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In 1574, a Chinese pirate named Lin Feng launched a daring surprise raid on Manila, catching the Spanish completely unawares, and nearly captured the city with his flotilla of heavily armed ships. (This is a potential POD in its own right, but not the one I want to explore here).

The incident prompted a rapprochement between the Spanish and the Ming, who agreed to cooperate in order to capture Lin Feng. The naval commander of Fujian Province offered Spain the city of Xiamen (then known as Amoy to Westerners), on the Strait of Formosa, if its forces caught him first. But since Lin evaded capture for the rest of his life, the deal never had to be honored.

The POD, therefore, is that within two years, the Spanish get lucky and catch Lin, whom they hand to the Chinese for execution. By that point, China and Spain were trading partners, the ban on commerce with foreigners having been lifted in 1567 in order to take advantage of imports from the Americas by way of the Philippines. So let's assume the Chinese make good on their word and give Xiamen to the Spanish. What would be the consequences of Spain having its own analog to Portuguese Macau, and a foothold on the Chinese mainland?

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