WI: Soviet annexation of Iranian Azerbaijan, or soviet satellite in Northern Iran

So, what was the possibility of the Soviet Union annexing the rest of Azerbaijan to the Azeri SSR after WW2, instead of just retreating from Iran and leaving it a western ally? And, stretching it a little more, was there any chance the Soviets would set up some kind of Iranian People's Republic in the northern half of the country, while leaving the south a British-American puppet? If that was to happen what would be the allied reaction? Would Truman risk another world war?

IOTL Stalin supported the establishment of two short-lived rump states respectively in Azeri and Kurdish northwestern Iran, but decided to back down and allow the Pahlavi dynasty to reoccupy the area.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I suspect that large-scale sanctions on the Soviet Union combined with Western support for anti-Soviet insurgents in northern Iran would be more likely than an outright Western-Soviet war over Iran.
 
It has to be remembered that Stalin got--or thought he got--something in return for his withdrawal of support for the "Azerbaijan People's Government": a favorable oil deal with Prime Minister Qavam. Unfortunately for Stalin, the deal was contingent on approval by the Majlis that was to be elected--which as it turned out rejected it.

It has been argued that Qavam's deal was not a sellout but really a clever move on Qavam's part because he supposedly knew that no Majlis would ratify the agreement. (The Fifteenth Majlis in 1947 rejected it overwhelmingly.) Gholam Reza Afkhami, in his *The Life and Times of the Shah*, p. 108, expresses skepticism about the view that Qavam "played the game skillfully enough to dupe Stalin and Molotov. The proposition makes a hero of Qavam, but it is a moot claim at best. There was no evidence at the time to point to such a game..." http://books.google.com/books?id=M9xbJQyFMe8C&pg=PA108
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It has to be remembered that Stalin got--or thought he got--something in return for his withdrawal of support for the "Azerbaijan People's Government": a favorable oil deal with Prime Minister Qavam. Unfortunately for Stalin, the deal was contingent on approval by the Majlis that was to be elected--which as it turned out rejected it.

It has been argued that Qavam's deal was not a sellout but really a clever move on Qavam's part because he supposedly knew that no Majlis would ratify the agreement. (The Fifteenth Majlis in 1947 rejected it overwhelmingly.) Gholam Reza Afkhami, in his *The Life and Times of the Shah*, p. 108, expresses skepticism about the view that Qavam "played the game skillfully enough to dupe Stalin and Molotov. The proposition makes a hero of Qavam, but it is a moot claim at best. There was no evidence at the time to point to such a game..." http://books.google.com/books?id=M9xbJQyFMe8C&pg=PA108
So, Stalin should have first waited for the Iranian Parliament to ratify this oil deal, and only then withdraw (and only if the Iranian Parliament actually ratifies this deal), correct?
 
So, Stalin should have first waited for the Iranian Parliament to ratify this oil deal, and only then withdraw (and only if the Iranian Parliament actually ratifies this deal), correct?

I think Iran took the position that only a newly elected Majlis could decide on ratification--and that elections for a new Majlis could not be held until the Soviet troops withdrew. Qavam may have assured Stalin (sincerely or otherwise) that he would use his influence to see that the new Majlis ratified it, and Stalin may have believed this--or Stalin might have thought that in any event the *possibility* of future ratification *plus* the pressure the Western powers were exerting was enough reason to withdraw the troops.

Qavam's party the Democrats, did win the election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_legislative_election,_1947 including all the seats in Teheran, but in the first place they were not as successful in the provinces where "local powers had always had a greater effect on election outcomes" https://books.google.com/books?id=M9xbJQyFMe8C&pg=PA105 and in the second place even members who had supported Qavam rebelled against the oil deal.

Also, to mollify the Soviets, Qavam had agreed to the appointment of three Tudeh party members to his cabinet--to the health, commerce, and education portfolios. https://books.google.com/books?id=M9xbJQyFMe8C&pg=PA100 Under pressure from the military and the Shah, he later dismissed them. https://books.google.com/books?id=M9xbJQyFMe8C&pg=PA103
 
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