redlightning
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What if instead of Operation Barbarossa being put into place, the Soviet Union invades Germany first in a surprise attack?
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WI: Soviets Invade Germany in 1941
- Thread starter redlightning
- Start date
western leaders do the happy dance as they watch the two slug it out. Germany is in trouble, no matter what, but the soviets would be hitting a Germany with lots of troops already facing them, so if it was an honest to goodness complete surprise then that would be quite interesting, I think the Germans had the superior forces at least in 41.
would be an interesting scenario.
would be an interesting scenario.
This is my point of departure. You will find plans and agitation for a first blow on the Soviet side obviously, they would be remiss to have not had plans for it. If you look back to the war between Poland and the USSR in 1920, then the Winter War, and how Stalin was eager to carve up Poland and essentially get back the lost Empire then a case can be made that war was inevitable. That is not to be construed as an apology for Hitler but I think it is a more sober assessment of the way both Stalin and Hitler were in a race for a war of European conquest.
That is the premise for Victor Suvorov's book Icebreaker. He postulates that Stalin in fact planned his offensive for July, Barbarossa launches in June, the two sides were mere weeks apart. Using that notion I have looked at the war forward from this point and wondered.
The gravest danger to Germany was the oil of Romania and according to Suvorov the plan was to take that target from the beginning. The other problem is Hitler. In my musings I have him killed out the outset and the nascent coup plotters around the Army gain the upper hand. Perhaps it is complete fantasy but it allows for an end to the Nazis but not a defeated Germany so I can ponder a three way Cold War. My biggest question is whether Japan goes to war with a USSR here or the USA or not at all. That seems to drive how far afield the post war world gets.
That is the premise for Victor Suvorov's book Icebreaker. He postulates that Stalin in fact planned his offensive for July, Barbarossa launches in June, the two sides were mere weeks apart. Using that notion I have looked at the war forward from this point and wondered.
The gravest danger to Germany was the oil of Romania and according to Suvorov the plan was to take that target from the beginning. The other problem is Hitler. In my musings I have him killed out the outset and the nascent coup plotters around the Army gain the upper hand. Perhaps it is complete fantasy but it allows for an end to the Nazis but not a defeated Germany so I can ponder a three way Cold War. My biggest question is whether Japan goes to war with a USSR here or the USA or not at all. That seems to drive how far afield the post war world gets.
Deleted member 1487
So are the Germans not planning on attacking or the Soviets beat them to the punch? If Barbarossa is still being set up then the Soviets just made the worst possible decision and might well just done even worse than they did IOTL on the defensive. They've put their best troops into the worst possible position and they will be slaughtered.
https://www.amazon.com/Stumbling-Colossus-World-Modern-Studies/dp/0700608796?ie=UTF8&keywords=stumbling colossus&qid=1451926577&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1
The Soviet military was not capable of offensive action in Summer 1941. Its armor park was effectively falling apart just fighting defensively IOTL against the German invasion, moving across the border in an attack would see the Mechanized Corps grind to a halt and be extremely vulnerable to an Axis riposte. All you've done is give the Axis an excellent propaganda coup to use against the Soviets and lowered Soviet morale from forcing them to fight an offensive war of aggression instead of a war of national defense against an invader.
The worst problem is that the Luftwaffe will have a field day against strung out columns of Soviet troops, while being able to rely on their radar in the East to intercept Soviet aircraft moving over the border.
An important point though is when the attack comes. In May it was too wet, but the Germans are in the Balkans still, so that would be a mess all around; the Germans can't counterattack well due to the Balkan campaign, while the Soviets will have serious problems with the late thaw. In June the Germans are getting ready for Barbarossa, so will be pretty much done with the Balkans and getting back in place, while the ground is drying up. So the Soviets won't have weather issues, but will still have their power projection problems AND a German force capable of rapid reaction.
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Stalin was very cautious, and knew the army wasn't ready for a fight. Honestly, the only way I see this happening is if he becomes absolutely, 100% convinced that an attack by Hitler is imminent (and this isn't actually an elaborate British ploy to get the USSR fighting Churchill's war for him) AND he becomes convinced that a surprise attack, and not defense in depth, is the best way to go about it.
As to what happens? On the one hand, Soviet forces would be on a war footing instead of being caught with their pants down. OTOH, the first Soviet echelon would be deployed so far forward that it risks getting encircled everywhere (including the south) pretty darn fast.
If this were a computer game, I would rate it as a slight net positive for the Soviets. HOWEVER, the biggest problem in the real world for them would be the fact that a lot of the patriotic 'defense of the motherland' propaganda would have much less of an effect. Probably not enough to cost them the war, but still...
As to what happens? On the one hand, Soviet forces would be on a war footing instead of being caught with their pants down. OTOH, the first Soviet echelon would be deployed so far forward that it risks getting encircled everywhere (including the south) pretty darn fast.
If this were a computer game, I would rate it as a slight net positive for the Soviets. HOWEVER, the biggest problem in the real world for them would be the fact that a lot of the patriotic 'defense of the motherland' propaganda would have much less of an effect. Probably not enough to cost them the war, but still...
Lend Lease probably doesn't arrive for the Soviet's in the Fall and thus I doubt Germany declares war after Pearl Harbor. It probably delays US entry into the war in Europe until mid 1942 at least.
Why not? If Stalin does decide to attack Hitler and actually goes through with it, he would also surely formalize an alliance with Churchill
LL from America the country that was still saying it was neutral as of mid 1941.
The Germans fully expected America to support the British Empire as they did in years before, but extending American LL to the Soviet Union in the Fall of 1941 was a surprise to them.
If Stalin struck first FDR would have had trouble expanding LL to the USSR for at least a year or until Germany declared war.
Why? Lend-Lease would have passed Congress long before, and it "permitted him to "sell, transfer title to, exchange, lease, lend, or otherwise dispose of, to any such government [whose defense the President deems vital to the defense of the United States] any defense article.""
Also,
Nope, it had to be approved by Congress to go to the USSR which took until the Fall OTL.
OK.
But still, ITTL, Stalin actively joined in the fight against Hitler instead of being forced into it. If anything, earlier LL is likelier
EDIT: LL to the Soviets was also in no way decisive early, nor was it the major factor in Hitler's decision to DOW the US
Deleted member 1487
Given that the attitude among Congress was to help the losing side in 1941 and to let the two kill each other, if the Soviets attacked Congress wouldn't support the Soviets until it was clear they were losing badly and needed help. Instead Congress would just have them pay for their purchasing like they did IOTL until October.
USSR loses World War II. The Red Army would throw itself into a maneuver battle against a peer+ opponent that the vast majority of the former is ill-prepared to fight. They'd get badly torn up, and when the Germans counter-invade the Soviets wouldn't have the reserves that historically halted the German drive at the most critical moment.
Plus depending on the state of the Tripartite Alliance a Soviet attack would by treaty bring Japan into the war.
Plus depending on the state of the Tripartite Alliance a Soviet attack would by treaty bring Japan into the war.
What I've heard about Suvorov's work is that while it makes some interesting observations, it fails to consider larger problems (such as logistics) and also the author is very sensationalist in his writing which has caused academics to discount pretty much everything he said. While not being familiar with all the details, I would wager that whatever the quality of the Red Army at the time, catching the Germans off-guard would have been a massive blow to them, from which they would not be able to gain initiative. Nevertheless, the Soviets would'nt be able to roll into Germany or across the Carpathian mountains with anywhere near the ease that Suvorov advertises. Had Stalin attacked in '41 the results would have probably just been a massive version of the WW1 Western Front. Germans lose 1 million+ men, Soviets several times that. War might be resolved in a year or two once it becomes clear that nobody stands to gain anything. Both Stalin and Hitler looks like retards. WW2 in the west continues unless the Allies decide that they want to make peace rather than have to face Nazi Europe on a single front.
Actually considering that both the USSR and Reich could survive in relatively stable shape, this would be a rather terrifying and fascinating TL.
Deleted member 1487
I forgot about this. Yeah that would be a make or break for the alliance. If the Japanese opted not to honor the pact then Germany may well opt out of DoWing the US in December after publicly calling off the alliance when Japan refuses to declare war on the Soviets. Of course the Japanese might well just declare war and blockade Vladivostok and then do nothing.
Yes, if Japan doesn't declare war after the USSR attacks the pact is effectively dead as far as the Germans will be concerned.
Deleted member 1487
The better question probably is whether the US cares in the end once they are at war with Japan if the Nazi-Japanese alliance is dead given that Britain and the US will be cobelligerents and FDR wanted Germany first. Once at war it may be impossible to stop him finding a way to provoke war.
But that is probably a minor point compared to what it means for the war in the East in 1941 to have the Soviets attack and fall victim to the premier maneuver warfare military on the planet.
Oh I think FDR would still find a way in, but likely not before Midway and the WH and public feels their Western flank is secure.