WI: Spain leaves EU in 1993?

No doubt this seems random, and I doubt the Cortes would vote to withdraw, but assuming it did, what would the effects be for both Spain and the EU?

If you're wondering why I'm even asking this question, it's because a player in a geopolitical simulation I'm running wants to know.
 
No doubt this seems random, and I doubt the Cortes would vote to withdraw, but assuming it did, what would the effects be for both Spain and the EU?

If you're wondering why I'm even asking this question, it's because a player in a geopolitical simulation I'm running wants to know.

Why would Spain do this?
Spain didn't seem to have a major Euroskeptic party that could push for that at the time (and even now arguably)...
The economy at the time wasn't in the crapper...
 

morpheus

Banned
What if Spain leaves the EU, and a newly formed Catalonian Republic joins in its place?

Like how Brexit and Scottish Indpendence were voted on within a few days of eachother.
 
Why would Spain do this?
Spain didn't seem to have a major Euroskeptic party that could push for that at the time (and even now arguably)...
The economy at the time wasn't in the crapper...
Yeah it's difficult to envision, but in game the Spanish Prime Minister has decided to try and convince the Cortes to go along with it.
 
First of, Spain and Portugal joined in 1986.
I agree that Spain wouldn't realistically leave. In the 90s and 2000s, Spain has too much to gain from EU Membership and nothing to lose. Freedom of movement, massive infrastructure investments, support for the agricultural sector. Then, Euro-Membership allows for low inflation and low interest rates.

With the burst of Spain's housing bubble and the European debt crisis, however, more than three decades of prosperity stopped. Spain also seems to find it harder to recover than Portugal. The crisis also now highlights the problem that Spain can't devalue its currency any more. Its economy is now forced to work with a currency whose value is a compromise with the more competitive economies (who, like Germany, now work at an advantage). So for Spain's EU Membership continuing to be a success, these issues need to be adressed and at least ameliorated.
 
I'd also say that it's more realistic to delay a Spanish entry into the EC/EU before that.

There are several possible scenarios for this. One would be a political development in Spain roughly matching that of OTL Turkey. The Francist military elites remain a powerful force, always pulling the strings behind the political scene by carrying out several open or de facto coup d'etats, and a ruthless suppression of Basque and Catalan independence movements (with the ETA roughly resembling the PKK here). Spain would remain a candidate for EU membership, but due to political and economic insecurities, they only enter the stage of "privileged partnership".

Another idea is to keep the military regime going after Franco's death, resulting in more violent secessionist movements which eventually lead to the dissolution of Spain altogether. The Basque regions, a Catalonian Union (including the Barcelona and Valencia regions) and Galicia become independent states, thereby leading to a "rump-Spain" consisting of Castile, Andalusia and Extremadura. The new states enter a period of democratic transition and economic development, thus becoming candidates for EU membership and eventual member states (maybe by the time of the 2004 extensions). The development of "rump Spain" is halted by the military - the country eventually also reforms, but it takes a longer period of time.
 
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