WI Spanish government flees to New Spain in Napoleonic Wars

Suppose that the Spanish Royal family and the government flee to New Spain after Napoleon invades in imitation of what the Portuguese did IOTL. Instead of Ferdinand VII accepting his father relinquishing his rights to the throne in favour of Napoleon instead of him, he sets sail for New Spain and doesn't recognise Joseph Bonaparte as King while using his limited means to support the anti-Napoleonic forces and his claim to the throne. Ferdinand VII stays there for some years and sets up a court-in-exile and an administrative centre and the local administrators, clergy, bourgeoisie and provincial governors get more power because they are brought into the new interim government established in Mexico City since Ferdinand VII can't do it with the few guys he brought with him from Spain.

Is this at all plausible? If so, what would the consequences be, what happens?

Thoughts? Ideas?
 
Some thing happened in the AHN Universe, except it was the Dutch Monarch who was exiled in Brazil.

In the case of Spain, which colony would they head to? Mexico, Colombia or Peru? I'd think one of the first two seems most likely.
 
I've actually been doing some reading on this period recently, and I just don't know how realistic the Spanish monarchy fleeing a la the house of braganca. At this point, the people are indifferently approving of Murat's men, Fernando is plotting a palace coup, and Carlos IV has very limited support. In fact, Fernando is doing everything that he can to be a supportive ally of Napoleon. As for fleeing after the French reach Madrid, that seems a bit of a stretch.
 
I've actually been doing some reading on this period recently, and I just don't know how realistic the Spanish monarchy fleeing a la the house of braganca. At this point, the people are indifferently approving of Murat's men, Fernando is plotting a palace coup, and Carlos IV has very limited support. In fact, Fernando is doing everything that he can to be a supportive ally of Napoleon. As for fleeing after the French reach Madrid, that seems a bit of a stretch.

Oh, it's a realistic option. Of course, the moment is definitive to make it possible.
The first option, when the mutiny of Aranjuez happened, Charles IV was actually fleeing to Seville to take a ship direction Mexico.
The second option , the meeting between Ferdinand VII and Napoleon was originally intended to be in Burgos. When Ferdinand arrived there, he was recalled for a meeting in Vitoria (Napoleon wasn't in Burgos). And when he arrived to Vitoria, instead Napoleon, he found general Savory with a letter from the Emperor changing, another time, the place of meeting for Bayonne. The tone of the letter was not exactly encouraging for Ferdinand's hope. At this point, several members of his entourage sugested Ferdinand to go to Laredo instead Bayonne in order to take a ship to reach Mexico. But he preferred the risky bet, and he lost.

Regarding Murat's men, the authorities were rather supportive or indeferent, but I'm not so sure about the people. It was clear that the french weren't going to observe the treaty of Fontainebleau, and there are some reports of hostility towards the french troops (although it was probably the norm at the time regardless the nationality, when having troops stationed near your home was actually a problem)
 
Oh, it's a realistic option. Of course, the moment is definitive to make it possible.
The first option, when the mutiny of Aranjuez happened, Charles IV was actually fleeing to Seville to take a ship direction Mexico.

I'm not sure if this is really a viable option. At this point Carlos is in fairly hostile territory, and surrounded by the royal guard, which is sympathetic to the Fernandinos. he may make it away, but even if he does it only entrenches Fernando in power.

The second option , the meeting between Ferdinand VII and Napoleon was originally intended to be in Burgos. When Ferdinand arrived there, he was recalled for a meeting in Vitoria (Napoleon wasn't in Burgos). And when he arrived to Vitoria, instead Napoleon, he found general Savory with a letter from the Emperor changing, another time, the place of meeting for Bayonne. The tone of the letter was not exactly encouraging for Ferdinand's hope. At this point, several members of his entourage sugested Ferdinand to go to Laredo instead Bayonne in order to take a ship to reach Mexico. But he preferred the risky bet, and he lost.

Maybe some potential. Part of the issue is Fernando himself; he doesn't really seem to me the sort that would cut and run like this. And I would be a bit surprised if Napoleon let such a valuable person slip through his grasp at that stage. Still, possible, I suppose...

Regarding Murat's men, the authorities were rather supportive or indeferent, but I'm not so sure about the people. It was clear that the french weren't going to observe the treaty of Fontainebleau, and there are some reports of hostility towards the french troops (although it was probably the norm at the time regardless the nationality, when having troops stationed near your home was actually a problem)

Popular opinion at this point is behind Fernando, for the most part. Murat's men, IIRC, were generally perceived as backing the prince. You're right that the french troops stirred up a fair bit of resentment (something to do with quartering, I think), but I don't think that this was anything too extraordinary.
 
I'm not sure if this is really a viable option. At this point Carlos is in fairly hostile territory, and surrounded by the royal guard, which is sympathetic to the Fernandinos. he may make it away, but even if he does it only entrenches Fernando in power.

Hmmm, the Fernandino guards were part of the plot, mainly planned by the count of Montijo. I mean, the original guard was probably bribed to put in their place more sypathetic people. Bear in mind that Aranjuez is in the middle of nowhere, about 50km from Madrid and the village around the palace was rather small and created only some decades before. The mutiny was not an spontaneous uprising, but a well prepared plot cooked in the high spheres wich used hired people mainly brought from Madrid. And with the state of the economy at the time, I guess it was not difficult to find people ready to do the performance for a low price. You are right, Charles IV was not in the best of his popularity, but the ires of people were more cibled towards Godoy, in a very old regime mentality: "Long live to the king, death to the bad government". I think that a plot of this nature could be relatively easily butterflied, delayed or disarticulated (as happened with the previous attempt) to give Charles IV the time to follow the path of his portuguese counterpart. If Ferdinand has not his father's resignation probably, despite the unrest against Godoy, he will have still a serious problem of legitimacy. And with an ocean of distance and a ongoing war in the peninsula, mybe charles V can see his positon less menaced.


Maybe some potential. Part of the issue is Fernando himself; he doesn't really seem to me the sort that would cut and run like this. And I would be a bit surprised if Napoleon let such a valuable person slip through his grasp at that stage. Still, possible, I suppose...

Well, I think Ferdinand was rather reckless than brave, but I agree what he did was the more probable outcome and Napoleon guessed it. However, if he choose to fly and Napoleon wants to catch him he should be very careful. At this point, Napoleon's plan was to make the things to seem rightful and inside the law, even as a result of the will of the spanish people. So, I'm not sure if he will risk a violent "kidnaping" of the spanish king. Also, Laredo or, if necessary, Bilbao are not far from Vitoria and I guess Ferdinand could fly before the french relized it.


Popular opinion at this point is behind Fernando, for the most part. Murat's men, IIRC, were generally perceived as backing the prince. You're right that the french troops stirred up a fair bit of resentment (something to do with quartering, I think), but I don't think that this was anything too extraordinary.

Yes, probably there were hopes in Ferdinand, specially because the repulse against Godoy, but, due the nature of power at the time, it is difficult to know what was actually the general "opinion". On the other hand, the the french presence was tricky, I think. Although Ferdinand was influenced and backed by the french, the alliance with France was not too popular, specially after the military disasters against the british during the decade and the econmic consequences and, after all, the Treaty of Fontainebleau was in great extent the result of Godoy's personal ambition. Anyway I agree with you in the last part, as I said the resent against stationed troops was not extraordinary at the time, because the problems of quartering and the problems of public order they used to cause.

Cheers.
 
I've actually been doing some reading on this period recently, and I just don't know how realistic the Spanish monarchy fleeing a la the house of braganca. At this point, the people are indifferently approving of Murat's men, Fernando is plotting a palace coup, and Carlos IV has very limited support. In fact, Fernando is doing everything that he can to be a supportive ally of Napoleon. As for fleeing after the French reach Madrid, that seems a bit of a stretch.

Well, the Court did try to flee to Cadiz for precisely this reason, only to be stopped by a mob. So it doesn't seem that implausible, no?
 
Anyway, I wonder if this will really have a long-term effect. The king heads over, with a bunch of penninsulares. Who only exacerbate the fact that the Creoles aren't treated equally. And the King has the personality of a wet cement. So...
 
Anyway, I wonder if this will really have a long-term effect. The king heads over, with a bunch of penninsulares. Who only exacerbate the fact that the Creoles aren't treated equally. And the King has the personality of a wet cement. So...

Well, that depends on what happens after the war. I'll assume we have a situation similar to the portuguese-brazilian and that implies some important changes in the future of the Hispanic America. But before that, some remarks. The latin american movements started mainly as autonomist and monarchist movements, not as independentist ones. In a similar way to what happened in the Peninsula, the local cabildos tryed to form juntas and had some issues with the pretentions of the self-proclaimed Junta Central Suprema. Later the paths diverged, as an example, when the news of the uprising in the Peninsula arrived to Mexico, a puppet representing the king was paraded and cheered in the streets of the city. If the true king were in the city, the local member of the elite probably would have had spontaneous orgasms. Also, I think that the oposition criollos-peninsulares has been exaggerated by the historiography, usually too politicized and too nationalistic (in both sides of the Atlantic). But of course you may desagree. You can find peninsulares fighting for the independence and criollos fighting for the crown, leaving aside the mixed famillies. And for example, San Martín was he criollo or peninsular?

Returning to the question of the thread, if the king is in Mexico all the process started with the abdications of Bayonne is butterflied. Probably we will still see juntas in the Peninsula, but the king has still his own voice, so the conservative elements are stronger and the liberals had less freedom to play their cards. In my opinion, there are two possibilities. Not liberal revolution at all, not Constitution of 1812 etc or a successful Constitutional movement more "hostile" to the king and more Peninsular centralist, similar to portuguese events of 1820.

But the interesting options are in the Americas. With the king there, and if he doesn't do stupid things (always a possibility when we speak about a Bourbon) the process of independence would be, also, similar to the brazilian experience. That would mean less territorial fragmentation in the Hispanic America, since the royal figure will work as legitimate element of union, and more oportunities to those who wanted members of the royal familly reigning in the vicerroyalties. In sume, on the same way that Brazil kept finally its unity (not without problems, of course) I think we could have about five big states in the Hispanic America.

PS: I think we discussed the same question some months ago in the board. If I'm not wrong, Lusitania opened a thread about it. Maybe he can find it more easily and bring us the link.

Cheers.
 
Something similar does happen in LTTW, but that took numerous changes for Thande to pull off, so I'd say no.
 
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