WI Soviet troops in Poland in 1981

mattep74

US would act like they did when Hungary was invaded in 59 and such incidents. With words, they wouldnt do anything like going to war over what happened on the Soviet side of the iron curtain.

Jaruzelskis decission to envoke martial law was what saved Poland from beeing invaded and put under direct Soviet rule
 

MerryPrankster

How effective would the Polish Army have been if the Russians had invaded the country?

Would it be immediately crippled/neutralized by Soviet infiltrators, political officers, etc, or would there have been a fight?

The Poles would eventually lose unless there's some kind of mass mutiny among the Red Army troops (in Hungary in the 50s men were executed for refusing to fire on protestors, so that might not be too farfetched)--however, they might be capable of doing some damage.

Could the US smuggle arms to Polish guerrilla types like we were doing in Afghanistan?
 

CCA

MerryPrankster said:
How effective would the Polish Army have been if the Russians had invaded the country?

Would it be immediately crippled/neutralized by Soviet infiltrators, political officers, etc, or would there have been a fight?

The Poles would eventually lose unless there's some kind of mass mutiny among the Red Army troops (in Hungary in the 50s men were executed for refusing to fire on protestors, so that might not be too farfetched)--however, they might be capable of doing some damage.

Could the US smuggle arms to Polish guerrilla types like we were doing in Afghanistan?
Click to expand...

AFAIK no, Poland was securely in the orbit of the Soviet Union
 

Peter Cowan

Hungary 1956...nothing but rhetoric
Czechoslovakia 1968...nothing but rhetoric
Poland 1981...well..guess

The West would protest but do nothing concrete - large numbers of nuclear weapons and whole load of T-72 tanks pointed at one tends to engender a certain caution.

It might, however, lead to serious splits in the European Left Wing - I can remember a wonderful argument between some student reps at an NUS meeting between those who praised Solidarity as genuine representatives of the workers and others who believied they were running dog lackeys of the capitalist west.
 

Otis Tarda

First of all, I doubt whether Soviets would enter. Probably they'd change the leaders of PZPR (Polish United Party of Workers, or just Communist Party) with some representanst of "hawk" wing.
Anyway, if they decided to enter, there would be no bloodshed. The Church probably would call people to be calm, in the Solidarity there were no "guerilla" wing, and the army was either loyal, or intimidated, or (as was unit my father served) virtually armless.
No bloodshed, some unavoidable accidents, maybe few riots, nothing more. Of course, leaders of Solidarity would be arrested, and probably sentenced to prison.

The difference between Czechoslovakia 68' and Hungary 56' was that in Poland 81' there was Solidarity and Church, both peaceful and both having some authority among people.

US and West would react with words of compassion, humanitarian aid and meaybe some sanctions against Soviet Union (which could hurt it, IMHO), but nothing more.
 

Grimm Reaper

A few problems for the Soviets:


1) Invasion will make painfully clear to the world that the Soviet reserve system is broken, leaving Moscow with an increasingly shattering military budget and a world that no longer takes the Red Army very seriously. An army whose reserves can't be counted within 30 days for a campaign right over the border is in serious difficulty.

2) Poland's fifteen divisions just vanished from the WPO, and, based on the Russian forces in Hungary since 1956 and Czechoslovakia since 1968 something on the order of an additional ten Russian divisions are now stuck on occupation duty. That is a substantial weakening of Soviet military credibility.

3) This takes place at the peak of Soviet activity in Afghanistan, which itself did little to help the Soviets. Even presuming no substantial resistance, which I think is reasonable, the Soviets are not looking very good.

4) The wild card is the Polish Army. In 1954 the Soviets backed down a bit because those military units not disarmed were ready to fight. In 1981 the Soviets have only a handful of units on the Polish-East German border leaving no hope of disarming the Polish Army. Given the long history of Poland's soldiers fighting against hopeless odds I would not rule out that an all-out invasion would have been faced by a good portion of the Polish Army.
 

Otis Tarda

THe point is that I can't see anyone fighting against Soviets. In 56' there were some pre-WWII soldiers and even officers, that could have some sense of honor. In 81', most of army consisted of people born after 45'. Some of them could be considered "suspicious" or "uncertain" (students or graduates, for example), but they was disarmed.
My Dad served in army at 13th December. He told me, that they didn't have any access to weapon, and were cut off from information that day. Authorities just didn't trust them.
So, in case of Soviet enterering to Poland, just half of Polish Army would guard the other half, Citizen Militia (just police) and Security Service would cooperate along with Red Army. There will be no uprising, I assure you.
 

Melvin Loh

Just had an idea- in Poland 1981 or for that matter Hungary 56 or Czechoslovakia 68, WI the US Had employed the CIA and 10th SFG to cause more trouble behind Soviet lines TO ASSIST THE ANTI-cOMMUNIST FORCES ?
 

Abdul Hadi Pasha

Banned
Melvin Loh said:
Just had an idea- in Poland 1981 or for that matter Hungary 56 or Czechoslovakia 68, WI the US Had employed the CIA and 10th SFG to cause more trouble behind Soviet lines TO ASSIST THE ANTI-cOMMUNIST FORCES ?
Click to expand...

I think there's this tendency to think of Poland as an enslaved nation groaning under Russian oppression. It really wasn't like that. More like being stuck in the movie Brazil. The Russians would have to ban vodka or the Virgin Mary to get a guerilla campaign going.

Or if anyone REALLY wanted to see the cities burn, just distribute a BMW to one household on every street.
 

Melvin Loh

Just fyi, read in a new OSPREY MEN-AT-ARMS book about the 1956 Hungarian Rising that apparently 1 undercover 10th SFG officer in Budapest was questioned by some Soviet conscripts about where they were, and he answered em in perfect Russian.
 

Zireael

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
I think there's this tendency to think of Poland as an enslaved nation groaning under Russian oppression. It really wasn't like that. More like being stuck in the movie Brazil. The Russians would have to ban vodka or the Virgin Mary to get a guerilla campaign going.

Or if anyone REALLY wanted to see the cities burn, just distribute a BMW to one household on every street.
Click to expand...

The Russians (the Communists) tried to create an atheist culture and government, so that's pretty much like 'banning the Virgin Mary'. The Church was oppressed, people were having their life made difficult just for being Christian... priests were killed or imprisoned...

I see one of two outcomes if Soviets intervene in 1981 - a) they crush everything and practically annex PL b) there is a mass anti-communist movement rather like the Uprising
 

oudi14

There are people involved in this discussion that know far more about Poland than I do, but wouldn't they fight back at all? Not even protest as much as the Czechs did in '68? I was around back then, and I remember that incident being in the news for months. Polish soldiers stood up to the Wermacht as well as they could, under impossible odds, so are their sons and grandsons just going to roll over and play dead when the Red Army comes charging in? Its not as if Poles and Russians love each other, never mind the WP.
Another possibility. I remember reading that the Pope publicly stated that if his native land was invaded, he would go there and stand with his people. What if this actually happens? What if there is a demonstration happening somewhere in Warsaw of Krackow, a la Tiennamen Square, shooting erupts, and JP is shot dead? Then, at the very least, IMHO, Poland '81 turns into Hungary '56 in a big hurry. I agree the west will just bluster, they won't start WW 3 just because some idiot private in the Red Army just took out the Pope, but this will have to cause the shit to hit the fan in some major way. Or maybe not? Christ, were we THAT scared of the Russkies back then?
 
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