WI Soviet Union invades Poland in 1938

What if the Soviet Union invades Poland in November of 1938, a month after Germany invaded Czechoslovakia. What might happen? Would Germany, France, or Britain declare war on the Soviet Union? Or would they just allow it to happen?
 
I don't see any of the mentioned states to declare war on USSR. Throw it out of LoN? Yes. Send military aid to Poland? Yes. But no formal declaration of war. Of course it'd be interesting if the ships transporting arms & ammunition to Poland - and they would be doing it under the flag of one of the western powers - have been attacked by the Soviet Navy...
 
I don't see any of the mentioned states to declare war on USSR. Throw it out of LoN? Yes. Send military aid to Poland? Yes. But no formal declaration of war. Of course it'd be interesting if the ships transporting arms & ammunition to Poland - and they would be doing it under the flag of one of the western powers - have been attacked by the Soviet Navy...

Germany might do some saber ratteling and it would depend how close the soviets got their border... you could very easily see something like the Yalu counter attack if Stalin got closer than Hitler was comfortable with
 
What if the Soviet Union invades Poland in November of 1938, a month after Germany invaded Czechoslovakia. What might happen? Would Germany, France, or Britain declare war on the Soviet Union? Or would they just allow it to happen?
:confused:Why would he (Stalin) do that? You notice that OTL, he waited until until AFTER the Germans had moved into Poland to take his half. I think he LIKED Germany soaking up the West's anger and energy.

When did the UK and France guarantee Poland's independence? Had it happened yet? If so, they may declare war on the USSR, which would be pretty counterproductive for everyone (except Hitler).
 

Cook

Banned
Poland and the Soviet Union were at war in 1919-1921 so there was no love lost between them and plenty of grounds for dispute. Nearly half of Polish territory in 1938 was land taken from the Soviet Union in ’21 and inhabited by mostly Byelorussians and Ukrainians.

In 1938 Poland was chummy enough with Hitler’s Germany to grab a piece of Czechoslovakia at Munich so at the time, prior to Hitler making demands on Polish territory it’s not unthinkable for Hitler to send troops to aid Poland in fighting the International Jewish Bolshevik threat. Hitler’s demands for Polish land in 1939 OTL was pure opportunism and not part of a Strategic plan.

France and Britain would be likely to publicly make Tut tut noises and propose an embargo on arms sales to both sides, as they did with Spain during the civil war. Privately they’d be ecstatic at Hitler and Stalin clashing over Poland. Wether they would have the common sense to use this time to strengthen their own defences is worth contemplating, in OTL Munich was seen by them as a way of avoiding war, not a as a way to gain time to prepare for war.

Russia’s Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky had feared an attack on the Soviet Union by a combined Polish German force and had made plans to defend against it. But he’d been killed in the Purges of the Red Army in 1937. None of the Russian generals of 1938 were of his calibre.

With Stalin calling most of the shots and the massive and ongoing damage to industry and the Army being done by the Purge you can expect the Red Army to perform as bad or worse then they did against Finland in 1939 in OTL.

The Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia all had small but credible armies and all had reason to fear Stalin’s Russia. If the German - Polish Armies started gaining ground it’s possible they would weigh in against the Soviet Union too.

That said, Germany was not ready in 1938 for a large war and would have struggled to push deep into Soviet territory. Perhaps a refighting of the battle of Tannenberg with Armour would be the result.

Would Comrade Stalin offer a cease-fire after his forces were pushed back?
Probably. His position in OTL wasn’t weakened by the poor showing in the 1939 Winter War.

Would Hitler and Poland’s Skladkowski accept such an offer when they were winning?
Unlikely. Certainly not without gaining as much ground as they believed possible.
 
Small correction, if I may. Poland did not conspire with Hitler to partition Czechoslovakia. Poles simply used the opportunity that Munich was - weakened and alone Czechoslovakia could not resist when Poles demanded Cieszyn/Tesin. There was no Polish-German plot.
Hitler's demands from 1939 were not opportunistic. He DID want Danzig and highway through Polish Corridor - frankly, he wanted much more. Problem was that Htler wanted Lebensraum in the east and Poland was in his way.
 

Cook

Banned
I never mentioned a German Polish conspiracy. What I said was that Poland was on good enough terms with Germany to be asking for their slice of the corpse of Czechoslovakia.

And a war in 1938 would have given Hitler the opportunity to grab plenty of land in the East and defeat the International Jewish Bolsheviks at the same time, hardly an opportunity he would pass up lightly.

Would a German Polish alliance be an alliance of equals? No, of course not. But what alliance between Germany and anyone else was?

Would such an alliance have lasted? Don’t know. Outside the scope of initial question.
 
Originally posted by Cook
I never mentioned a German Polish conspiracy. What I said was that Poland was on good enough terms with Germany to be asking for their slice of the corpse of Czechoslovakia.
Poland didn't ask anybody for "their slice". Warsaw simply sent demands to Prague and Czechoslovakian government, feeling completely isolated, agreed. And I don't think Poland wanted to destroy Czechoslovakia - after all, Hitler promised he had no other claims and that the rest of Czechoslovakia was safe. German occupation in 1939 was complete surprise as for Poland as for rest of Europe.

And a war in 1938 would have given Hitler the opportunity to grab plenty of land in the East and defeat the International Jewish Bolsheviks at the same time, hardly an opportunity he would pass up lightly.
Here I agree.
 
Hitler had wanted the United Kingdom to support his crusade against the Communists. While an invasion of Poland is hardly anything Germany would shed any tears for, the opportunity to get a casus Belli against the Soviets that would give him the support of the West would be irresistible.

This would probably be a major blunder, however--while the Soviet Logistical Train isn't necessarily well equipped to drive to the Rhine River, Germany's armed forces and industry are in no position to really stand off the Soviets, and Nazi Germany's defeat is assured. Hitler being Hitler, however, would probably throw it all away...
 

nbcman

Donor
When did the UK and France guarantee Poland's independence? Had it happened yet? If so, they may declare war on the USSR, which would be pretty counterproductive for everyone (except Hitler).

The UK/French guarantee of Poland occurred March or April '39-so there was no guarantee at this time. I doubt that the UK or France could get enough political will to DOW the Soviets if they were already at war with Germany.
 
Germany would declare war to the soviet-union as soon as the official state of war between the soviet-union and Poland was confirmed, Romania would declare war to the soviet-union, Italy and Hungary would follow. France and the UK would not, at least not against the soviet-union.
The Junta would initially refuse German help, convinced that the Polish military would be able to defeat the attack, Hitler would oblige as it take time to bring his forces along the Polish border and against the Czech state (Slovakia joins the axis). Then, Polish armies would be steam-rolled in battle and breake appart, start running away, polish governement beggs Hitler while the red army approches Warsawa.
Red army is defeated by an early version of the Blitzkrieg, Warsawa is retaken but Hitler does not push further, instead axis troops gives priority to secure Romania and the Ploesti oilfields.
After deliberation, Franco decide to join the axis for post-war reconstruction help, he know that should Germany be invaded, the Franco-British alliance stand in the way to invade Spain. In fact, it is a safe bet the Franco-British alliance would declare war if the red army reached as far as the Rhine.
In the immediate, both sides are militarizing as fast as possible and moves little beyond their borders, that becomes know as The Stand. :)

Will Italy move against Albania? Will the baltic countries join the axis? Will Bulgaria join in exchange for futur territorial concessions from Greece and Yugoslavia?


Evidently, such conflict would be radically different from the ultimately deceitfull glories of operation Barbarossa. Early blitzkrieg would be limited, later would be better equipped but the soviets command would be wiser. Hard-earned victories are often the most thoroughly exploited, hardier beginning would mean more emphasis will be placed in creating armies recruted from soviet territories, most specially a Russian Nationalist Army those leaders would "secede" (in the name of freedoom, of course) western territories wanted by Germany.
 
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By the way - Germany and Poland by then still were officially bound together by the Pact of Non-Aggression of 1934.

In this light, I deem German assistance for Poland quite feasible. Hitler would hate to fight alongside the Poles - but he wouldn't prefer having the Red Army 100 km away from Berlin.

What would Finland's reaction be in such a scenario? Possible Axis partner?
 

Cook

Banned
while the Soviet Logistical Train isn't necessarily well equipped to drive to the Rhine River, Germany's armed forces and industry are in no position to really stand off the Soviets, and Nazi Germany's defeat is assured.

The Red Army couldn't even do a good job against Finland in '39 and that was after they'd taken the first steps towards recovery from the Purges.
In 1938 the Red Army's performance can be expected to be worse.

Neither side would be properly prepared so it would more likely resemble a large border dispute are then the Eastern Front in OTL.
 
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