What would be the geopolitical ramifications of Spain winning the Spanish-American War?
WI: Spain wins the Spanish American War?
- Thread starter Alternatehistoryguy47
- Start date
...
umm...
(sorry, I'm not the world's greatest tactician)
their navy pulls of a miracle similar to the british defeating the spanish armada and US forces never reach Cuba?
On one, america is WAY closer.
On the other, america's army was not always a giant.. but for a lot of it's history, america had a BAD, whimpy army...
On the other, america's army was not always a giant.. but for a lot of it's history, america had a BAD, whimpy army...
On still another, the Spanish garrison in Cuba was already more than a little preoccupied attempting to hold the island.
The rump of the Spanish Empire fell between two stools; though valuable it was too small and isolated to defend itself.
The rump of the Spanish Empire fell between two stools; though valuable it was too small and isolated to defend itself.
Was there 'Loyalists' in Cuba? (Wasn't this a war of 'liberation' of Cuba from Spain?)
umm... I really don't care about the PoD. I just want to know what the geopolitical effects would be.
The USA isn't taken seriously by the European powers this early - thus American entry into WWI wouldn't be as appreciated as OTL, though they'd surprise the Europeans when they enter (and on whose side they enter).
Maybe if Spain had made things wilingly or not that would make at the end more Loyalist feelings.. one factor, would make the 'resistance' harder to beat.
How about a random hurricane wipes out the American fleet in transit in the Caribbean? Oh, and the British/Germans don't allow Dewey to get close enough to attack Manila Bay. Without the Navy to take out the bulk of Spanish coastal defenses, the ramshackle US Army (with all its training and logistical problems) is unable to mount landings on either island colony.
The earlier is not totaly impossible.. wildly improbable, but possible... The area is prone to such WILD weather events we all know, and the Mongols got it centuries before in Asia...
I'm just trying to come up with enough of a rationalization so that we can move on and discuss the OP's questions.
I think the best you can hope for in a Spanish 'victory' is that they hang onto the Philippines and later sell them and their Pacific possessions to a European ally. I don't think Spain can really prevent American troops from landing in Cuba. Well, if they divert their resources to Puerto Rico they will probably be able to hang on to at least that as well, making it an autonomous province within the empire.
So let's imagine that: The USA manages to occupy Cuba faster than OTL, so Spain begins to pool its military resources into Puerto Rico. When the US starts island hopping from Hawaii towards the Marshall Islands, Spain sues for peace and offers to sell the US Cuba in exchange for letting them keep the Philippines. They make a quick buck off of Cuba, and later sell the Philippines to Germany.
So the geopolitical ramifications are that Germany has more presence in Southeast Asia, Spain is still in control of Puerto Rico and is a little wealthier from it all. Maybe in this scenario, since the US doesn't have the Philippines, they make Cuba a state. I wonder what the extra cash in Spain's pocket means for them? Heck, maybe in this case their percieved victory helps their national identity and they hook up with the Central Powers in WWI.
So let's imagine that: The USA manages to occupy Cuba faster than OTL, so Spain begins to pool its military resources into Puerto Rico. When the US starts island hopping from Hawaii towards the Marshall Islands, Spain sues for peace and offers to sell the US Cuba in exchange for letting them keep the Philippines. They make a quick buck off of Cuba, and later sell the Philippines to Germany.
So the geopolitical ramifications are that Germany has more presence in Southeast Asia, Spain is still in control of Puerto Rico and is a little wealthier from it all. Maybe in this scenario, since the US doesn't have the Philippines, they make Cuba a state. I wonder what the extra cash in Spain's pocket means for them? Heck, maybe in this case their percieved victory helps their national identity and they hook up with the Central Powers in WWI.
Interesting to see how forelorn a discussion can be after the loss of a slew of knowledgable older members...
Previous discussions on this topic have always pointed out that the Spanish had a good chance of throwing the Americans back into the sea after they landed and inflicting heavy casualties
That would then be a test of US resolve - do they raise another expeditionary force and this time land properly in Cuba and slog it out, or does the public begin to wonder what on Earth they're doing and it all goes Bay of Pigs?
Personally, I don't think the Spanish Navy is a lost cause - if it sortied and went on the offensive, then it could at least emulate the Russians at Port Arthur, ie carry out a load of stinging raids against the enemy before, quite likely, ending up sunk. In this scenario the lucky break can count - a battle entered into unexpectedly by both sides could end up with a surprise Spanish victory
Having that for the PoD is going to break US morale, because without a fleet they cannot contemplate an invasion (which is why in OTL the invasion did not happen until the Spanish fleet was sunk). If the US fleet has largely gone to the bottom, then the US is stuck.
They would no doubt try to find a face-saving formula to get out of the war, guarantees for Cuban "autonomy" or some such, that the Spanish would soon enough renege on.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Previous discussions on this topic have always pointed out that the Spanish had a good chance of throwing the Americans back into the sea after they landed and inflicting heavy casualties
That would then be a test of US resolve - do they raise another expeditionary force and this time land properly in Cuba and slog it out, or does the public begin to wonder what on Earth they're doing and it all goes Bay of Pigs?
Personally, I don't think the Spanish Navy is a lost cause - if it sortied and went on the offensive, then it could at least emulate the Russians at Port Arthur, ie carry out a load of stinging raids against the enemy before, quite likely, ending up sunk. In this scenario the lucky break can count - a battle entered into unexpectedly by both sides could end up with a surprise Spanish victory
Having that for the PoD is going to break US morale, because without a fleet they cannot contemplate an invasion (which is why in OTL the invasion did not happen until the Spanish fleet was sunk). If the US fleet has largely gone to the bottom, then the US is stuck.
They would no doubt try to find a face-saving formula to get out of the war, guarantees for Cuban "autonomy" or some such, that the Spanish would soon enough renege on.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Regarding the Philippines, the US will be irrelevant there if they don't take it, which in this scenario they won't. The Filipino rebels will look to Britian (Hong Kong) or to Japan, but cannot win against Spain without outside help.
If Spain has de facto defeated the US in the Caribbean, then other countries won't be inclined so much as to pounce on Spain as if it is a corpse, so you won't get the Germans or Japanese trying to force themselves on Manila
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
If Spain has de facto defeated the US in the Caribbean, then other countries won't be inclined so much as to pounce on Spain as if it is a corpse, so you won't get the Germans or Japanese trying to force themselves on Manila
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Why not? The Filipinos didn't have outside help in OTL, and it took the US years to suppress the Filipino rebellion.
And the Spanish were pretty SOL here even before the Americans fought them.
Because nobody will recognise them, and no one will prevent will prevent the Spanish clamping down on them, especially now it has to all intents and purposes secured Cuba
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Snake Featherston
Banned
The easiest way for Spain to win is for the US Army to stay in the war long enough for General Yellow Fever to take control. Spain wins by default. More difficult means require the Spanish to in Cuba counter the results of Commodore Dewey's victories in Manila. The US Army was waging a war with Civil War-style linear tactics and skirmish lines and had some major logistical issues in simply supplying its forces, while there were instances during the battles where a more assertive approach on the part of the Spanish could have produced victory. Neither side's generals were particular geniuses in tactics and it doesn't take much in the 1890s to throw back an army with 1860s clothing and tactics.
The problem is that Dewey is going to in all likelihood win Manila Bay regardless, though Spain preserving Cuba, which it sees as a province, is likely to have some interesting butterflies on its own. No TR as POTUS for one thing.
The problem is that Dewey is going to in all likelihood win Manila Bay regardless, though Spain preserving Cuba, which it sees as a province, is likely to have some interesting butterflies on its own. No TR as POTUS for one thing.