WI-Spain joined the Axis

OK, I just didn't know enough about WWII naval realities to know whether controlling one side of a nine-mile strait is enough to stop a navy like the RN from getting through it.

I'll take your word for it, but out of curiosity, would it be artillery based on Gibraltar that stops British warships from making through the gauntlet, landplanes bombing them, concentrations of U-boats, or what?

Of course before agreeing to join the Axis ITTL, Franco does also have bases on the other side, but I'd think the Western Allies would make short work of them--if Franco commits before the USA gets involved, the British have to do it alone but I don't doubt they could. At least until Hitler gets control of the Rock and refurbishes it. Then they might have a hard time holding it against a German-backed Spanish assault, if they weren't dug in enough.

The Italian navy is now much less vulnerable, more able to concentrate on the East as you say. But is it enough? The Germans can't add much to in, at least in quantity terms though perhaps they'd weigh more in quality, even if they completely control the Strait--they still have to get their ships down the Atlantic coast right past the RN's home bases and in the range of RAF Coastal Command after all. If by a miracle they could get their entire fleet of surface ships from the Baltic to the Med, how many hulls would that add to what Italy had? How many ships can the Germans complete in Mediterranean shipyards, even if they have Marseilles and every Italian yard as well?

British air access to North Africa would be all bollixed up if they not only can't stop at Gibraltar but need to swing wide around it.

Again--no question Hitler would want it, if only to deny it to Britain. The question is, would Franco be at all wise to let German forces into Spain on any great scale? What could he gain?

And by the way, has anyone done a timeline where Franco joins the Allies instead? If he had done that any time before D-Day it would surely have been much appreciated! Perhaps up until that day, it would not have been clear to him that the Western Allies could keep Spain safe from the furious invasion Hitler would have launched; even if done in the utmost secrecy, how much force could the Anglo-Americans have moved into places just south of the border with France before the Germans would surely get wise to it? I think it's safe to say that western forces could at least have contained the German strike and started to firmly push it back, considering that meanwhile the Soviets would still be pressing on from the east. Of course, joining the Allies would have meant accepting the Russians as one of them, which I guess Franco would dearly have liked to avoid--and did, OTL.

Given that the western allies too would have liked Spain to join their side, Franco was in a good position just sitting things out as he did OTL; if either side got impatient and moved in on their own he could call on the other for help.

If he could have hoped to hold Gibraltar himself, exclusively for Spain, that might have been a big temptation. But he simply faced a choice of which foreign superpower would hold it and that was not nearly so appealing.
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I used the search function :)eek:) and so far have come up with this discussion thread from just a couple months ago that at least considers the possibility of Spain joining the West--only to dismiss it as ASB, largely on the ideological grounds that Franco would never join a pro-Soviet side and that the Soviets and Western powers would not treat with Franco.

I agree with the consensus there that Franco's neutrality OTL was a better move than his joining either side would likely have been.

I am puzzled though, by the consensus that the benefits to the Allies would have been small! Basically the western powers would have enjoyed the advantage of being able to put land forces up against Hitler without running them through the meatgrinder of the Normandy invasion. Spain is worse off until the Allies can get enough force in place to stop the Germans and push them back--and that's Franco's leverage, if he could be convinced by say early 1944 the Allies would win eventually, to ask for large concessions and possibly get them.

I can't see the British handing Gibraltar over to him as a reward, but if they wouldn't consider it perhaps the Americans might urge them to at least try to see their way to doing it.

I am no fan of Franco but I can see him being forgiven a lot and given a lot, if he can help the Allies so substantially!

Oh wait, here's another one, this one all about an Allied Francoist Spain.

This one has Hitler getting impatient and invading Spain in 1940. Back then, the British would not have been able to do a lot for the Spanish; I'm talking about late '43 or early '44 when Britain had recovered and regrouped and huge American forces, including fleets of aircraft, had become available and the problem for them was to get a foothold on the Continent. If Hitler were to try anything so foolish at that late date, Franco would face a choice between capitulating to his demands--or inviting in really substantial Allied forces instead, some of which could move in quite fast by air to suddenly friendly bases. Considering that this thread had some arguing that even against weak Spanish forces with hardly any significant Allied help, the Germans would still take weeks or months to fight their way over the Pyrenees, Hitler would have been quite an idiot to drive a quasi-ally over to the other side at any much later date!

Obviously there might be a lot of these threads--still, none yet consider the advantage of Spain as the springboard of the Allied attack, they are all hung up on how many soldiers Spain might offer and how poorly equipped the army was and so forth.

I don't have all night to page back--does anyone know of a timeline that considers mainly the second-front advantage Spain could offer the Allies mid-war?
 

Cook

Banned
OK, I just didn't know enough about WWII naval realities to know whether controlling one side of a nine-mile strait is enough to stop a navy like the RN from getting through it.

I'll take your word for it, but out of curiosity, would it be artillery based on Gibraltar that stops British warships from making through the gauntlet, landplanes bombing them, concentrations of U-boats, or what?

Put it this way, far later in the war (1943), when things were going overwhelmingly in favour of the Allies in the Mediterranean, during the invasion of Sicily the Straits of Messina became critical, closing them to Axis traffic in both directions was of the highest priority; the Royal Navy was unwilling to approach the straits during daylight.
 
The British would lose all their surface positions almost immediately, due to overwhelming air and artillery being brought against them. Getting equipment down there wouldn't be that terrible. Operation Felix had one panzer corps with their own organic transport (not going to tie up the rails) to defend against counter landings near Seville) and a single reinforced division of 3 regiments that would actually assault the rock... the rails would only be transporting artillery and ammo, and with the core of the German army not doing anything after thrashing france, large amounts of transport assets could be used to facilitate getting the necessary equipment into Spain so they could assault the rock

Taking fortified positions, whilst difficult and likely bloody, would still be well within German tactical abilities. Their 20 and 38 cm mortars would inflict tremendous damage and cave in's when fired near the gallery entrences. The water casemate areas, like you said where vulnerable, once they fail, resistance is a diminishing quality... the only question is how much body count the British inflict before giving up... maybe a couple thousand if they are really determined and the Germans are overly aggressive

The US took such positions from the Japanese, they can fall

@Shevek... it has HUGE implications...with a combination of airpower and artillery they could close the straits, now even though the desert army's transports nearly all took the long safe route around the cape, they are still worse off. Closing the straits allows the Regia marina and all axis airpower to concentrate only on the eastern med, which makes Malta being abandoned or surrendering much more likely since the convoy's can only approach from one known direction. With Malta and Gibraltar gone and all of their airpower concentrated in the eastern med, the axis could send supply ships much farther forward as opposed to road marching all their gear from Tripoli and Bengahzi... you might actually see convoys willing to attempt to go into Mersah Matruh should the opportunity present itself

Ah. That would be the 'large amounts of transport assets' that were in fact so scarce they couldnt move enough coal to the factories that winter, then...?
The mortars would certainly tear up the cachement; not sure how much water youd get from a damaged one. However you are being very optimistice about just caving the galleries in. They are deep in solid rock.
Which is why I think the most likely outcome is a bombardment, followed by a costly and unsuccessful attack, probably repeated a coupld of times, followed by the sensible descision to destroy the cachement and starve the garrison out. After all, they arent going anywhere...
 
Someone might also want to look up British shipping movements to learn just how little British shipping entered the Med from the West prior to the Allies taking French North Africa.
 
To really look at this fully, we have to consider at least three further issues:

1. What happens to the Canary Islands?

2. What happens to Portugal?

3. What happens to the Azores?
 
OK, I just didn't know enough about WWII naval realities to know whether controlling one side of a nine-mile strait is enough to stop a navy like the RN from getting through it.

I'll take your word for it, but out of curiosity, would it be artillery based on Gibraltar that stops British warships from making through the gauntlet, landplanes bombing them, concentrations of U-boats, or what?

Of course before agreeing to join the Axis ITTL, Franco does also have bases on the other side, but I'd think the Western Allies would make short work of them--if Franco commits before the USA gets involved, the British have to do it alone but I don't doubt they could. At least until Hitler gets control of the Rock and refurbishes it. Then they might have a hard time holding it against a German-backed Spanish assault, if they weren't dug in enough.

The Italian navy is now much less vulnerable, more able to concentrate on the East as you say. But is it enough? The Germans can't add much to in, at least in quantity terms though perhaps they'd weigh more in quality, even if they completely control the Strait--they still have to get their ships down the Atlantic coast right past the RN's home bases and in the range of RAF Coastal Command after all. If by a miracle they could get their entire fleet of surface ships from the Baltic to the Med, how many hulls would that add to what Italy had? How many ships can the Germans complete in Mediterranean shipyards, even if they have Marseilles and every Italian yard as well?

British air access to North Africa would be all bollixed up if they not only can't stop at Gibraltar but need to swing wide around it.

Again--no question Hitler would want it, if only to deny it to Britain. The question is, would Franco be at all wise to let German forces into Spain on any great scale? What could he gain?

And by the way, has anyone done a timeline where Franco joins the Allies instead? If he had done that any time before D-Day it would surely have been much appreciated! Perhaps up until that day, it would not have been clear to him that the Western Allies could keep Spain safe from the furious invasion Hitler would have launched; even if done in the utmost secrecy, how much force could the Anglo-Americans have moved into places just south of the border with France before the Germans would surely get wise to it? I think it's safe to say that western forces could at least have contained the German strike and started to firmly push it back, considering that meanwhile the Soviets would still be pressing on from the east. Of course, joining the Allies would have meant accepting the Russians as one of them, which I guess Franco would dearly have liked to avoid--and did, OTL.

Given that the western allies too would have liked Spain to join their side, Franco was in a good position just sitting things out as he did OTL; if either side got impatient and moved in on their own he could call on the other for help.

If he could have hoped to hold Gibraltar himself, exclusively for Spain, that might have been a big temptation. But he simply faced a choice of which foreign superpower would hold it and that was not nearly so appealing.
-----
I used the search function :)eek:) and so far have come up with this discussion thread from just a couple months ago that at least considers the possibility of Spain joining the West--only to dismiss it as ASB, largely on the ideological grounds that Franco would never join a pro-Soviet side and that the Soviets and Western powers would not treat with Franco.

I agree with the consensus there that Franco's neutrality OTL was a better move than his joining either side would likely have been.

I am puzzled though, by the consensus that the benefits to the Allies would have been small! Basically the western powers would have enjoyed the advantage of being able to put land forces up against Hitler without running them through the meatgrinder of the Normandy invasion. Spain is worse off until the Allies can get enough force in place to stop the Germans and push them back--and that's Franco's leverage, if he could be convinced by say early 1944 the Allies would win eventually, to ask for large concessions and possibly get them.

I can't see the British handing Gibraltar over to him as a reward, but if they wouldn't consider it perhaps the Americans might urge them to at least try to see their way to doing it.

I am no fan of Franco but I can see him being forgiven a lot and given a lot, if he can help the Allies so substantially!

Oh wait, here's another one, this one all about an Allied Francoist Spain.

This one has Hitler getting impatient and invading Spain in 1940. Back then, the British would not have been able to do a lot for the Spanish; I'm talking about late '43 or early '44 when Britain had recovered and regrouped and huge American forces, including fleets of aircraft, had become available and the problem for them was to get a foothold on the Continent. If Hitler were to try anything so foolish at that late date, Franco would face a choice between capitulating to his demands--or inviting in really substantial Allied forces instead, some of which could move in quite fast by air to suddenly friendly bases. Considering that this thread had some arguing that even against weak Spanish forces with hardly any significant Allied help, the Germans would still take weeks or months to fight their way over the Pyrenees, Hitler would have been quite an idiot to drive a quasi-ally over to the other side at any much later date!

Obviously there might be a lot of these threads--still, none yet consider the advantage of Spain as the springboard of the Allied attack, they are all hung up on how many soldiers Spain might offer and how poorly equipped the army was and so forth.

I don't have all night to page back--does anyone know of a timeline that considers mainly the second-front advantage Spain could offer the Allies mid-war?


This TL, which I co-authored with TheRed has Spain come in on the side of the allies... not that it does them much good failure before moscow
 
To really look at this fully, we have to consider at least three further issues:

1. What happens to the Canary Islands?

2. What happens to Portugal?

3. What happens to the Azores?

It is documented that Franco asked for the Canary Islands and highly speculated that he wanted permission and assistance taking Portugal.

However, it is my belief that Franco was making unreasonable requests in an effort to stay out of the war. If he was serious about joining I believe that his requests would have been more realistic; Spain would annex some French African territories but share the income with Germany.
 
Irrelevant, especially with this thread assumptions but comes to my mind.

Meeting of Franco and Hitler at Hendaye:

Admiral Canaris, infiltrated in Hitler's spy network, descendant of Sephardim expelled from Spain, advised Franco: "You tell amen to everything, but ask what he has not. Ie coastal guns to defend from the British, food and oil. As he is very proud, he will not tell you that he don´t have it, but he will not forced us into war. "

(that´s from Antonio Hortelano´s memories (allegedly spy). Sorry for the translation)
 
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