WI: Soviet Union attacking Japan in May 1942

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by trurle, Oct 31, 2017.

?

The fate of Japan?

  1. To fall within 2 months

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. To fall within 6 months

    2 vote(s)
    6.7%
  3. To fall within a 2 years

    2 vote(s)
    6.7%
  4. To fall eventually

    3 vote(s)
    10.0%
  5. Stalemate

    3 vote(s)
    10.0%
  6. Invasion to Japan will fail

    5 vote(s)
    16.7%
  7. Invasion to Japan will fail catastrophically, with severe backlash to Soviets

    15 vote(s)
    50.0%
  1. trurle bored blue collar worker Banned

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    This is scenario from the human-vs-human wargame.
    POD: In summer 1941, operation Barbarossa has failed catastrophically due combination of German inept strategic command and strategic blunders related to war production.

    By December 1941, Soviet forces were on the eastern outskirts of Germany proper. Pearl Harbor never happened, instead the Japan was drawn increasingly closer to US side. The Allied support for Soviet Union rapidly faded, as increasingly over-confident Red Army rolled country one after another, with the agenda of world revolution. By March 1942, everybody was against Soviet Union, who had by that time overrun Berlin, Rome, Zurich, Istanbul, Alexandria, Tehran, Seoul and most of China.

    While front-lines in Europe has eventually stabilized (with now German-allied British forces nearly openly firing artillery barrages over the heads of remaining German troops in remaining thin strip of Germany proper), the Soviet Union leadership has decided to switch focus to Eastern Front - to knock Japan out of war.

    In late May 1942, Red Army, mustering improvised naval transports capable to carry ~4 million infantry, and with cargo holds large enough to fit about 1/3 of these infantry`s vehicles and artillery, has launched a massive amphibious invasion to the Honshu island, with spearhead at Maizuru.

    The Red Army is supported by massive and well-experienced air force of roughly 30,000 aircraft (Pe-3, LaGG-3, MTB-2, Il-4 etc.) but Soviet Navy in Pacific is completely annihilated. IJN also got heavy losses. Only one battleship (Yamato) is combat-ready, as well as recently completed aircraft carrier Hiyo. Four more battleships (all heavily damaged) are docked in Tokyo Bay and are under repair, and 6 aircraft carriers (all heavily damaged) are under repair in Nagoya bay. Japanese cruisers are all either destroyed or too heavily damaged to leave ports - mostly due Soviet torpedo bombers. Also, about 20 IJN destroyers of all states of damage are more or less seaworthy. Finally, ~35 ocean-going submarines and ~80 midget submarines are available. Japanese air forces are in severe disarray after failed defence of Manchuria and Korea. About 10,000 of modern aircraft (A6M, Ki-43, Ki-45, G4M, Ki-21, Ki-49, H6K) are available, but almost no pilots has survived. Home islands defences of IJA consists of approximately 1.5 million soldiers, with approximately half been assigned to coastal defense sectors with all available artillery.

    Regardless of plausibility of such disposition (i assume the situation is impossible IOTL for several reasons) could anybody provide the forecast of such a conflict?
     
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  2. nbcman Donor

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    What forecast would you like? The Red Army is invading Japan with a force 3+ times the size forecast for Operation Downfall-and have assembled such an armada 3-5 years faster than the two premier naval powers in the world could. Not to mention the other 'Red Alert' aspects such as the Soviets not only pushing the Germans back but invading China(!), Turkey(!!) and Switzerland(!!!) by the Spring of 1942. The scenario is too implausible to realistically discuss in this forum.
     
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  3. Michele Well-Known Member

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    How do you say sea lion in Japanese?
     
  4. Broek Well-Known Member

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    Manchuria and Korea would be overrun, but the USSR could never muster the naval forces to overcome the Japanese.
    Add that in this Scenario Japan is moving closer to the USA and that the oil embargo is most likely gone we will see a scenario where the USSR wastes a lot of forces in Asia without being able to pull off a decisive win.
     
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  5. Obergruppenführer Smith Chasing the Man in the High Castle Banned

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    German: Zeereebe (ゼーレーヴェ)
    English: Shiiraion (シーライオン)
    Native: Ashika (アシカ)
     
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  6. Hammerbolt Well-Known Member

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    How?! And how are is the tiny sov fleet supposed to escort, not just the first waves, but also the support and supply convoys? Not to mention there's no way such a massive fleet could be assembled in secret. Which means no surprise attack is possible.

    This is Sealion on a grander scale, including the "massive disaster" part...
     
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  7. kernals12 Proudly on the Autism Spectrum Kicked

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    The Soviets were in no position to fight a 2 front war.
     
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  8. trurle bored blue collar worker Banned

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    Ashika.
     
  9. trurle bored blue collar worker Banned

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    I also going to push for this outcome. Of course, if that impossible Soviet horde will not overrun Tokyo within a month.
     
  10. trurle bored blue collar worker Banned

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    They are not escorting. No Soviet warships at all - not after clashing with IJN. Well, Soviets try to organize air patrols with torpedo bombers, with variable success. The wargame progress for now results in 100,000-150,000 Soviet casualties per day. Mostly due torpedoes of Japanese submarines. I hope this qualify for "major disaster"..
     
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  11. Hammerbolt Well-Known Member

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    Then... no. Nonononono. No. Not even Stalin would we crazy enough for this...
     
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  12. Raferty Well-Known Member

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    Oct 23, 2017
    The motorized forces of the Soviet Far Eastern Front had been stripped away, I think, and brought west in late 1941. Not sure if the TransBaikal Front still had theirs.

    But if not, I seriously question how far the Soviets could get into Manchuria with a May 1942 offensive. The terrain in many areas is quite good for defense and the Japanese would have a clear supply line and air superiority. They may have been stretched manpower wise, but the Soviets aren't just going to walk over like they did in 1945 with their mobile offensive against little opposition.

    As for the idea of putting millions of men onto transports at short notice and hopping over to Honshu, well, that is just lunacy and not really worth discussing.
     
  13. Winestu Well-Known Member

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    What war game is this scenario based off of?
     
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  14. Michele Well-Known Member

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    There is a reason for my question upthread.

    And thanks to those who answered.
     
  15. eltf177 Well-Known Member

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    The Soviets can drive the Japanese out of Manchuria and probably Korea, but the Sea of Japan is going to be just as impregnable as the English Channel. The Soviets cannot protect the invasion fleet against the IJN, especially if Japan now has the fuel and scrap iron that the embargo stopped. You have to know ship production has resumed as much as possible as have aircraft production.
     
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  16. trurle bored blue collar worker Banned

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    SOE2. Well, its industrial output model is weird and logistics is rudimentary, allowing massed transport attacks.
    Yes, i invest in hurried production of midget submarines. These seems to be the best tool to rapidly break the spine of invasion force because naval aviation is difficult to use in the environment of Soviet air superiority.
     
  17. pattersonautobody Well-Known Member

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    It would be a catastrophe. For one, the Soviets would have likely mishandled their offensive and it would be ground to a halt (Manchuria is a very big place.) The diversion of resources probably guarentees that Stalingrad falls in August. Further, this means that Soviet attempts to liberate Leningrad in winter 43 fail in opening a corridor. The result is by May 1943, Leningrad has fallen, Russia has 6 months of oil left, and they have Lend Lease cut off from Iran and the far east. Russia by Summer 43 will likely drop out of the war by making armistices with Germany and Japan, likely ceding wherever the front lines are in the west and allowing the Japanese to reoccupy Manchuria.
     
  18. UCB79 Bookworm, 1st class

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    Not only that- why in the name of Karl Marx
    would they WANT to?