WI: Spanish less lucky in the Americas

[SavoyTruffle]

So Spanish colonization of the New World, while starting out similarly to future colonization models, got a huge shot in the arm with the efforts of the conquistadors Cortes and Pizarro. Their conquests of the Aztecs and Inca pretty much expanded the Spanish colonial empire virtually overnight, as instead of settling "terra nullius" (nevermind that most colonies had their native populations decimated by disease) they took over existing empires, integrated their existing infrastructures to an extent, and turned to resource extraction especially of precious metals as colonial policy.

However, both Cortes and Pizarro got astoundingly lucky when they launched their campaigns. The Triple Alliance was largely disliked throughout what would become Mexico, as their domination of the region earned them the ire of their neighbors including the Tlaxcala. Cortes found allies among this group, easing the way for a conquest. Pizarro not only arrived in a Empire that was beginning to feel the effects of the Columbian Exchange, yet was even luckier as he and his crew arrived in South America just as a succession crisis loomed in the Tahuantinsuyu. Taking advantage of the chaos, and making efficient use of their technological force multipliers, Pizarro and crew managed to win at Cajamarca, and begun a piecemeal conquest of the vast Inca Empire.

So what if the Conquistradors were far less lucky than in OTL? Would the Spanish colonial empire have expanded as quickly? Would their colonization model be closer to the subsequent English or French models?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

So Spanish colonization of the New World, while starting out similarly to future colonization models, got a huge shot in the arm with the efforts of the conquistadors Cortes and Pizarro. Their conquests of the Aztecs and Inca pretty much expanded the Spanish colonial empire virtually overnight, as instead of settling "terra nullius" (nevermind that most colonies had their native populations decimated by disease) they took over existing empires, integrated their existing infrastructures to an extent, and turned to resource extraction especially of precious metals as colonial policy.

However, both Cortes and Pizarro got astoundingly lucky when they launched their campaigns. The Triple Alliance was largely disliked throughout what would become Mexico, as their domination of the region earned them the ire of their neighbors including the Tlaxcala. Cortes found allies among this group, easing the way for a conquest. Pizarro not only arrived in a Empire that was beginning to feel the effects of the Columbian Exchange, yet was even luckier as he and his crew arrived in South America just as a succession crisis loomed in the Tahuantinsuyu. Taking advantage of the chaos, and making efficient use of their technological force multipliers, Pizarro and crew managed to win at Cajamarca, and begun a piecemeal conquest of the vast Inca Empire.

So what if the Conquistradors were far less lucky than in OTL? Would the Spanish colonial empire have expanded as quickly? Would their colonization model be closer to the subsequent English or French models?

I’m guessing that a less lucky Spain just mean a slower conquest or no conquest at all in some case and more native resistance . Seeing how the Spanish will still expand in region massively more populated than the rest of America and with the native population still numerous enough to be exploited I don’t think that they Spanish colonization model will really be that much closer to their French or English counterpart even if it will assuredly different than OTL

 

[Prince of Permsia]

I've often wondered if the Aztec and Inca rulers could have negotiated their own entry into Christendom like the rulers of Poland and Lithuania had.

 

[rfmcdonald]

The thing about the Spanish empire is that, by being the first to arrive in the Caribbean, they were in a position to shut out rivals. The only other ways to reach Mexico and Peru would have required unprecedented circumnavigations of South America

 

[St. Just]

The thing about the Spanish empire is that, by being the first to arrive in the Caribbean, they were in a position to shut out rivals. The only other ways to reach Mexico and Peru would have required unprecedented circumnavigations of South America

Well, there was Aleixo Garcia's expedition to what is now Bolivia via the Parana, with help from the local Guarani -- if you can conquer Peru from the south, it does theoretically leave the Caribbean open, and leaves the door open for a discovery of Mexico via the isthmus and the Pacific rather than via the Caribbean.

 

[GameBawesome]

I think if Cortez expedition was disastrous, the the Spanish may try to Portugal’s model, and create a trading post empire in the New World

The Spanish could try their hands at conquering tribes, like the chichimeca (again, probably disastrous, seeing how it went OTL), or wait for disease to take its toll on the natives, and swoop in into depopulated areas.

 

[Gloss]

Everything else being equal, the conquests are just slower but not butterflied as the impact of diseases and droughts was going to be felt regardless and the Spanish logistical capabilities and demographics only get better as time goes on.

 

[RedKing]

The countries that colonise the Americas might be a lot more diverse if Spain doesn’t make their massive land grab

 

[HJ Tulp]

I think if Cortez expedition was disastrous, the the Spanish may try to Portugal’s model, and create a trading post empire in the New World

A trading post empire is not so useful if there is noone to trade with because everyone died of the smallpox.

 

[AltoRegnant]

I think if Cortez expedition was disastrous, the the Spanish may try to Portugal’s model, and create a trading post empire in the New World

The Spanish could try their hands at conquering tribes, like the chichimeca (again, probably disastrous, seeing how it went OTL), or wait for disease to take its toll on the natives, and swoop in into depopulated areas.

cortez's expedition was entirely illegal; it failing would change little in the end. Spain would still try to conquer the gold-filled streets from the pagans, but they would send in an actual army.

 

[EWHM]

Cortez had ASB level luck. People would call him a 'Mary Sue' if he were a fictional character. Were he a character in an RPG, the game master would be called a "Monty Haul DM".

 

[SunKing105]

I've often wondered if the Aztec and Inca rulers could have negotiated their own entry into Christendom like the rulers of Poland and Lithuania had.

Conversion didn't save either of their asses from the shenanigans of the Teutonic Order and others, it didn't save the Kingdom of Kongo, it wouldn't save the Aztec or Inca from the Spaniards either.

 

[Silver01]

I think it heavily delays the conquest I mean sure small pox is a thing but people forget as time passes the natives would have more time to imunity and adapt and also different circumstances who is to say the next Sapa inca is not as arrogant as atahualpa and has pizzaro or any one else of his expedition captured and most likely killed

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Cortez had ASB level luck. People would call him a 'Mary Sue' if he were a fictional character. Were he a character in an RPG, the game master would be called a "Monty Haul DM".

If Cortes were lucky then Pizarro would be the guy who drank a pint of Felix Felicis.

 

[EWHM]

If Cortes were lucky then Pizarro would be the guy who drank a pint of Felix Felicis.

Pizarro had the same DM as Cortez. Guy was a serious Monty Haul DM, probably the trope originator. No doubt he'd heard from Cortez that the DM in charge of the Americas had gone soft.

 

[Brady Kj]

A lot more native cultures and languages would survive, or at least some of the more populous cultures like the Inka would still have political power.