WI - Spanish exiles in the Philippines?

Yes, I'm aware this requires a POD before 1900 but this discussion was going to take place after 1900 so I thought it would make sense to establish one here.

What if the Spaniards had managed to retain the Philippines where the Spanish Royal Family and a Carlist Government fled to the Philippines to establish a government-in-exile? What effects could this have on the Spanish Civil War? Could the Spanish government-in-exile defend against a Japanese invasion in World War 2 or is this implausible? How long could the Spanish government-in-exile remain in the Philippines before it eventually became independent and if it did, could the Spanish Royal Family be the official Royal Family of the Philippines or no?

Alternatively, what if the Spanish Republicans remained in control of the Philippines and chosen to flee to the Philippines instead of France, alongside whatever remained of their forces? Apply the same questions, with the exception of a Spanish-Filipino Royal Family, that are being asked above.
 
Like you said, this would need pre-1900 POD. And such POD would change history of early 20th century. Spanish Civil War might be butterflied away.
 
Like you said, this would need pre-1900 POD. And such POD would change history of early 20th century. Spanish Civil War might be butterflied away.
How much would be changed by the Spanish retaining control over the Philippines? How much would be butterflied anyway, other than a potential Spanish Civil War similar to OTL?
 
This looks like something that belongs in the pre-1900 forum, yes.

The Spanish-American War needs to be butterflied away, and Spain needs to have to have had the will to give Filipinos representation in the Cortes. Which it didn't. For that matter, allowing a native clergy as advocated by Pedro Pelaez and Gomburza would have also helped. Not purging the military and administration of Criollos loyal to Spain in favor of the Peninsulars also would have helped.

As for a Carlist government, considering the Carlists were the arch-conservatives... I don't think it would have worked out well. I mean, we'd probably have been enthralled with the novelty of the Spanish king himself deigning to visit these benighted isles, let alone live here... but if the arch-conservatives do as I expect, they'll definitely be guillotined French Revolution style by the time the Japanese arrive. :p
 
Then again, the Carlist forces fleeing here and co-opting the Criollos and Tagalogs, forming a conservative government but one that listens to its subjects, would be a bold and brilliant move, and an interesting path.
 
Then again, the Carlist forces fleeing here and co-opting the Criollos and Tagalogs, forming a conservative government but one that listens to its subjects, would be a bold and brilliant move, and an interesting path.
I'm not too much of an expert regarding the topic of the Spanish Philippines but seems quite interesting! What could happen after the Spanish form this aforementioned conservative government?
 
I'm not too much of an expert regarding the topic of the Spanish Philippines but seems quite interesting! What could happen after the Spanish form this aforementioned conservative government?

Unlikely they get a chance to before the Germans coming steaming into the harbor to take the islands for themselves, or at least "liberate" them for the legitimate Spainish government in exchange for basing rights or a concession of territory on which to build their own naval base.
 
Unlikely they get a chance to before the Germans coming steaming into the harbor to take the islands for themselves, or at least "liberate" them for the legitimate Spainish government in exchange for basing rights or a concession of territory on which to build their own naval base.
Wouldn't it be more likely to be the Japanese to "liberate" the Philippines? Y'know, Asia for Asians and all.
 
Wouldn't it be more likely to be the Japanese to "liberate" the Philippines? Y'know, Asia for Asians and all.

They're also less likely to get the OK from the international community to take them, and have less of a strategic reason for coveting them. Their main advantage is to allow for a staging ground of naval/military power and thus secure one's commercial presence in China... something Japan dosen't need.
 
They're also less likely to get the OK from the international community to take them, and have less of a strategic reason for coveting them. Their main advantage is to allow for a staging ground of naval/military power and thus secure one's commercial presence in China... something Japan dosen't need.
I was thinking the Japanese might to do it during World War 2 - if the Spanish government-in-exile and Philippines lasts that long - to secure their supply lines. Would the British, Americans and/or even the Dutch support the Spanish Philippines?
 
I was thinking the Japanese might to do it during World War 2 - if the Spanish government-in-exile and Philippines lasts that long - to secure their supply lines. Would the British, Americans and/or even the Dutch support the Spanish Philippines?

The Carlist Regime in the Philippines lasting until WW II is bordering on ASB without getting a forgien patron that essentially turns them into a colony/protectorate. Somebody is going to come take them over, Spain will send an expedition to take them back, the local Fillipenos will overthrow or co-opt them.
 
The Carlist Regime in the Philippines lasting until WW II is bordering on ASB without getting a forgien patron that essentially turns them into a colony/protectorate. Somebody is going to come take them over, Spain will send an expedition to take them back, the local Fillipenos will overthrow or co-opt them.
Could it be Japan or Britain? I can see the Carlists preferring the British but they may not have a choice.
 
What about the British securing the Carlist regime as a protectorate? :p
Perhaps there's some kind of Spanish-Anglo-Japanese pact that agrees to the protection of the Carlist government-in-exile, albeit with a few concessions to the Anglo-Japanese alliance who provide the Carlists with things such as weapons, advisors and resources.
 
What about the British securing the Carlist regime as a protectorate? :p
Could it be Japan or Britain? I can see the Carlists preferring the British but they may not have a choice.

That would mean effectively sacrificing relations with the Spanish in Spain. Who's more valuable? As I recently said in a thread discusing the viability of Nappy III setting up a similar regeime-in-exile, there's a reason most everybody with commerical dealings in the international community of note recognizes the PRC as the legit government instead of Taiwan. Sheer practicality makes recognizing the Carlists a burden with few practical benefits.
 
That would mean effectively sacrificing relations with the Spanish in Spain. Who's more valuable? As I recently said in a thread discusing the viability of Nappy III setting up a similar regeime-in-exile, there's a reason most everybody with commerical dealings in the international community of note recognizes the PRC as the legit government instead of Taiwan. Sheer practicality makes recognizing the Carlists a burden with few practical benefits.
So no one would recognize the Carlists in the Philippines, obviously. I was wondering, what's the longest the Carlist government-in-exile could last before it finally realizes that it will never be the legitimate government of Spain?
 
So no one would recognize the Carlists in the Philippines, obviously. I was wondering, what's the longest the Carlist government-in-exile could last before it finally realizes that it will never be the legitimate government of Spain?

The fact that they ran to the opposite side of the world with no concrete plan as to how to retake Spain means they likely already know
 
The fact that they ran to the opposite side of the world with no concrete plan as to how to retake Spain means they likely already know
True. I have a few more questions:
  • Would the Carlist regime in the Spanish Philippines participate in the Second World War 2 or remain neutral in the Pacific War?
  • What are its relations with neighboring European colonial powers?
  • Could the Japanese attempt to transform it into a de-facto protectorate and/or puppet state?
 
True. I have a few more questions:
  • Would the Carlist regime in the Spanish Philippines participate in the Second World War 2 or remain neutral in the Pacific War?
  • What are its relations with neighboring European colonial powers?
  • Could the Japanese attempt to transform it into a de-facto protectorate and/or puppet state?

^
The Carlist Regime in the Philippines lasting until WW II is bordering on ASB without getting a forgien patron that essentially turns them into a colony/protectorate. Somebody is going to come take them over, Spain will send an expedition to take them back, the local Fillipenos will overthrow or co-opt them.
 
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