WI - Soviet Invasion of Turkey?

BlondieBC

Banned
Do you think this would prompt the Allies to actively declare war and intervene in Turkey? IOTL there was a pretty strong faction in both Britain and France pushing to DoW the USSR.

At this point controlling the Dardanelles and getting a foothold in the Balkans would be a major boon to the Allies in the wider war, especially being able to influence Romania and Bulgaria and start trying to pull nations in the region out of Germany's economic orbit.

Not only do I think the UK declares war, it may well make Stalin seem to be as great a threat as Hitler to British, but not French Interests. The British are going to be terrified about possibly losing the straights, the soviets nearer to oil supplies, and possible future threats to the Suez canal. An the British/French at this point probably expect to see Germans stopped in Flanders.

I would also not be surprised that if after this DoW, the British tried to cut some realpolitik deal with Japan. Accepting the permanent loss of access to the Yantzee river basin is much easier to take than a Soviet fleet with bases in the Med. Or Germany sitting in Calais.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I don't see how'd they be able to add the Turks, who would have all their forces tied up fighting the Soviets even if the Red Army has decided to put on a tragicomedy performance, or the Balkan states, who might become more pro-Allied but aren't gonna break neutrality just yet with a whole lot of angry Russians and Germans to their north. With those same neutral Balkan states in the way, there isn't really anything to deflect/divert German forces and while Mussolini may be pissed at the Soviets and pissed at Adolf for letting them get away with this (even if Adolf isn't actually letting them get away with this), he isn't about to haul off and attack the Germans, especially if the Germans proceed to clothesline France. If the Germans contemplate a Balkans campaign, it's gonna be after they've knocked out France because they know they can't put that off any later. And at that point, Hitler can just intimidate them back into the Axis and, if Turkey hasn't folded to the Soviets yet, snag the straits.

Italy is not in the war yet. Italy, France, Turkey, and the UK have interest in stopping the Soviets in Turkey. Mussolini would love some concessions to help him build his new Roman empire, and compared to the Soviets occupying Turkey. The Italian fleet is strong enough to dominate the Black Sea. Italy might well have land/naval units support Turks, in exchange for concessions in the Adriatic, Africa, or other ego boosting areas. And I am not sure the Hitler really want Italy to join his war with France that much. While this is unlikely to the the treaty, imagine Italy offering to do a major effort to stop the Soviets in exchange for Tunisia. Might look good to France. Or maybe for a big chunk of empty'ish parts of Africa so his colonial empires are land connected. Is western and southern Sudan really that useful to the Allies.
 

Deleted member 1487

I would also not be surprised that if after this DoW, the British tried to cut some realpolitik deal with Japan. Accepting the permanent loss of access to the Yantzee river basin is much easier to take than a Soviet fleet with bases in the Med. Or Germany sitting in Calais.
What do you mean? Britain had to balance courting the US with making any sort of agreement with Japan.

Italy is not in the war yet. Italy, France, Turkey, and the UK have interest in stopping the Soviets in Turkey. Mussolini would love some concessions to help him build his new Roman empire, and compared to the Soviets occupying Turkey. The Italian fleet is strong enough to dominate the Black Sea. Italy might well have land/naval units support Turks, in exchange for concessions in the Adriatic, Africa, or other ego boosting areas. And I am not sure the Hitler really want Italy to join his war with France that much. While this is unlikely to the the treaty, imagine Italy offering to do a major effort to stop the Soviets in exchange for Tunisia. Might look good to France. Or maybe for a big chunk of empty'ish parts of Africa so his colonial empires are land connected. Is western and southern Sudan really that useful to the Allies.
Certainly the motivation to cut a deal with Mussolini just went up exponentially ITTL, but France and Britain also have to worry about domestic opinion; handing over colonies is going to be a very tough sell, but economic concessions shouldn't be an issue, especially in the colonies. Turning a blind eye to Italy muscling Greece would probably be a given as would economic concessions from Turkey. Italian naval help in the Black Sea cannot be overstated in how critical it would be to Turkey's survival and shutting down the Soviet's major weapon against Turkey that the Turks could not handle themselves. Plus having Italian air support, including naval air, would be pretty huge. Also I'm sure Italy would also want to have closer access to Romania, ensure that they aren't invaded by the Soviets, and have the Allies on side if they were willing to grant the economic concessions Italy needed, while scratching Mussolini's ideological anti-communist itch (he was apparently pissed with Hitler breaking the anti-comintern pact with the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal).
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
What do you mean? Britain had to balance courting the US with making any sort of agreement with Japan.

I mean as much an informal understanding as a formal treaty. The UK is pretty desperate ITTL as it is also sending supplies and men to Turkey. It may well be moving naval forces from the Pacific to the Black Sea. It is easy for me to see a situation where the UK views the activities in Burma as unsustainable. Or support for non-Japanese forces in China. Then the same type of cold-hearted, realistic thinking that leads to sinking the French Fleet in Oran could lead the UK to trying to trade force reductions it will have to make anyway for Japan agreeing to a stopline in China. And this can be formal or informal. We could easily be looking at a 50% reduction of UK military forces in the Indian and Pacific basin compared to OTL.

Certainly the motivation to cut a deal with Mussolini just went up exponentially ITTL, but France and Britain also have to worry about domestic opinion; handing over colonies is going to be a very tough sell, but economic concessions shouldn't be an issue, especially in the colonies. Turning a blind eye to Italy muscling Greece would probably be a given as would economic concessions from Turkey. Italian naval help in the Black Sea cannot be overstated in how critical it would be to Turkey's survival and shutting down the Soviet's major weapon against Turkey that the Turks could not handle themselves. Plus having Italian air support, including naval air, would be pretty huge. Also I'm sure Italy would also want to have closer access to Romania, ensure that they aren't invaded by the Soviets, and have the Allies on side if they were willing to grant the economic concessions Italy needed, while scratching Mussolini's ideological anti-communist itch (he was apparently pissed with Hitler breaking the anti-comintern pact with the Molotov-Ribbentrop deal).

You may well be right on the UK domestic politics. With a situation where the UK agrees to not to interfere with Italy actions in Yugoslavia and Greece combined with British behind the scene pressures for Greece to accept the 'generous' treaty of alliance with Italy would look pretty good to Mussolini. Then combine with some economic concessions, it might well be the deal. Things such as unlimited duty free transit rights for non-war materials in Djibouti could be both super attractive and face saving for France. Better terms on the Suez Canal for Italian flagged shipping looks tempting. Favorable long-term supply agreement for coal or oil.
 
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