WI: Soviet victory at Warsaw, 1920?

ThatOneGuy

ThatOneGuy

What if the Soviets were able to defeat the Poles in 1920 and take Warsaw? Do you think the Soviets would've been able to take all of Poland? If they did would the feared Revolutionary wave really overtake Europe or were the Soviets truly at the end of their metaphorical rope for the time.
 

ObssesedNuker

I think I'll just repost this summary of what I think is the most probable scenario:

1914 borders, plus Soviet Galicia, are the most likely short-term outcome here in terms of what the map looks like. The only question is whether the Soviets create a Polish SSR or instead form a puppet state.

Diplomatically, as noted, the British and French are liable to lighten, if not toss out altogether, many of the Versailles restrictions on Germany. Whether this is enough to assuage German concerns enough to prevent the rise of the Nazis or some other form of German revanchist movement that is just as anti-western as it is anti-communism is also a open question.

Additional communist revolutions are unlikely and the ones that did occur are only marginally more likely to succeed. The Soviets may toss them additional armaments, but are unlikely to go as far as all-out war to try and aid them. The failure of these revolutions are likely to still dampen enthusiasm among the Soviet leadership for Permanent Revolution, although maybe not quite to the same degree as OTL.

Poland’s fall does mean the Soviets are in a better position to grab other parts of the old empire that got away from them OTL: the Baltic’s and Finland. How the inclusion of them and a Sovietized Poland (whether nominally independent or absorbed as an SSR) would affect subsequent domestic Soviet politics is anyone’s guess.

Let me reiterate that the above is merely what I regard as the most likely outcome. Most other scenarios advanced here I do not regard as impossible, merely less likely./quote]
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Vassonx

RedSword12 said:
The Soviets give the Germans Polish land back as planned, and strengthen ties to the Weimar Republic.
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Which might bring the two regimes even closer once the Great Depression hits everywhere except the USSR, and the moderates of Weimar become increasingly unpopular compared to the communist and fascist radicals. If the USSR manages to assist the Weimar economy during the Depression, communists in general might be seen far more favorably by the German public than it was in OTL (Favorable enough to turn the voters to Thälmann more than Hitler? No clue.).
 

Lalli

Probably Poland would be just vassalised if Soviets feels annexation causing too much pain on their asses.

Not sure what happens with Germany. But France probably is not going to give up any restrictions of Versailles even if Brits are worried about Soviet Union are are more willingful remove some restrictions.
 

Vault Dweller

Lalli said:
Not sure what happens with Germany. But France probably is not going to give up any restrictions of Versailles even if Brits are worried about Soviet Union are are more willingful remove some restrictions.
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I suspect sufficient British (diplomatic and financial) pressure would be applied to France to ease up.
 
Suzon

Suzon

Treay of Trianon is thrown out or revised. Instead, France will allow a larger and stronger Hungary on the border with the Soviets (this was planned when the war was going good for the Soviets in OTL).
 

Lalli

Suzon said:
Treay of Trianon is thrown out or revised. Instead, France will allow a larger and stronger Hungary on the border with the Soviets (this was planned when the war was going good for the Soviets in OTL).
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I can't see French ease anything on Versailles without hard pressure of Britain. Not even if Germany threats to surrend immediately when Red Army crosses Plish-German border.

Trianon might not be that harsh anyway since France hardly had that bad feelings towards Hungary.
 

Marko

How would Trianon be less harsh? It was pretty much confirmation of the situation on the ground and I don't see anyone giving back land to the Hungarians.
 
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