WI: Spain successfuly enters the 7YW

At the final years of the Seven Years' War, France managed to coax Spain (who shared a ruling dynasty with them) into joining the war on France's side, as they were losing allies. The spanish decied to attack Portugal as the country was nominally pro-british and proved a possible threat if admitted properly into the british alliance system. However, the portuguese managed to surprisingly defeat the spanish through clever use of guerrilla warfare, tactical retreats and troop movements commanded by the count of Lippe, Friedrich Wilhelm. Such an event was later baptized as the Fantastic War (Guerra Fantástica), and prevented the successful entry of Spain into the Seven Years' War, which could be a burden to the british alliance system despite the balance having been tipped to their side a few years before. The war also saw significant troop movements in a brazilian side-theater.
But what if Wilhelm made too many mistakes during the defense of the portuguese homeland? What if Portugal lost the Fantastic War?
-This would obviously mean that the country would be put under spanish occupation until the end of the war. How well would Portugal be pacified? Would the guerrillas be a very big burden on the spanish military?
-The spanish would probably seize some of the portuguese navy for their own use, and with Portugal removed from the equation, the spanish navy could have been stronger and more able to take on the british fleets. Is that true?
-How would a more successful spanish entry into the 7YW affect the war as a whole? Would the country be enough for the balance to be tipped into the french side? Would it be negligible? Or would it butterfly the war's end into a stalemate?
-What are the ramifications in the portuguese colonies?
 
-This would obviously mean that the country would be put under spanish occupation until the end of the war. How well would Portugal be pacified? Would the guerrillas be a very big burden on the spanish military?

The Spanish-French force was defeated by the Ordenanças, that was an official part of the army of Portugal that acted as a Guerrilla force. They were supposed to act autonomously from the other two lines, the Regulars and the Militia, so considering OTL's action on both the Fantastic War and on the French Invasions I would expect to the occupation to be a black hole of resources and men,

-The spanish would probably seize some of the portuguese navy for their own use, and with Portugal removed from the equation, the spanish navy could have been stronger and more able to take on the british fleets. Is that true?

How? Most of the navy was spread over the Empire and the squadron in Lisbon would just have to travel to the colonies or the Islands to avoid capture. Also the Brists would never accept for the Spanish, or the French, to get their hands on the Portuguese navy during a peace treaty because then those ships would become a threat to their navy.

-How would a more successful spanish entry into the 7YW affect the war as a whole? Would the country be enough for the balance to be tipped into the french side? Would it be negligible? Or would it butterfly the war's end into a stalemate?

I don't think it would change anything. Most people here don't usually remember the Fantastic War, and neither do we remember about it in Portugal.

-What are the ramifications in the portuguese colonies?

Not much changes. We would lose Uruguay, again, and the American borders between the colonies get some minor changes but nothing massive.
 
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the war was winnable for the Spanish. they blundered badly in a lot of ways, and ultimately blew it.

First was timing. Ferdinand, (or probably more realistically put, his portuguese wife who truly ran the roost) favored the Portuguese/British side and stayed neutral. By the time Ferdinand and Barbara were in the grave, and Carlos (with his anti british views) on the throne, France had already lost the war, and Britain had spare troops to send to Portugal and elsewhere to defeat Spain. You need Carlos to ascend the throne several years earlier. Joining in '57 or 58 may have changed much, for a lot of combatants. a Florida front when North America was still up for grabs might change that region, and Britain doesn't have spare troops for taking Cuba or aiding Portugal.

Second was logistics. Spain went for speed and didn't plan supplies for an extended campaign.

Third was strategy. They got deep into Portugal, then found raging rivers blocked their way to Lisbon, and then found no way to decisively conquer the country. The British found time to reinforce Portugal, the guerrillas took heart, Spain ran out of supplies, and all was lost.

But at that point in the overall war, what really would have been achieved had all gone well? Spain really could't expect to swallow up Portugal, or extract much from them. Unless you also make Spain do better elsewhere in the world, they're going to have to trade all the gains back to Britain to get back to pre war status quo, and that's only IF Britain decides to stick by Portugal and bargain on their behalf.

If ever there was a stupid decision to go to war this was it. At that point, Britain had won the war, France had lost, and Spain was not going to change that no matter how they did in Portugal. It's one thing to join a side that loses. Quite another to join the losing side after they lost. It's not like France was going to attack Spain if Spain had decided to remain on the sidelines. France was shot at that point.
 
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