WI: Spain reconquers Portugal in the 1660s

[Von Tyrconnell]

In 1659 after the French signed the Treaty of the Pyrenees (in which they agreed to end support for Portugal) the Spanish went on the offensive against Portugal, seeking a decisive victory, but ultimately lost after the English began supporting the Portuguese following the restoration of Charles II (who married Catherine of Braganza).

What if the Spanish had succeded in reconquering Portugal? Presumably Portuguese nationalism would remain a force like Basque and Catalan nationalism. Would Brazil be integrated into the Spanish Empire?

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

I think it depends on how Spain treats them. They lost Portugal the first time because the Spanish Crown tried to cut all of the Portuguese nobles out of power and failed to protect Portuguese colonial interests. If Spain starts treating Portugal as an equal to Aragon and Castile rather than a conquered province then they'll be far more successful in integrating it long-term.

Hopefully Spain learned their lesson on keeping the Portuguese nobility happy but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[SwampTiger]

The problem with Portuguese colonies is the extreme overstretching of naval and military power. Dutch fleets were battering Portuguese forces in Asia, Dutch armies were recently driven from Brazil. Would the Spanish guarantee the colonial defense? Remember, the Dutch absorbed Portuguese colonies while attacking the Spanish crown and replacing the small Portuguese trading colonies with their own. There is a strong chance Holland will take more of the Portuguese and Spanish possessions. Brazilian colonists provided the muscle to drive the Dutch out. Will Brazil seek independence earlier?

 

[Miguel Lanius]

Important reminder that Portugal and Spain were in a royal union. Two kingdoms, one king.
The Spanish messed it up. If they try to annex Portugal, there will be fighting.

There's a good chance that the Braganças pull their stunt two centuries earlier, it was an old idea, in fact.

This would be pretty bad for Spain. The English get Portuguese Brazil and remaining Portuguese Colonies to use as a giant port from which they can raid any Spanish ship over the entire Atlantic.

An independent, exilic Portugal-Brazil would be pretty interesting. For starters, we will probably see loads of wars between it and the Spanish colonies, with the main focus probably being taking over the Plata Region. If the Portuguese go all-out, they have a good chance to win.

This will also mean a stronger Spain, which will likely lead to greater attrition between it and the old English-Portuguese team. Which might turn into a English-Portuguese-Dutch alliance against the Spanish and the French.

A stronger Spain might be good for the French, if it means less English allies in the continent.

Didn't Spain hold Italian territory during this time period?

 

[Dargonaut]

For this to work Spain would have to change its priority from maintaining the Hapsburg hegemony to a larger colonial and naval focus

 

[kasumigenx]

Castile would need to settle its claims in the Philippines, I think Castile would need to swap Northern half of Luzon and Maluku following with the cession of Celebes (Both Celebes and Northern Luzon are rebellious and with Similar history) with the Portuguese for that to happen in this case the Portuguese would now have a base to open up Japan later on.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Castile would need to settle its claims in the Philippines, I think Castile would need to swap Northern half of Luzon and Maluku following with the cession of Celebes (Both Celebes and Northern Luzon are rebellious and with Similar history) with the Portuguese for that to happen in this case the Portuguese would now have a base to open up Japan later on.

Ehh why? Giving up Northern Luzon does not solve everything you know. Why would Portugal agree? They might want the entire philippines, depending on the situation Portugal is in.

Maybe to compensate the losses in India but if Brazil is lost, the Philippines won't help to please the Portuguese.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

In 1659 after the French signed the Treaty of the Pyrenees (in which they agreed to end support for Portugal) the Spanish went on the offensive against Portugal, seeking a decisive victory, but ultimately lost after the English began supporting the Portuguese following the restoration of Charles II (who married Catherine of Braganza).

What if the Spanish had succeded in reconquering Portugal? Presumably Portuguese nationalism would remain a force like Basque and Catalan nationalism. Would Brazil be integrated into the Spanish Empire?

I can't think of the Habsburg Monarchs succeeding. The Bourbons might but that might as well cause even more hostility towards France and Spain as the Bourbon Dynasty would hold a large part of the World.

 

[isabella]

I can't think of the Habsburg Monarchs succeeding. The Bourbons might but that might as well cause even more hostility towards France and Spain as the Bourbon Dynasty would hold a large part of the World.

The fun things is who Charles III of Spain would have an higher claim on the throne of Portugal than the Braganzas (who claimed the throne as heirs of princess Catherine of Guimarães, Duchess of Braganza. Charles III was on his mother’s side the direct heir of Maria of Guimarães, who was the older sister of Catherine)

 

[kasumigenx]

Ehh why? Giving up Northern Luzon does not solve everything you know. Why would Portugal agree? They might want the entire philippines, depending on the situation Portugal is in.

Maybe to compensate the losses in India but if Brazil is lost, the Philippines won't help to please the Portuguese.

The Spanish have given Celebes to the Portuguese and giving Northern Luzon to the Portuguese would have given the Portuguese access to the old Malay-Archipelago/Japan trade and both Northern Luzon and Celebes were unrestive and difficulty to hold, Since the Portuguese accepted Celebes already there is already another precedent for them to gain another part of the Philippines/Spanish East Indies which is similar to that(yes, Celebes was under Spanish East Indies), losing them and gaining Maluku and Spice Islands would be good to the Spanish and also the Spanish would need to give more land to the Portuguese in Brazil.

I think Celebes and Northern Luzon being given to Portugal with Northern Luzon being swapped with Moluccas was the original plan of the Spanish had Catherine of Braganza not married Charles II, since the Spanish had difficulty in holding them during those times.

 

[Phalamus]

An independent, exilic Portugal-Brazil would be pretty interesting. For starters, we will probably see loads of wars between it and the Spanish colonies, with the main focus probably being taking over the Plata Region. If the Portuguese go all-out, they have a good chance to win.

This will also mean a stronger Spain, which will likely lead to greater attrition between it and the old English-Portuguese team. Which might turn into a English-Portuguese-Dutch alliance against the Spanish and the French.

A stronger Spain might be good for the French, if it means less English allies in the continent.

Didn't Spain hold Italian territory during this time period?

Hum... a stronger Spain? The way I see it, in this scenario, the Spanish still lose all of Portugal's main assets (the colonies, the large navy and the rich merchant class) to Portugal-in-exile/Brazil and are left only with a very problematic and not that useful piece of Iberian land. If anything, Spain would be significantly weakened due to having to crush periodic Portuguese uprisings.

In my understading, the main reason why Spain ultimately lost the Restoration war was because, at some point, they just realized they couldn't win in any way that would actually count as a victory. They had opened the genie bottle of Portuguese nationalism, and now there was no way they could have the old Habsburg Empire with the same stability. With other regions under Habsburg rule also rebelling during this period, they just had to let something go, and Portugal was likely the hardest to keep, so it was the logical choice.

I don't think it's possible to get a continuation of the Iberian Union in any form simply by having the 1660 offensive succeed. More things would have to change.