WI: Spain and France had united?

In what ways could this have happened such as alternate events in war of Spanish succession or other pod?

What would be the ramifications of your scenarios?

Would a united Spain and France be the greatest European power for long? Would such a union have lasted? Nature of the union?
 
Best bet for that would be Spanish/French victory in the War of Spanish Succession. Both countries would end up under Burbons, continent would be politically changed forever and you would probably see long term alliances that were deemed impossible until that moment aimed exclusively at containing the new super state. Internal structure of the state would have to be divided in a very fair way so no one could feel deprived of something, be that Madrid or Paris.
 
You'd need brilliant leaders in nearly every single generation. Something damn hard to keep up even for just 2 generations, but you know Prussia managed for 2 generations, and after that the weight of Nationalism and Germany managed to turn the area into a truly defined and somewhat unified nation.

Anyway two brilliant, or atleast not stupid, generations of leaders and some lucky breaks and you will see the worlds first true super power quite a bit earlier.

However, as soon as the good rulers run out expect the wolves to pounce upon it as they would upon a dying moose the size of a small mountain.

Also expect several European wars each of them centered around bringing this giant to the ground with huge systems of alliances...

You know I read a certain written work once that speculated that at the birth at the first mega country more would inevitably follow, and this did lead towards a trend of fewer nations total, and those that did exist were somewhat larger.

Some Examples:
Germany-Poland
A Nordic State
Great Britain and Ireland actually seeing the need to stick together
Austria Hungary lasting quite a while longer

If this occurs expect Italy to either unify earlier than OTL as a result of more pressure on being larger and more unified or much later than OTL as each of the new Super Nations takes their slice of Italy for their own already larger than OTL Nation.
 
Best bet for that would be Spanish/French victory in the War of Spanish Succession. Both countries would end up under Burbons, continent would be politically changed forever and you would probably see long term alliances that were deemed impossible until that moment aimed exclusively at containing the new super state. Internal structure of the state would have to be divided in a very fair way so no one could feel deprived of something, be that Madrid or Paris.

That would be one very likely starting point, I agree, and Also that new alliances would be likely in the rest of western europe. As for internal structure I assumed a general empowerment of Paris over Madrid, but i also see ways that a more nuanced balance is certainly possible.

You'd need brilliant leaders in nearly every single generation. Something damn hard to keep up even for just 2 generations, but you know Prussia managed for 2 generations, and after that the weight of Nationalism and Germany managed to turn the area into a truly defined and somewhat unified nation.

Anyway two brilliant, or atleast not stupid, generations of leaders and some lucky breaks and you will see the worlds first true super power quite a bit earlier.

However, as soon as the good rulers run out expect the wolves to pounce upon it as they would upon a dying moose the size of a small mountain.

Also expect several European wars each of them centered around bringing this giant to the ground with huge systems of alliances...

You know I read a certain written work once that speculated that at the birth at the first mega country more would inevitably follow, and this did lead towards a trend of fewer nations total, and those that did exist were somewhat larger.

Some Examples:
Germany-Poland
A Nordic State
Great Britain and Ireland actually seeing the need to stick together
Austria Hungary lasting quite a while longer

If this occurs expect Italy to either unify earlier than OTL as a result of more pressure on being larger and more unified or much later than OTL as each of the new Super Nations takes their slice of Italy for their own already larger than OTL Nation.

I think good leAdership helps a stAte, and so do its institutions and system of succession.
Very insightful on the likely emergence of a trend towards consolidation, it makes a lot of sense.


I was also thinking that if a Franco-Hispanic superstate continued with Napoleon, the balance of power may have been steadier and status quo, rather than an emerging France, so at the French revolution there might be less concern to the other powers or else there might be a different alliance or result in the napoleonic wars. Perhaps this would affect the new world with no Louisiana purchase and no start of independence under Napoleon because again no change in status quo of Franco-Hispanic state, so no impetus to rebel against Napoleon as in otl when France invaded Spain.

Also, French/Indian wars and British/French rivalry would be affected in so many ways.
 
But if France and Spain did unite, would Philippe/Felipe eventually end up like Karl V and split his dominions up among his sons should ruling his domains become unmanagable? (Either externally, or internally)
 
I always thought that if the Bourbon monarchies managed to survive throughout the revolutionary period, Spain would increasingly come under French domination. Particularly if there was a war where France helped her Spanish ally invade Portugal. It was the Napoleonic deposition of the Spanish King and outright invasion that stoked Spanish nationalism: a more gradual process could do it.
 
A bit of a strech however what if Spain and France unitied under Philip II of Spain after the death of Henry III.

In OTL Henry IV came to the throne of France but as a reformed Protestant was never trusted by the Catholics. It would take a little shuffling but Philip could take the French throne.

This would then leave the richest country (Spain) ruling the country with the largest population (25% of Europes population at the time was French).

The fate of the protestant states of Europe would look very precarious, particurly England and the Netherlands.
 
Best bet for that would be Spanish/French victory in the War of Spanish Succession. Both countries would end up under Burbons, continent would be politically changed forever and you would probably see long term alliances that were deemed impossible until that moment aimed exclusively at containing the new super state.

Both countries did end up under the Bourbons and the result was 20 years of improbable alliances arising from Philip V's ambition to regain Spain's Italian possessions and the threat that he would obtain the French throne. Not only was there nothing like a Franco-Spanish union, relations between the 2 countries were as bad as they had been when they were ruled by different dynasties.

The best bet would be for Louis XV to die before he has a chance to produce a male heir, and in OTL it took 14 years between his assumption of the throne (at the age of 5) and the birth of his first son. The problem is that this would result in a civil war between the supporters of Philip V of Spain and those of Philip of Orleans, which is likely to spiral into a European war if it looks as if the former is winning.

An alternate best bet would be for the War of the Spanish Succession to end with an early Bourbon victory, as in this unfinished TL of mine that I'm shamelessly plugging, and then for a personal union to happen later on, though the conditions for one are not very good given the unlikely course of events that in OTL made a 5-year-old boy King of France in 1715.

Scenario 1 (Louis XIV dies) sets up just the right conditions for Philip V to claim the French throne, but it's unlikely that he can resist foreign opposition to his claim. Scenario 2 (Louis XV wins) makes the Bourbons strong enough to resist foreign opposition to a personal union, but you'd have to walk over a lot of dead Bourbons bodies to bring about that personal union to begin with.

You'd need brilliant leaders in nearly every single generation. Something damn hard to keep up even for just 2 generations, but you know Prussia managed for 2 generations, and after that the weight of Nationalism and Germany managed to turn the area into a truly defined and somewhat unified nation.

No you don't. England and Scotland, Poland and Lithuania, Brandenburg and Prussia, Denmark and Norway, hell, even Castile and Aragon. It is nowhere written that a Franco-Spanish union would break apart just like that.

You know I read a certain written work once that speculated that at the birth at the first mega country more would inevitably follow, and this did lead towards a trend of fewer nations total, and those that did exist were somewhat larger.

It's a personal union, it's not a trend or something you can reliably plan ahead for.

If this occurs expect Italy to either unify earlier than OTL as a result of more pressure on being larger and more unified or much later than OTL as each of the new Super Nations takes their slice of Italy for their own already larger than OTL Nation.

You've no idea what you're talking about.
 
You've no idea what you're talking about.

I said I read it not that I agreed with it... there's a definite difference between spouting random Ideas that I've come around and actual positions that I'm willing to defend...


Position A) Trend towards larger nations
Random ideas that I've collected from various thoughts and occaisional readings. You are right, and if it came down to it, I wouldn't stake very much at all on that statement.

Position B) That this union would need some form of adequate leadership for atleast the first two generations
I still believe that a union between Spain and France would be far too much of a perceived threat for many of Europe's other powers to allow the birth and growth of something like that to begin, precisely one of the reasons for the War of Spanish Succesion, and without atleast adequate leadership for the first couple of leaders this union is to be teared apart either just like in OTL, or if not after a devastating war and a normal recovery period, 15-30 years afterward.

...Yeah, That Italy bit = Random Idea elaborated into a completely nonsesical area,
terribly sorry about that.
 
Position B) That this union would need some form of adequate leadership for atleast the first two generations
I still believe that a union between Spain and France would be far too much of a perceived threat for many of Europe's other powers to allow the birth and growth of something like that to begin, precisely one of the reasons for the War of Spanish Succesion, and without atleast adequate leadership for the first couple of leaders this union is to be teared apart either just like in OTL, or if not after a devastating war and a normal recovery period, 15-30 years afterward.

What in the world are you talking about? There was no such union in OTL.

Of course there would be foreign opposition to it, but that doesn't in itself represent a centrifugal force and I've already outlined a scenario in which it could overcome such opposition. And my TL actually favors a balance of power - add the Southern Netherlands to the Bourbon domains, put the Stuarts back on the English throne, turn the Great Northern War into a quagmire, and there'll be no one around to challenge a Franco-Spanish union for a long time. You just have to make the union happen.
 
What in the world are you talking about? There was no such union in OTL.

Of course there would be foreign opposition to it, but that doesn't in itself represent a centrifugal force and I've already outlined a scenario in which it could overcome such opposition. And my TL actually favors a balance of power - add the Southern Netherlands to the Bourbon domains, put the Stuarts back on the English throne, turn the Great Northern War into a quagmire, and there'll be no one around to challenge a Franco-Spanish union for a long time. You just have to make the union happen.

I was refering to this:

"The War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) was fought among several European powers, including a divided Spain, over the possible unification of the Kingdoms of Spain and France under one Bourbon monarch."

In the union bit, not that such a union that actually existed.

and Exactly the birth period of a nation or union is the time at which every thing hinges... You have outlined a possible scenario that I agree with. However, I was not refering to it in my earlier statements.
 
No you don't. England and Scotland, Poland and Lithuania, Brandenburg and Prussia, Denmark and Norway, hell, even Castile and Aragon. It is nowhere written that a Franco-Spanish union would break apart just like that.

All of which have dialects that are much closer to each other than the range of French and Spanish. Except for Poland and Lithuania which are . . . now separate countries.

Also, size matters. The larger the conjoined entities and the more developed their separate cultures, histories, and institutions, the more difficult the merger.

Also, the Pyrenees.
 
All of which have dialects that are much closer to each other than the range of French and Spanish.

Irrelevant in an age before nationalism.

Except for Poland and Lithuania which are . . . now separate countries.

Which has... absolutely nothing to do with their union not being stable, as you ought to know.

Also, size matters. The larger the conjoined entities and the more developed their separate cultures, histories, and institutions, the more difficult the merger.

England and Scotland didn't have too much in common. And it took 104 years for their personal union to turn into a political one. To speak of a merger is to move the goalposts. You'd continue to have 2 separate countries with 2 separate yada yada yadas, just with the same inbred tosser in charge of both.

Also, the Pyrenees.

Brandenburg and Ducal Prussia weren't even next to each other. And the Pyrenees weren't some impassable barrier, as the Catalans and Basques can tell you.
 
Such an state will became a "Super France" with a lot of insurgency in "the southern provinces".

Difference between French and Spanish its not so much that it would be an impediment.

Would the new king try to choose a new capital to evade both courts? If he does that I suspect Lyon, Toulouse or Marseilles in France or Bilbao, Zaragoza or Barcelona in Spain would be the most probable.

And if the butterflies do not stop a revolution things can get REALLY interesting ...
 
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