WI: Soviet Russia lost Baku after Brest-Litovsk

IOTL, Soviet Russia didn't have to cede Georgia, Azerbajian and Armenia to Ottoman Empire. What if they were forced to renounce these territories after Brest-Litovsk and for some reasons, couldn't regain them after Ottoman Empire collapsed? Would the loss of Baku be fatal enough to the Soviet's industrialization efforts (I heard that the oil in Siberia was not discovered yet during this period) and eventually lead to their defeat during WWII?
 
The territory that the Ottomans get would eventually get independence after the Entente wins the war. And similar, to how Russia invaded Ukraine shortly afterword, the Soviets would have surely invaded the Caucasus territory to regain it's oil.
 
The territory that the Ottomans get would eventually get independence after the Entente wins the war. And similar, to how Russia invaded Ukraine shortly afterword, the Soviets would have surely invaded the Caucasus territory to regain it's oil.

For the sake of discussion, I assumed that Russia might not regain the territories due to a certain reason, maybe they became the League of Nations' mandates under the control of Britain, for example.
 
For the sake of discussion, I assumed that Russia might not regain the territories due to a certain reason, maybe they became the League of Nations' mandates under the control of Britain, for example.

The reason why they are unable would make a big difference in this case. Do you have an suggestions for that 'certain reason'?

A civil war or an incompetent ruler could both serve, but they have very different effects.
 
The reason why they are unable would make a big difference in this case. Do you have an suggestions for that 'certain reason'?

A civil war or an incompetent ruler could both serve, but they have very different effects.

I admit I haven't looked very deep into the reason itself due to my focus on the importance of Baku to Soviet industry. But as I said in the previous post, maybe these territories were given to Ottoman after Brest-Litovsk and after the war, fell into the hands of Britain as LoN mandates. Would Lenin dare to wage war against Britain to regain them?
 
Well, how protected would these areas be?

I suppose Britain would station enough force to hold border skirmishes, moreover they could be reinforced by bases from Iraq. However, it might be a little difficult to keep the supply line connected all the time since Caucasus is separated from Iraq by Turkey and Iran.
 
IOTL, Soviet Russia didn't have to cede Georgia, Azerbajian and Armenia to Ottoman Empire. What if they were forced to renounce these territories after Brest-Litovsk and for some reasons, couldn't regain them after Ottoman Empire collapsed? Would the loss of Baku be fatal enough to the Soviet's industrialization efforts (I heard that the oil in Siberia was not discovered yet during this period) and eventually lead to their defeat during WWII?
Hmmm, an interesting possibility for a Central Powers victory timeline. And with interesting global geo-political ramifications given the Ottomans would control even more of the world's known and accessible oil supplies. Would it help the "sick man" hobble along for a little longer? Or speed the collapse as neighbouring powers (including former allies like Germany and A-H) eye up all that oil...

But that wasn't the question you were asking.

I suppose Britain would station enough force to hold border skirmishes, moreover they could be reinforced by bases from Iraq. However, it might be a little difficult to keep the supply line connected all the time since Caucasus is separated from Iraq by Turkey and Iran.
There's probably be constant low-level insurgency supported by the Soviets. Death by a thousand nibbles.
 

yourworstnightmare

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One reason the Caucasus front wasn't a part of Bretsk- Litovsk was the simple fact that the Russians were stronger on that front and the Central Powers were afraid peace talks would collapse if the Caucasus issue was raised.

During the tumultous period of the Russian Civil War and the Turkish War for Independence, the three caucasus nations were independent. However they were then absorbed into the USSR, or when it came to Armenia divided between the USSR and Turkey. Also the Three Caucasus nations ended up fighting each other quite early after declaring independence, because how volatile the siutation was and because of border disputes. There was also a short lived Mountanous Republic of the Northern Caucasus.
 
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