WI Spain still owned her colonies in the pacific in1941

[Hörnla]

Even with a war between the U.S. and Spain in 1898, the Philippines could have stayed, for the moment, Spanish. But independence would likely have soon come,

I fully agree.

IIRC, Spain was barely clinging on to its Empire by the start of the Spanish-American war. To contain the rebellion on Cuba, it had to resort to oppression tactics resulting in proto-Concentration Camps.

Even without a war, Cuban separatist would be probable to receive private or even political support from the mainland. Once Cuba is a republic, it would fall under the Monroe doctrine and be safe of any intervention (except of USAmerican ones ).

If anybody has doubts on the Phillipine desire for independance, I suggest reading on the trouble the US had during its "liberation". The Phillipines had declared independance in 1898 and rebel forces controlled almost all of Luzon before the first Marine set foot on the island. I am not sure if Germany could have coped with a rebellion this far away from home - and they couldn't rely on any friends in the region.

 

[Don Lardo]

If anybody has doubts on the Phillipine desire for independance, I suggest reading on the trouble the US had during its "liberation". The Phillipines had declared independance in 1898 and rebel forces controlled almost all of Luzon before the first Marine set foot on the island.

Despite what the Aguinaldo faction believed then and others would like to believe now, Luzon is not the whole of the Philippines. There were plenty of other people on plenty of other islands who preferred colonial rule if the only other option was rule from Luzon.

Because the Philippines is not monolithic and because the great powers were not as squeamish as we are today, the US put down the Filipino Rebellion rather successfully and rather rapidly. In three years nearly the entire archipelago was quiet enough for "school marms" from Kansas to travel alone to their assigned villages.

I am not sure if Germany could have coped with a rebellion this far away from home - and they couldn't rely on any friends in the region.

I am. The distance isn't any greater, friends in the region don't account for a thing, and, as their behavior in what would become Namibia shows, the Germans wouldn't have any qualms behaving like the Americans did.

 

[Landshark]

While it's all well and good to talk about whether or not Spain would have been able to retain it's Pacific colonies until the 1940's it's got nothing to do with this thread. The OP asks what would have happened if Spain did retain it's Pacific colonies in 1941, not could Spain have retained it's Pacific colonies until 1941.

Now you can say such a thing is improbable or inplausible but you can't say it's impossible or that it's ASB. It may be farther along the probability curve than a time line where the Philippines were independent or the USN's aircraft carriers were at Pearl Habor on December 7 1941 but it's still not impossible and it's still not only doable by the intervention of magic space aliens. It just takes a help of a lot of unlikely coincidences and handwaves on the part of the author.

So to get back on track, it's December 1941, the Philippines are still a Spanish colony and as the OP doesn't mention any other changes they're under the control of Franco's regime. Does Japan attack either or both the Philippines or the USA?

 

[Wendell]

While it's all well and good to talk about whether or not Spain would have been able to retain it's Pacific colonies until the 1940's it's got nothing to do with this thread. The OP asks what would have happened if Spain did retain it's Pacific colonies in 1941, not could Spain have retained it's Pacific colonies until 1941.

Now you can say such a thing is improbable or inplausible but you can't say it's impossible or that it's ASB. It may be farther along the probability curve than a time line where the Philippines were independent or the USN's aircraft carriers were at Pearl Habor on December 7 1941 but it's still not impossible and it's still not only doable by the intervention of magic space aliens. It just takes a help of a lot of unlikely coincidences and handwaves on the part of the author.

So to get back on track, it's December 1941, the Philippines are still a Spanish colony and as the OP doesn't mention any other changes they're under the control of Franco's regime. Does Japan attack either or both the Philippines or the USA?

The USA, no, but the Philippines, absolutely. Unless the U.S. position on China has changed, which is possible given butterflies stemming from the POD, Japan is still short on resources for conductig its war in China, and still needs oil from the East Indies. What the consequences of this are in Europe is anyone's guess.

 

[Cook]

So to get back on track, it's December 1941, the Philippines are still a Spanish colony and as the OP doesn't mention any other changes they're under the control of Franco's regime. Does Japan attack either or both the Philippines or the USA?

They would have no reason to attack a friendly neutral. A Spanish Philippines poses no threat to Japan’s supply lines to and from the Southern Recourse Area (Dutch East Indies and Malaya). Just the opposite, they provide a very good buffer protecting Japan’s flank.

The Japanese would certainly ask Franco for port access, most likely in line with German U-boats replenishing in Spanish ports rather than an occupation like that of French Indo-China, which was done specifically to block aid going to the Nationalist Chinese.

 

[raharris1973]

1st off, to the OP and the question the OP reiterated, I think Cook had the best answer-

On Hawaii

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell View Post
Are we assuming that things regarding Hawaii go the same as in our timeline up until 1941?

Hawaii fell rather nicely into American hands and served as a proper buffer to the US. Even without a Spanish-American War to snatch the Philippines away I still see Hawaii following a similar course to OTL. It would be a territory still as we knew it to be. My question is what Japanese - American relations would be with a more isolationist America.

Given a more isolationist America due to no American Phillipinnes, then would the US interact with Japan enough for long enough time to develop economic ties for which the cutting of would mean an attack on America by Japan? I doubt it.

Although having the Spanish-American War did not hurt, there was an independent impetus for the US taking Hawaii by about the time it did. Longer term US involvement and settlement, greater proximity, etc. Plus there had been the Dole revolution. It would likely have occurred by about the same time with or without the S-A war.

A great source on this period is "Pacific Gibraltar"

http://www.pacificgibraltar.com/

It actually shows that Hawaii itself was a point of tension in US-Japanese relations......but in the 1890s rather than 1940s. And once the US made its intention & determination clear, the Japanese were not going to contest them, in Hawaii.

---I am not certain that the power of the China Lobby and US-China trade in general were very intimately tied with US possession of the Philippines in OTL. You could have had fairly similar US sentiments towards China by mid-century, even with no US territorial possessions west of Hawaii.

I think the Spanish Pacific would be a vast oceanic neutral zone if you used butterfly nets to get a similar WWII. Japan would be much less likely to attack the US for strategic reasons, even if there was mutual acrimony over China and sanctions. The big Spanish neutral zone is an advantage for the Japanese against the Allies, even if the US does come in or get dragged in to the Allied side, because it channels the potential allied lines of advance to the southwest Pacific, eastern Indian ocean, or northern Aleutians-Kuriles route.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

So how much of a change would this have on the Coarse of WWII .

Would the Japanese attack the US and would she attack the Philippines ?

Well, firstly, this requires a PoD before 1900. Specifically before 1898.

Secondly, the butterflies would be huge. WWI would be mildly different. WWII would be very different - you're unlikely to get a Nazi Germany in this case.

If the Spanish DID still own the Philippines, Japan might well just ignore them. OTL, they knew that the US had major bases there, and attacking southeast Asia would bring them in eventually, so they had to take on the US as well. Here, they can (likely) ignore the US entirely, and so probably do.

 

[ghappy1000]

Has anyone considered the possibility of an Australian or Indian capture of the Philippines if most of Spanish and world history proceeded as in reality until the Nationalist Victory in the Spanish Civil War and Spain under a more pro Fascist leader than Franco decides on joining the Axis? And, what would be the impacts on the North and East African Campaigns?