what they need - if Spain has kept the PI I would bet Japan has a much larger commercial presence there than OTL.

If by 1941 the PI are independent (either from internal revolution or ending of some protectorate) unless they are very closely tied to a military alliance with one of the major powers Japan will be at war with, which is unlikely, then the independent PI represents no military threat. Absent some alliance and major power military basing in the PI the PI has no reason to say boo to the Japanese. Staying a neutral, even "friendly" like allowing flights over their territory, passage through coastal waters, selling things like food and so forth, the PI avoids being invaded.

SEA was invaded by the Japanese because it had resources such as oil, tin, rice, and more that Japan needed to run its economy as well as continue the war in China. In 1941 the PI really have none of these critical items. The PI were taken because they represented a threat to Japanese supply lines when the USA had major bases there. No bases, no threat, no reason to invade.
 
I was simply trying to point out that if the Spanish did keep the Philippines to World War II, they keep the Caroline and Marinas Islands too.

Ah, I see.

SEA was invaded by the Japanese because it had resources such as oil, tin, rice, and more that Japan needed to run its economy as well as continue the war in China. In 1941 the PI really have none of these critical items. The PI were taken because they represented a threat to Japanese supply lines when the USA had major bases there. No bases, no threat, no reason to invade.

We have rice, at least, along with some metals. And our position is such that if Japan wants to expand beyond Korea and China, it'll need to go through us regardless.
 
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