WI soviet build navy 1930s

The problem with navies that are either larger than what one would expect from a smaller power and/or concentrate on big ships (BC or BB) is that they unsustainable in several ways. Even given the ships in brand new off the showroom floor condition with that "new ship" smell, naval vessels take a fair bit of upkeep. Salt water does really bad things to ships, just for starts. At some point repairs to ships/maintenance work requires rather major shipyards to perform, the bigger the ships the bigger the yards. Ships are expensive to run, if you sail them around they are burning oil and other consumables, and you need to fire guns and torpedoes from time to time to keep crews trained and that costs money. If they sit in harbor they are functionally useless. Every so often the ships need to be modernized to some extent, newer radios, new technology like radar or they become sitting ducks. Even the spotting seaplanes need to be modernized every so often. Manning the ships is a large issue, automation is way in the future and there are issues with too small crews if you sustain battle damage. You can't use illiterate sailors of Nelson's time pulling on ropes - most jobs require some level of literacy and many require significant technical skill. Your shore establishment (another expense) can train technicians, but they need to arrive with a basic level of education to be trainable for technical skills. If your country's educational system is limited (like the USSR in the 20s and 30s and many others) your pool of potential recruits is small. If you have a good educational system but a small population base (think ANZAC) you are competing with the civilian economy for these folks. Three hots and a cot is fine in bad economic times, but otherwise...

Historically and analytically, when a country goes for a navy beyond its means as described above it causes major issues. Think what happened in Africa after decolonialization with airlines. Almost every newly independent nation had to have its own airline, and not just something small but an international carrier. There was very little infrastructure to support this existing, just to get to basic operational level a lot of money had to be poured in to runways, control towers, hangers etc. To begin with, almost all of the personnel for these airlines were foreign (expensive) hires and replacement by locals from mechanics to pilots was an expensive and slow process that, in most cases, never got very far. In the end, most of these carriers went broke and either went away or consolidated in to regionally based carriers. Had these countries settled for smaller internal/regional carriers they might have succeeded. Just so for navies, concentrate on smaller ships, perhaps fewer in number and you have a shot at succeeding and building a base for expansion and larger ships if and when. Go big right away, odds are excellent you'll fail.
 
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