WI Soviet ambassador tells the truth and Soviets don't invade Czechoslovakia?

During the Prague Spring, the Soviet ambassador to Czechoslovakia (Stepan Chervonenko) and his staff were too afraid to report the actual public attitude in Czechoslovakia. Instead, they inflated "conservative" (i.e. doctrinaire Communist) opposition and totally ignored the widespread public support for Cubcek's reforms - apparently, they even made it sound like the people opposed Dubcek and public order was breaking down. Meanwhile, the Politburo in Moscow carefully considered the decision and waited months before deciding to send in military force to crush reform.

So, suppose Chervonenko has an attack of conscience (or decides this situation is too dangerous to conceal, or it's so big any concealment will be futile) and tells Moscow the real situation on the ground? His career would very likely be sunk, but it was anyway iOTL once Russian troops were on the ground reporting how badly he'd lied. More broadly, given how tough the decision was iOTL and how Russian troops were never sent to suppress Eastern European opposition again, the Politburo would very likely decide not to invade Czechoslovakia and suppress the Prague Spring if they had known what was really going on.

What would happen then? What sort of state would the independent socialists in Czechoslovakia set up, and what would its impact be on the rest of the Warsaw Pact and the Cold War?
 
During the Prague Spring, the Soviet ambassador to Czechoslovakia (Stepan Chervonenko) and his staff were too afraid to report the actual public attitude in Czechoslovakia. Instead, they inflated "conservative" (i.e. doctrinaire Communist) opposition and totally ignored the widespread public support for Cubcek's reforms - apparently, they even made it sound like the people opposed Dubcek and public order was breaking down. Meanwhile, the Politburo in Moscow carefully considered the decision and waited months before deciding to send in military force to crush reform.

So, suppose Chervonenko has an attack of conscience (or decides this situation is too dangerous to conceal, or it's so big any concealment will be futile) and tells Moscow the real situation on the ground? His career would very likely be sunk, but it was anyway iOTL once Russian troops were on the ground reporting how badly he'd lied. More broadly, given how tough the decision was iOTL and how Russian troops were never sent to suppress Eastern European opposition again, the Politburo would very likely decide not to invade Czechoslovakia and suppress the Prague Spring if they had known what was really going on.

What would happen then? What sort of state would the independent socialists in Czechoslovakia set up, and what would its impact be on the rest of the Warsaw Pact and the Cold War?

Historically the Prague Spring occurred at the time that Eurocommunism was developing. At least, this is my understanding from CPA politics. If this is correct, this is unlikely to remove Eurocommunism's effects from the Western Parties. Instead this may very well legitimise the ultraleft in Western Europe, who will seek to claim Dubcek's reforms, if "Grin without a Cat" is any measure of the sentiment felt by the ultraleft towards Free, Independent, "Leninist", Workers Councils.

Assuming the United States props up the Czech economy at least to the extent of the Yugoslav model, this might threaten Kadar's rule in Hungary. It would certainly give the Polish reformers, left, and right a model for use on the party there.

However, similar things were once said about Gomułka. Given the power flowing towards local workplaces in Czechoslovakia, I would suspect that this wouldn't be corrupted. So what matters next is whether the Czechoslovakians can wedge a workers council economy (theoretically higher productivity) into a useful place to survive in the contention between capitalism east and west?

thanks,
Sam.
 
Top