Otl, to say communism was a big deal is a wee bit of an understatement. So what if we were to have the first communist revolution fail? Say kerensky pulls out of world war one, which his otl failure to do so turned many to the bolshevik cause. What happens to the great war if the CP are bought those essential weeks? What happens to Russia? If the CP still lose, can hitler rise in a Germany not scared of russian communism? What happens to decolonization?
WI: Soviets Don't Rise In Russia?
- Thread starter AltoRegnant
- Start date
Assuming Kerensky and his faction maintain control long-term, things are going to be rough for a while. Kerensky is going to face the same question Lenin did: what to do with the peasants who want to own their own land. If he gives them that, he'll get a solid base of support and the SRs should be off his back. On the other hand, he just pissed off a lot of very powerful people, including the Tsar if he's still alive. Denying them the land keeps the elites mostly calm but invites even more trouble from the peasants.
He would also have the issue of the socialists, even if they don't decide to rise up in 1918. No matter when they rise up, they have the support of the big industrial centers of the country, which Russia can't afford to lose. Unless Kerensky cracks down fast and everything goes off perfectly, they're gonna be a constant thorn in his side.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure. I'm inclined to say that if Hitler did still rise to power and invade Russia, they wouldn't be able to hold him off without Stalin's crash industrialisation. The guy was terrible but he did get Russia ready for that war in a way I don't think Kerensky could have. Russia can have the best non-purged generals in the world but if they don't have tanks, airplanes, etc. they're gonna get steamrolled.
He would also have the issue of the socialists, even if they don't decide to rise up in 1918. No matter when they rise up, they have the support of the big industrial centers of the country, which Russia can't afford to lose. Unless Kerensky cracks down fast and everything goes off perfectly, they're gonna be a constant thorn in his side.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure. I'm inclined to say that if Hitler did still rise to power and invade Russia, they wouldn't be able to hold him off without Stalin's crash industrialisation. The guy was terrible but he did get Russia ready for that war in a way I don't think Kerensky could have. Russia can have the best non-purged generals in the world but if they don't have tanks, airplanes, etc. they're gonna get steamrolled.
I mean Russia was industrializing quite well before the revolution (I actually wonder how much was destroyed by the civil war stalin had to rebuild). But I see your point here
WW1 was so bad in Russia that we don't really know exactly how bad the revolution and civil war were. Records were lost or never made in the first place, the people who lived through the events (as is the way of these things) generally didn't write about their experiences and the whole mess lasted long enough that we don't have good context for the events that happened during it. However, Soviet industry reached 1913 levels again in around about 1928.
Kerensky almost certainly triggers a civil war by pulling out of the WW1, just like Lenin did. In OTL Lenin barely managed to convince his own party to support peace and that was when the Germans were so dominant that they could do whatever they liked. And even then, the nationalist backlash against Brest-Litovsk ignited a civil war. Ironically, ITTL Lenin and the Bolsheviks are almost certainly fighting the Kerensky government to try and bring Russia back into the war. Of course, if the army hasn't been destroyed by the Kerensky offensives, it would go very differently to the OTL civil war. Either the army would support peace (likely after killing a fair few of its own officers as war-weary conscripts removed any overly pro-war officers) or the army would support war (if the alignment of pro-war officers and pro-war socialist agitators succeed in containing any anti-war mutinies that may happen) or it would be split into pro-war and pro-peace pockets and things get really messy.
Naturally, this may create the temptation for the Germans to push too deep into Russia, since if the Russians are messily killing each-other, it's a super tempting opportunity for Germany to try and take the Baltic coast and the Ukraine, especially since the Germans have the pressure of the turnip winter urging them to grab more agricultural resources. Beyond that, I don't know enough to say if the Germans have any opportunities to win any significant victories in the west.
Quite possibly, the lack of a Bolshevik revolution means no "Scandinavian social model" since Sweden won't be frightened into building a serious welfare state.
It's also possible for the Socialists in France and Britain to do much better in post-war elections without the horrors of Bolshevism spewing bad press (though it depends on just how the factions in Russia are seen, in OTL Kerensky isn't seen as much of a socialist, but in TTL he could be the big socialist bugbear) and the apparent success of Lenin's coup splitting Europe's socialists into "Socialist democratic" camps and "Communist revolutionary" camps.
The impacts on German and Hungarian politics would be vast. No successful Bolsheviks means Bela Kun is extremely unlikely to gain any importance, in Germany the Socialists have a stronger hand and the extreme right a weaker one.
In Russia itself, the situation would be extremely complex, and some really wild outcomes could occur.
fasquardon
