WI: Spain Joined the Central Powers in 1914?

If Spain joined the Central Powers...

  • The Central Powers Wins

    Votes: 47 52.8%
  • The Entente Wins

    Votes: 32 36.0%
  • Some other outcome

    Votes: 10 11.2%

  • Total voters
    89
Europe1914.gif


If prime minister Eduardo Dato catapulted Spain into WWI on the side of the Central Powers in 1914, something many of his conservative and Carlist supports wanted him to do, in what way would it have changed the conflict's outcome?
 

Deleted member 1487

If prime minister Eduardo Dato catapulted Spain into WWI on the side of the Central Powers in 1914, something many of his conservative and Carlist supports wanted him to do, in what way would it have changed the conflict's outcome?
It really depends, because there could be interesting knock on effects. If the French are diverting manpower to the Spanish front and away from the German main effort and things go badly for France Italy could well jump in and try and get their slice out of France like in June 1940. If they come in the war in August or even September they could do some damage, but if France manages properly they could survive it and it wouldn't end up being decisive if Britain and Portugal then turn on them; in the long run that helps Germany as it diverts Entente attention, but it hurts Spain very badly. I guess it comes down to when they join in, how quickly they could mobilize, how quickly they could invade France, and how much strength the French use against them and when. We can see then what units would have been drawn off and what effect it would have on OTL actions up to and including the Marne. If that is enough to cause the Entente to stalemate or lose the Marne then it would alter the war.
 
i do not think that spain would add much in battles etc, the most important point would be the influence it would have on other neutrals that are still on the fence like Italy. Even if Italy stays neutral that means the forces needed for the italian in OTL can be used elsewhere. closing of the med for the entente might have interesting butterflies though
Or it might also lead to Romania staying neutral

and there is a mistake on that map, Romania joined the entente in 1916
 
I'm just wondering how Spain would manage to close the Strait of Gibraltar; just wondering. :confused: :confused: :confused:
One micro-dreadnought; seven cruisers of which two dated to before 1900 and four old destroyers...
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm just wondering how Spain would manage to close the Strait of Gibraltar; just wondering. :confused: :confused: :confused:
One micro-dreadnought; seven cruisers of which two dated to before 1900 and four old destroyers...
Ground based coastal artillery that covered the Strait from both sides.
 
I doubt the Spanish army in 1914 was in any shape to take Gibraltar, which would be a thorn in their side. Conversely, however - is there a possibility that Britain could use Gibraltar as staging grounds for an attack on southern Spain and try to force Spain into submission? Or even call in Portugal and go from there? I wonder if Portugal would take Galicia in case of a victory against Spain, or if they would not bother because it's too late to break Spanish nationalism in that region anyway...

Given that Spain has no real fleet it would probably lose the supply lines to its colonies pretty fast, so French colonial troops would just likely march into the Spanish Rif. In the Pyrenees, I doubt the Spanish could launch an offensive, and the French would not care to launch one, so they'd just garrison a minimal amount of troops there. Spain would be a pretty useless ally.

How would closing Gibraltar affect Italy's position? I don't see why it's a serious concern - supplies could just be sent through France, right?
 
I doubt the Spanish army in 1914 was in any shape to take Gibraltar, which would be a thorn in their side. Conversely, however - is there a possibility that Britain could use Gibraltar as staging grounds for an attack on southern Spain and try to force Spain into submission? Or even call in Portugal and go from there? I wonder if Portugal would take Galicia in case of a victory against Spain, or if they would not bother because it's too late to break Spanish nationalism in that region anyway...

Given that Spain has no real fleet it would probably lose the supply lines to its colonies pretty fast, so French colonial troops would just likely march into the Spanish Rif. In the Pyrenees, I doubt the Spanish could launch an offensive, and the French would not care to launch one, so they'd just garrison a minimal amount of troops there. Spain would be a pretty useless ally.

How would closing Gibraltar affect Italy's position? I don't see why it's a serious concern - supplies could just be sent through France, right?

Erm...forget simply not being able to take Gibraltar but ask yourselves how Spain with its third class navy and army of unwilling conscripts officered by dilettantes is going to hold on to the Basque country and Catalonia? All the good troops are in Morocco the wrong side of the Straits and likely to be in pretty dire straits themselves. Not to mention the complete collapse of the Spanish economy as she has decided to make war on her major trading partners for some odd reason.

Of course I suppose the Carlists might hope that they can pin this epic defeat on the Alfonsine Monarchy but there is a chance, just a chance mind you that the King himself might have words to offer on such an insane plan.
 
Erm...forget simply not being able to take Gibraltar but ask yourselves how Spain with its third class navy and army of unwilling conscripts officered by dilettantes is going to hold on to the Basque country and Catalonia? All the good troops are in Morocco the wrong side of the Straits and likely to be in pretty dire straits themselves. Not to mention the complete collapse of the Spanish economy as she has decided to make war on her major trading partners for some odd reason.

Of course I suppose the Carlists might hope that they can pin this epic defeat on the Alfonsine Monarchy but there is a chance, just a chance mind you that the King himself might have words to offer on such an insane plan.

Not altogether odd. Plenty of countries committed effective national suicide over irredentist claims; few did so quite as completely as Spain would if this war turns long (Romania might be close, but has the saving grace of being mostly united nationally), but if the Germans are in Paris by Christmas (something presumably looking likely at the time Spain joins) it's not impossible for the Spanish to retake Gibraltar and maybe get some of Morocco or French Rousillon. This being WW1, that seems unlikely to happen, but Spain doesn't necessarily know.

Of course, Spain will know that joining the CP and then not winning quick will be suicidal, same as Italy did, and neither joined WW1 on the CP side, so it will take the appearance of imminent CP victory to join in.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Some thoughts: -

Not only would the home-based French Army have to maintain some troops on the Spanish frontier, but some portion of the Colonial army would be diverted to meet the "threat" from Spanish Morocco instead of being convoyed to Marseille & Toulon en route to the Western Front

If the war continued beyond the Marne (i.e. the weaker French Army manages to hold on) the British Mediterranean Expeditionary Force would be landing on Spanish not Turkish beaches, if not diverted straight to Southern France.

The Second Spanish Republic is born nearly two decades only.

FWIW I voted for Central Powers victory on basis that the diversion of some Allied resources would lead to an early defeat on the Western Front and perhaps a negotiated peace, but that's not a confident decision, only a coin toss! Plenty of butterflies, especially over the reactions of Portugal, Italy, etc.
 
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If the central powers still loose, would Spain loose Galicia to Portugal and Catalonia and the Basque Country to independence (or France), as well as her possessions in Africa? What would happen to the Balearic and Canary Islands? If Spain wins, would she get Perpignan and the French Basque Country?
 
If the central powers still loose, would Spain loose Galicia to Portugal and Catalonia and the Basque Country to independence (or France), as well as her possessions in Africa? What would happen to the Balearic and Canary Islands? If Spain wins, would she get Perpignan and the French Basque Country?
I'd think Spain's top priority would be Gibraltar (as it had been essentially since the ink dried on the Treaty of Utrecht), followed by some colonial possessions.

An independent Catalonia might be possible, but would mostly depend on what happened in Spain as the war ended; it's more likely if you have a civil war break out.
 
I think the CP would win, not because of Spain's great military campaigns but rather tipping the balance toward the CP so things are easier for Germany. As others have said the likes of France would have to cover the threat from the land and Britain would have to cover the sea approaches and blockade Spain. These forces would have to come from somewhere, maybe from the likes of the Dardanelles or colonial campaigns or most likely a bit from everywhere. With enough ships and troops deployed against the Spanish threat the Germans might increase their successes elsewhere.

What does Portugal do? They've been an English ally for 60 year by this point.
 
Can the Baleares and the Canaries be invaded by the Entente?

As for the Pyrenees, I don't think it will be much crossed by either army, but can using the Baleares as a rear base for the mainland works?

What does Portugal do? They've been an English ally for 60 year by this point.

Would Portugal remain neutral?
 
Alternately. Spain declares for CP. Spain is really bad at war in the 20th century and really ill prepared

http://www.history.army.mil/documents/spanam/ws-sparmy.htm

The article starts with the war of 1898 and goes on after the Great War but should convey to those who read just how lacklustre the quality of the metropolitan Spanish Army was and at this point the army in Morocco was still learning the ropes (though it was vastly better than the army back on the mainland).

So some troops are peeled off to deal with Spain but since all France need do is hold the passes over the Pyrenees this is not enough to seriously effect the course of the Marne battles. Later once the British and French have enough troops to spare they roflstomp Spain together with Portugal, Castile probably still is left with dominion over Andalusia but not much else.

Ottomans hold fire on joining in to watch what happens and come away with a really inflated view of Entente military prowess (it is not actually they are that good just Spain is really that bad in this era, oh and horribly exposed in a strategic sense). The Ottomans stay neutral. Bulgaria flips Entente to loud cries from Vienna of "Hey we have not finished Serbia yet!" Then Romania is like "All your Transylvania belongs to us!" Which ought to lead to a series arse kicking for Romania but AH is a bit tied up Bulgaria is on their side and Germany is still like "I think we might have our sensitive parts caught in a French cheese grater".

Then Italy joins in as well.

There are just some allies you do not want, in OTL Romania was that guy for the Entente in any timeline Spain is that guy for the Central Powers.
 
I think the CP would win, not because of Spain's great military campaigns but rather tipping the balance toward the CP so things are easier for Germany. As others have said the likes of France would have to cover the threat from the land and Britain would have to cover the sea approaches and blockade Spain. These forces would have to come from somewhere, maybe from the likes of the Dardanelles or colonial campaigns or most likely a bit from everywhere. With enough ships and troops deployed against the Spanish threat the Germans might increase their successes elsewhere.

What does Portugal do? They've been an English ally for 60 year by this point.

Lol what?The British didn't treat Portugal as an ally--just twenty-four years ago,the British issued an ultimatum to the Portuguese ordering them to get out of Zimbabwe,Zambia and Malawi.Not saying the Portuguese won't take realist consideration into account,but claiming the Portuguese will help the British by virtue of being an ally for "60 years" is just wrong.
 
Lol what?The British didn't treat Portugal as an ally--just twenty-four years ago,the British issued an ultimatum to the Portuguese ordering them to get out of Zimbabwe,Zambia and Malawi.Not saying the Portuguese won't take realist consideration into account,but claiming the Portuguese will help the British by virtue of being an ally for "60 years" is just wrong.

I meant 600 years.
 
I'd say the Central Powers would win because France would become entangled into two fronts, making the Allied forces in the East of France have less strength to fight the Germans before Battle of the Marne, so they get steamrolled to Paris. Spain would be like a Central Powers Russia, weak and fragile politically, so if the war goes on long enough Spain will collapse to the Allies.
 

Driftless

Donor
If the central powers still loose, would Spain loose Galicia to Portugal and Catalonia and the Basque Country to independence (or France), as well as her possessions in Africa? What would happen to the Balearic and Canary Islands? If Spain wins, would she get Perpignan and the French Basque Country?

IF (and depending on when...) Spain sides with the CP, could the Canaries serve as a German naval base for raiders and U-boats? Perhaps the Balearics as well?

If that were to occur, how would that impact post-war negotiations if the Entente won?
 
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