WI- Spain doesn't get invaded in the Napoleonic wars

What if Napoleon never invade Spain? Moreover than making his efforts in the east stronger, this might lead to the Spanish Empire managing to keep their American Empire (or at least parts of it).

I don't believe that Napoleon would be able to get peace and leave his conquests (or his reign)m but things would get really interesting, won't they?
 
He probably lasts longer.

When he was fighting the crucial 1813 campaign, there were 200,000 troops tied up in Spain, who might have turned the tide. It's probably only a reprieve, but I could see the war continuing a couple more years at any rate.
 

Thande

Donor
If Napoleon didn't invade Spain, that implies Spain remains aligned with France, so most probably Britain will engage in separating Spanish America from Spain (whether this be via backing local revolutionaries to create British-aligned independent states or straightforward conquest to create new British colonies, or a mixture of the two). Britain might be able to get help from the USA in this endeavour, depending on who's in the White House at the time.
 
What if Napoleon never invade Spain? Moreover than making his efforts in the east stronger, this might lead to the Spanish Empire managing to keep their American Empire (or at least parts of it).

I don't believe that Napoleon would be able to get peace and leave his conquests (or his reign)m but things would get really interesting, won't they?

No invasion of Spain butterflied away for severals years the war of 1809 with Austria as the Austrians decided to attack France because of the french difficulties in Spain.

Archduke Charles opinion was to wait severals years to continue the reforms of the army and the government.

Without the war of 1809, the Duchy of Warsaw is not increased by the former austrians provinces and cannot become a difficulty in the franco-russian relations...

The difficulties for Napoleon to maintain Pax Napoleonus is when Austria and Prussia will finished their militaries reforms and Russia will be fed up with Continental blocus.

I had think about this POD and my conclusion was a possibility of war in 1812/1813/1814 with the three eastern eagles (Austria, Prussia and Russia) together against Napoleon. And an english stab in the back somewhere in Belgium or the Netherlands as the Walcheren expedition...
 

Thande

Donor
I had think about this POD and my conclusion was a possibility of war in 1812/1813/1814 with the three eastern eagles (Austria, Prussia and Russia) together against Napoleon. And an english stab in the back somewhere in Belgium or the Netherlands as the Walcheren expedition...

That seems reasonable. I suspect the British contribution would probably be buggered up however, like all our land operations in the early years of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars--without the experience of operating in Spain the army will still be largely untried and untested compared to their French opponents or the eastern alliance. Unless the potential operations in Spanish America I mentioned can help a bit, perhaps...
 
If Napoleon didn't invade Spain, that implies Spain remains aligned with France, so most probably Britain will engage in separating Spanish America from Spain (whether this be via backing local revolutionaries to create British-aligned independent states or straightforward conquest to create new British colonies, or a mixture of the two). Britain might be able to get help from the USA in this endeavour, depending on who's in the White House at the time.

I think the British actions against spanish colonies will only increased american hostility against the UK...

If there is no war in Spain, no war in 1809, no war in Russia in 1812, the British will still be the only to fight against Napoleon and have a more naval policy so more US ships to be harassed and more US sailors to be force conscripted in the RN...
 

Thande

Donor
I think the British actions against spanish colonies will only increased american hostility against the UK...

If there is no war in Spain, no war in 1809, no war in Russia in 1812, the British will still be the only to fight against Napoleon and have a more naval policy so more US ships to be harassed and more US sailors to be force conscripted in the RN...
That could happen, but the Americans could also have a President (he'd probably have to be a Federalist) who negotiates a deal to normalise relations and stop the conscription crisis, reasoning that this is an opportunity for the US to take over places like Florida. Of course the Americans could try doing both, being hostile to Britain yet also taking advantage of Britain's moves to take over bits of Spanish America.
 
That seems reasonable. I suspect the British contribution would probably be buggered up however, like all our land operations in the early years of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars--without the experience of operating in Spain the army will still be largely untried and untested compared to their French opponents or the eastern alliance. Unless the potential operations in Spanish America I mentioned can help a bit, perhaps...
The potential operations in Spanish America would be on such a different scale (longer distances, but smaller armies) that I can't imagine how it would help in Europe.
 
That could happen, but the Americans could also have a President (he'd probably have to be a Federalist) who negotiates a deal to normalise relations and stop the conscription crisis, reasoning that this is an opportunity for the US to take over places like Florida. Of course the Americans could try doing both, being hostile to Britain yet also taking advantage of Britain's moves to take over bits of Spanish America.

With the Louisiana purchase, the Americans had plenty of available territory for expansion. The only threat against them are the Indians and they are backed, armed and financed by the British from Canada.

If the Spanish are really threatened in their colonial possessions by the British, they can go with Napoleon way and sell Florida severals years earlier to the USA.

Spanish America is still to far from the USA to be the target of an american flibusteering operation, Indians tribes are still a formidable force on the east bank of the Mississippi...
 
Well for one, the reputations of Massena, Ney, and that other Marshal who's name escapes me at the moment will not become tarnished. Napoleon's Empire stands very unbloodied as they would not lost thousands of troops in the Peninsula, and his image of invincibility lasts just a while longer, if it would even matter at all.

Forgive me for digressing, but another potential Napoleonic Spain WI that I had in mind that might negate the War there is Napoleon putting Murat on the throne after King Charles abdicated like Murat thought he would, instead of later replacing Ferdinand with his incompetent brother Joseph. Say what you will of Murat, but he would have garnered higher support and would have been a better King of Spain then Joseph.
 
I think people are really, really being unfair to Napoleon here. The consensus in a lot of the posts is that this just affects the timing of Napoleon's fall. Err, why?

A few hundred thousand troops aren't occupying Spain, with a few tens of thousands fewer deaths. Latin America isn't opened to Britain; smuggling continues, but British efforts to snaffle colonies: a) continues to alienate opinion in Europe, and angers Spain and b) fails spectacularly. Even in OTL Luddism was a major problem by 1811. In an ATL with smaller markets overseas, and no signs of a way to chip at Napoleon on the continent?

Why would Austria be going to war again in a few years? In OTL Austria was pushed towards war out of a fear that they were going to be replaced next. But that's not present here.
 
I think people are really, really being unfair to Napoleon here. The consensus in a lot of the posts is that this just affects the timing of Napoleon's fall. Err, why?

I don't concluded about a Napoleon fall.

I think that during the Revolutionnary and Imperial times, Austria was a kind of Phoenix, always beaten, defeated, humiliated and reduced in size but always able to rise from ashes and being able to continue the fight.

So, when Austria, Prussia and Russia will be able to gather all their forces after austrian and prussian reorganisation ,they will become a worthy foe for an Imperial France invincible from 1807...

A few hundred thousand troops aren't occupying Spain, with a few tens of thousands fewer deaths. Latin America isn't opened to Britain; smuggling continues, but British efforts to snaffle colonies: a) continues to alienate opinion in Europe, and angers Spain and b) fails spectacularly. Even in OTL Luddism was a major problem by 1811. In an ATL with smaller markets overseas, and no signs of a way to chip at Napoleon on the continent?

Why would Austria be going to war again in a few years? In OTL Austria was pushed towards war out of a fear that they were going to be replaced next. But that's not present here.

If Napoleon will be able to defeat this austro-prusso-russian coalition, the UK will give up.
 
I think people are really, really being unfair to Napoleon here. The consensus in a lot of the posts is that this just affects the timing of Napoleon's fall. Err, why?

A Napoleon who knows his limits and when to stop is certainly capable of avoiding catastrophe. The problem is that such a person wouldn't be Napoleon - it's always likely that he's going to overreach himself at some point and bring it all crashing down. Napoleon himself predicted after Austerlitz that he had six good years left in him - six years later of course he was planning the Russian campaign...

A few hundred thousand troops aren't occupying Spain, with a few tens of thousands fewer deaths. Latin America isn't opened to Britain; smuggling continues, but British efforts to snaffle colonies: a) continues to alienate opinion in Europe, and angers Spain and b) fails spectacularly.

a) Why would anybody outside Spain give a damn? And (b) does not follow. Britain wasn't just trying to steal colonies but also sponsor independence movements. With sufficient backing there would be some successes.

Even in OTL Luddism was a major problem by 1811. In an ATL with smaller markets overseas, and no signs of a way to chip at Napoleon on the continent?

Actually, the largest overseas market was almost certainly continental Europe - French customs efforts to prevent smuggling were laughably ineffective, and mainly resulted in inflicting far more economic pain on France and her allies than on Britain. That's when the French state itself didn't connive in breaking the blockade - France regularly sold grain to Britain, and the Grande Armee marched to Moscow wearing British boots and greatcoats.

Why would Austria be going to war again in a few years? In OTL Austria was pushed towards war out of a fear that they were going to be replaced next. But that's not present here.

Agreed. The next big crisis point will come when Alexander feels Russia is suffering too much for not enough gain from the blockade and pulls out. A Napoleon who is sensible enough to stay out of Spain may also be sensible enough to turn a blind eye to this as well, in which case the war probably peters out over a few years and Napoleon gets to reign for the rest of his natural life. If not however, I suspect the bootmakers of Nottingham will be getting some big new contracts...
 
Napoleon defeated this alliace a few times, and I didn't see the UK giving up that much...

Prussia stayed out of the Revolutionnary wars from Valmy in 1792 until its disaster of 1806. And it wait until 1813 to engage again French forces...

Russia was a relunctant austrian ally, when for example, Russia withdrawn from Italy and Switzerland in 1800, or when Russia don't help Austria in 1809...

In 1800, France fought against Austria and some minors germans states.

In 1805, France fought against Austria and Russia.

In 1806, France crushed Prussia and Saxony.

In 1807, France defeated Russia and what left of Prussia armies.

In 1809, France defeated Austria.

In my opinion, in 1812-1813, an alliance of a reformed Austria and Prussia and of all of Russia could be a worthy opponent to a Grand Armée not decimated by the Spanish Campaign or the war of 1809.

I don't think Napoleon will left Prussia or Austria being able to rise again and they will lost a lot of territories to a bigger Duchy of Warsaw or even an independant Hungary or Croatia...
 
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