WI: Soviet Victory at Demiansk

The Red Army in January 1942, following it's dramatic victory at Moscow, launched an expanded counteroffensive. One major arm of this was an attack by Northwestern Front's 34th, 11th, and 24th armies again the German 16th army, defending Demiansk and Staraia Rusa. Along with 3rd Shock Army, attacking from the south, they were able to encircle the German II Corps around Demiansk. However, exhausted and understrength, they were unable to reduce the pocket, and a labs corridor was opened in late March.

The POD is that STAVKA, which was extremely frustrated with Volkhov Front's slow progress following it's victory at Tikhvin, decides to commit 2nd Shock Army against German forces around Demiansk, rather than against Lyuban, which IOTL ended in disaster. With these extra forces, the Red Army is able to destroy II Corps, with only small groups breaking out to the west or evacuated by air.

How dies this effect the camaign through the rest of 1942?
 

katchen

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katchen

It could be Stalingrad 11 months early (though I confess, I haven't researched the placement of German divisions in the North of Russia at that time). Someone who has might feel free to correct me). At the very least, the siege of Leningrad is relieved and a million Russians live who otherwise would have starved to death. A campaign against Finland to knock Finland out of the war now becomes a possibility (in OTL, Finland was permitted to surrender early and maintain it's independence). And if there's nothing between II Corps and the Baltic, German lines could snap back to the Dvina River or even East Prussia and Lithuania before the Germans could stabilize the situation. In that case, no movement east from the Ukraine in 1942, but an attempt at a move north to recapture the Baltics and Smolensk to Leningrad.
 
II Corps wasn't large enough to constitue a Stalingrad-esque scenario; the effects would be more that large Soviet forces, which were tied down for most of 1942 trying to destroy II Corps, will now be availiable for offensives against a weakened 16th Army. 2nd Shock Army will also not have been destroyed, leaving it in position to act as an assault force for Volkhov, Leningrad, or Northwestern Fronts.
 
. A campaign against Finland to knock Finland out of the war now becomes a possibility (in OTL, Finland was permitted to surrender early and maintain it's independence).

By spring 1942, Finnish troops have reached Eastern Karelia and are considering where and how to defend their new positions. Relief of the siege of Leningrad so early will undoubtedly force them to commit more troops to Karelian Isthmus. Considering the fact that RKKA was still recovering from the catastrophic defeats of previous year, a spring offensive in the Isthmus in 1942 would most likely suffer the fate of similar counterattacks launched in Svir in OTL - beaten back with heavy casualties.

Ironically this may doom Finnish war effort in the long run.
If most of Finnish forces are now concentrated to Isthmus, a properly executed and led major offensive later in the war will be able to smash the static defences and rout the defenders - and this time there is no option to draw in fresh forces from Eastern Karelia to stop the Soviets further north in the Isthmus after an attritional delaying action.

Historically the fate of Finland in WW2 was closely linked to Soviet foreign relations with Washington - both Roosevelt and Churchill held the view that Finland should be punished for allying with Nazis, but not outright annexed. Naturally this was all just talk, but apparently Stalin was unwilling to risk too much for such a small gain.

Then again Finnish Army that in OTL was ultimately able to rally and halt the Soviet major offensive towards Kymi River and Kotka before it reached a line where the route to Helsinki would have been wide open in summer 1944 was also a factor to consider. Without it, Stalin would have undoubtedly installed a puppet regime.
 
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