WI: Soviet Union Learns of Operation Barbarossa A Month in Advanced

What if instead of being a surprise attack in the summer of 1941, the Soviet Union gets wind of a German pre-invasion build up along the border and is able to convince Stalin to take action? What difference does this make?
 

trurle

Banned
Most likely, it mean Operation Barbarossa will be cancelled, or launched earlier to still catch Soviets by surprise. The spy and recon network of Germany was adequate. Also, the Germany has some wiggling room for date selection. The Battle of Greece ended 30 April 1941. So may be instead of Battle of Crete (end of May 1941) Germany will launch an early Barbarossa.:D
IOTL, Soviets were already built the army on border. Germans watched it and attacked at the moment of the calculated best odds (which happened to be 22 June 1941)
 
Then the PoD isn't where the Soviets learn about the buildup, it's where they actually manage to hammer it through Stalin's skull.
 
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What if instead of being a surprise attack in the summer of 1941, the Soviet Union gets wind of a German pre-invasion build up along the border and is able to convince Stalin to take action? What difference does this make?

Do they have concrete evidence, or just rumors?
 
Do they have concrete evidence, or just rumors?
Everyone knew it was coming. Stalin was deep in denial about it; he had miscalculated how badly Hitler wanted a war with the Soviet Union.

Intelligence provided by Richard Sorge had confirmed their strategic intentions, and the time frame of the expected invasion. The physical evidence too, was overwhelming. Even crippled as they were (Stalin forbade any cross border reconaissance, lest it give Hitler casus belli), the frontier forces knew that the Germans were gathering large amounts of men and material. It just couldn't be hidden.
 
I'm seriously of the mindset that it hurts Russia, simply because Russian doctrine would have been to put more men at the border, if not pre-emptively attack, instead of holding back in fear of "escalating" things as they did OTL.

THe key advantage Russia would have is an extra month of calling up raw recruits, which means they will have a half a million more raw recruits by end year than they did OTL. THey wouldn't have the guns and bullets for them, so they won't be the difference maker that Obsessed thinks, especially if the back of the Russian army is broken closer to the startline, instead of at the Stalin Line.

The Germans only enjoyed quanitative superiority after they took Kiev. If Stalin throw everything he has in early, the Germans will enjoy this superiority sooner as their ability to maneuver and bomb the USSR is only improved the closer the big battles happen to the start line.
 
Of course, every POD involving the WWII Eastern Front somehow favors the Germans, even it is losing the enormous advantage of attacking with total surprise. :rolleyes:
 
If the Soviets try to pre-empt an attack against prepared German Divisions ..
The Soviets in either April, May or June would have to attack the Germans during that rainy season and likewise be bogged down and try to smash into the Axis Forces arrayed against her...
 
Of course, every POD involving the WWII Eastern Front somehow favors the Germans, even it is losing the enormous advantage of attacking with total surprise. :rolleyes:

not at all. A full and organized retreat to the Stalin line, which would have forced the Germans to fight through easily defensible forests instead of rolling right through would have been dwntrimental to the axis. However, this was not soviet doctrine at the time. Napoleon essentially lost because of the Russians retreating. Letting the Germans defeat the Russian army near the border would have been equivalenet to Russia fighting napoleon right at the Russian border looking for a decisive victory or defeat asap.
 
I'm seriously of the mindset that it hurts Russia, simply because Russian doctrine would have been to put more men at the border, if not pre-emptively attack, instead of holding back in fear of "escalating" things as they did OTL.
Maybe, but it would allow them to reinforce the Stalin Line, which would at least delay a thrust.
 
Depends on precisely what the Soviets do. Manning defensive positions, crash maintenance drives on equipment, calling up the reservists, and general full mobilization will be helpful because it makes the frontier forces more then a rather hefty speed bump and ensures the strategic reserves on the D'niepr are much more powerful when the over extended Germans run into them. Trying to launch a pre-emptive strike, on the other hand, is one of the few things that might outright lose the Soviets the war.
 
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