WI Soviet collapse after dday before 1945

The idea of the Soviet Union collapsing into internal war because of Stalinist madness during ww2 has been discussed often and there are two obvious circumstances and results.

1. 1941/1942 the Germans role over the collapsing soviets and achieve total conventional military dominance over Europe until the Americans make peace/nuke them to oblivion

2. 1945 I haven't really seen this discussed but it's quite obvious that the third reich was a spent force and so would end albeit later and Eastern Europe would be liberated by the allies/ partisans


The option that I don't have a clear answer for this is my personal what if?

Very soon after the Normandy landings in 1944 after the allies have established a beachhead but before the start of 1945 Stalin becomes Ill and assumes an assassination attempt. He goes purge crazy and dies/is killed. The nkvd under Beria attempts to carry "the great purge 2: electric boogaloo" segments of the military/government resist and soon Russia collapses into warlordism with internal chaos taking it out of the picture for the foreseeable future. (Bear in mind i don't care if this particular scenario is unlikely/impossible any soviet internal collapse could work for this scenarios these details don't matter for what I'm asking it's just an example)

Does the third reich have the ability to drive the allies out of Europe/ make some sort of peace that allies the Nazis to survive , I can't find exact Wehrmacht numbers for 1944.

If the allies could stop this how long would the war last after that?

If something similar has been discussed before I'm sorry but I can't find anything
 
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thorr97

Banned
I could see the USSR becoming stuck in a chaotic situation as a result of Stalin's death.

Let's say he started getting even more murderously paranoid than he was in OTL and began seeing plots against him arising everywhere - but in particular amongst the various successful Red Army generals. After a couple of them wind up getting executed for their alleged plotting, the others realize that both their survival and that of the Soviet Union depends upon their not being Stalin's next victim. Beria and crew beat them to the punch by assuring that Stalin "dies a hero's death as a result of a brain aneurysm brought about by the stress of leading the Soviet Union against the Fascist invaders." That is was really a death due to a Tokarev's kiss to the back of his skull isn't something Beria thought wise to make public.

With the ensuing power vacuum however, the surviving generals now vie for power, for control over the nation, and for their survival as no one in their right mind would trust Beria in the leadership position - or in any position of power, for that matter.

So, all of a sudden the Soviet offensives stop. Too much confusion to risk further attacks or advances. Too much distrust to risk making an attack without guaranteed support from the rest of the Red Army and Moscow.

With this pause the Germans could reinforce their positions in the east but I don't think there'd be sufficient time to either go on the advance in a significant way - and doing so would crystallize the Red Army's unified opposition against them - nor would there be sufficient time to move a significant portion of the Wehrmacht troops out of the Eastern Front to face the Allies to the west.

This pause however, could allow the Germans the freedom to redirect troops and supplies originally intended for the Eastern Front to the West. That could significantly slow the Allied advance if those troops were deployed correctly.

At the least, the chaos in the Soviet Union would both hearten the Nazis and dishearten the Allies. That'd have to count for something on the battlefield.
 
Operation Unthinkable becomes a lot more thinkable.

Most likely outcome is a delay in the WAllies victory, possibly just long enough for some instant sunshine in Berlin. What follows largely depends on the fallout in the former USSR. I expect a repeat of the 1918-20 "intervention", with the US picking the "least bad" side.
 
Eh, I can see the Brits talking Truman into the Ukraine getting it's indepdence, Russia was a boogeyman of Chruchill's post war.
 

thorr97

Banned
What I'm seeing as most likely here is something of a "pause" on the Red Army side as the various top Soviet generals opt to wait for the dust to settle back there in Moscow. Some will wait from a distance while others will be actively involved in ensuring the dust settles favorably to them. Whether they're making power grabs to rule the USSR themselves or choosing which contender to back will essentially have the same effect on the war against the Fascists - no offensives until the sorting out is sorted out.

Depending on how internecine that sorting out gets, the Red Army's offensives could take some weeks to a couple of months to get going again.

The Germans, in the meantime, would be using that pause to dig in, to replenish, and to reposition their units on the Eastern Front. That would further delay the Soviet progress once the new normal is established in the Kremlin. The longer the sorting there takes the slower that eventual progress would be.
 
Russia was able to keep launching offensives, even if they were ineffective, after the Tsar was deposed. A coup and change in leadership wouldn't cause "the whole rotten structure to come crashing down" any more than Operation Barbarossa itself did.
 
By that point in time Germany had already lost, even if the fight stops completely(unlikely, I imagine even with this confusion the lines will keep advancing if significantly slower than would be otherwise) and Germany decides to send everything that would have been sent to the Eastern Front West and moves whatever it can the best it accomplish is delaying their end a bit, probably by nuclear bomb.

An interesting-in the Chinese sense- scenario would be trying to take advantage of the mess in the Soviet Union to attack them. By themselves I don't think the allies would actually do it, though it would at least be seriously considered since it is not absurd as Operation Unthinkable in OTL was, but this Germany would still have massive forces left in the field(they were big enough in OTL) and if they joined...
 
Germany would still Surrender to the Americans and the British instead of the Russians, Then there would be no Cold War and More Advanced Technology and World.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Russia was able to keep launching offensives, even if they were ineffective, after the Tsar was deposed. A coup and change in leadership wouldn't cause "the whole rotten structure to come crashing down" any more than Operation Barbarossa itself did.

The army itself was not part of the Revolutions in 1917; they basically held the front lines while the insanity took place back in St. Petersburg. In this scenario, they would be among the most important players in the last-man-standing game.
 
I just don't see it. Only thing concievable to stop the russians by 45 is full blown civil war and at this point no one really has the will to turn the populations focus towards one. The enemy are the germans and noone will do anything untill they are dealt with. Post war civil war is far more likely.
 
Germany would still Surrender to the Americans and the British instead of the Russians, Then there would be no Cold War and More Advanced Technology and World.

No Cold War is a strong possibility. But tech advances might be slower if we don't have the Soviet threat and the need to stay ahead of them technologically. We also butterfly away the space race, as there is no need to show up the Commies by beating them to the moon.
 
Perhaps have the Germans take Stalingrad and maintain their momentum while not totally defeating the S.U however, over extended and taking heavy casualties the Wehrmacht is greatly weakened. The allies land in Normandy, however it is too late for the Soviets to hold on to power.

1918 repeats itself. Poland's pre war gov is restored while Ukraine and the UPA along with Ukrainian Red Army units take over the Ukrainian SSR. The Baltic states retain their independence from the Soviet Union.
 
Post D-Day this is really hard because at that point everyone knew it was just a matter of time with two fronts (3 if you count Italy). It would take unusual political chaos to cause the SU to just up and fall apart even with Beria.

It would take a D-Day debacle where the Allies literally snatched defeat from the iron jaws of victory to suddenly cause major War victory doubts. We are talking logistical tomfoolery, unexpected horrible weather, Mincemeat and Juan Pujol Garcia's efforts being seen through, a more extensive Atlantic Wall, and etc... At that level, the rest of the war will have already gone very differently.

Rather than a Soviet collapse, a harsh separate peace (harsh against Germany) becomes more likely in that scenario due to Stalin's then rightful view that the WAllies can't even tie their shoes.
 
Right after D-day... are we talking before or after Bagration? With Bagration rolling, even the political mess of Stalin's death wouldn't save the germans in the East. If before, I doubt the army would advance without orders. This might give some breathing space to the germans?
 
No Cold War is a strong possibility. But tech advances might be slower if we don't have the Soviet threat and the need to stay ahead of them technologically. We also butterfly away the space race, as there is no need to show up the Commies by beating them to the moon.

Perhaps, but after the Fall of the Soviet Union. there was a big bang of internet and technologies. that Internet and technologies were exploded and gotten so much popular.
 
No Cold War is a strong possibility. But tech advances might be slower if we don't have the Soviet threat and the need to stay ahead of them technologically. We also butterfly away the space race, as there is no need to show up the Commies by beating them to the moon.

Space Race might still happened, even there were plans on exploring space and moon before cold war.
 
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