WI: Southern Song survives

What are the best chances of the Southern Song dynasty to survive the Mongol invasion and live in coexistence with the fledgling Yuan dynasty in the north?

How will this affect Asian history?
 
If the Southern Song dynasty survives, then the mongol invasions of Java, Burma, Vietnam, and probably Japan are butterflied away.
This could mean the survival of the kingdoms of Dali, Pagan, and Singhasari. And possibly even the Khmer, if the rise of the Sukhothai is prevented.
However, the absence of costly military expeditions towards such areas, coupled with less overextension, could possibly strengthen the Yuan dynasty in the north. This could force the Southern Song to allocate more resources into defending the north against a possible mongol attack, which could hamper the kingdom's maritime expansion power unless it survives for long enough.
 
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You can start with Song not backstabbing Mongols due to disagreements over division of Jin.

Really, they haven't learned from the previous fiasco of backstabbing Jurchen due to disagreements over division of Khitan. Song were as greedy as they were incompetent.
 
Other discussions in a similar vein that you might want to look at for ideas include
(all threads with at least 5 replies, I think)
If you are to mention older threads, then you should as well at least give your opinion on the subject, even if it's extracted from an older argument. Otherwise, it just seems rude to just throw links to older threads.
 
If you are to mention older threads, then you should as well at least give your opinion on the subject, even if it's extracted from an older argument. Otherwise, it just seems rude to just throw links to older threads.

Why can't you just post on the older threads and query what the OP...

Oh... right. the shelf life is 4 months. I can see why old thread resurrecting is disabled, but 38-40 months seems more reasonable.

But in all seriousness, if the OP is satisfied with @Dathi THorfinnsson 's reply, then he answered the query even if he didn't provide commentary.
 
One of the khagans actually goes through with razing Northern China and purging it of Han Chinese in order to populate it with Mongols?
 
You can start with Song not backstabbing Mongols due to disagreements over division of Jin.

Really, they haven't learned from the previous fiasco of backstabbing Jurchen due to disagreements over division of Khitan. Song were as greedy as they were incompetent.
I think the Mongols would have attacked the Song Dynasty eventually regardless of whether they honored agreements or not.It's not the first time they attacked a former ally.
 
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I think the Mongols would have attacked the Song Dynasty eventually regardless of whether they honored agreements or not.It's not the first time they attacked a former ally.
Yes, but to be fair to the mongols, everyone kept murdering their envoys, breaking their agreements, and generally asking to be invaded.
I mean, how many mongol invasions didn't start with some city-dwelling smug jerk being sure he could take on a bunch of smelly barbarians?
I would like to see statistics: Wars where mongols attacked, wars when mongols were attacked, and wars where technically mongols attacked first, but the assholes being invaded had it coming.
 
Yes, but to be fair to the mongols, everyone kept murdering their envoys, breaking their agreements, and generally asking to be invaded.
I mean, how many mongol invasions didn't start with some city-dwelling smug jerk sure he could take on some smelly barbarians?
I would like to see statistics: Wars where mongols attacked, wars when mongols were attacked, and wars where technically mongols attacked first, but the assholes being invaded had it coming.
Initially maybe,but many invasions started simply because people refused to pay tribute or submit to them.
 
Yes, but to be fair to the mongols, everyone kept murdering their envoys, breaking their agreements, and generally asking to be invaded.
I mean, how many mongol invasions didn't start with some city-dwelling smug jerk being sure he could take on a bunch of smelly barbarians?
I would like to see statistics: Wars where mongols attacked, wars when mongols were attacked, and wars where technically mongols attacked first, but the assholes being invaded had it coming.

The Mongol envoys being often brutally murdered is quite a misunderstood issue.

First of all it is rare when we know for sure the message which the Mongol envoys brought with them.
It especially true for the early period of the Mongol World Empire, when Chengizz Khan was still alive, especially early years - that was the period when some murders of the Mongol envoys might have been unprovoked.

But most often even in Chengizz Khan time sending the Mongol envoys was a purposeful provocation (which made them suicide missions for the Mongol envoys).

For example, Chengizz Khan sends an extremely polite letter to shah Muhammad II of Khwarezm and even kindly calls him "my favorite son" - and suddenly the Mongol envoys, who carried the letter, are killed on the spot. So Chengizz Khan has a nice justification for his invasion, the Mongols are outraged by this incomprehensible murder and ready for a swift revenge.
The Mongols see it like a great honor when the Son of the Heaven, Chengizz Khan calls shah Muhammad II "my favorite son" and this makes this murder even more outrageous.
But according to the diplomatic notions of the time if an independent ruler accepted being called "a son" by some other ruler, that means that he acknowledges to be a vassal of that other ruler, that is a sign of submission, obedience.
That was unacceptable for shah Muhammad II of Khwarezm, who rightly considered himself one of the greatest monarchs on the Earth; so he sees it as a deliberate, intentional, public insult and executes the envoys.

After the death of Chengizz Khan while the Mongol World Empire was expanding the Mongols were less subtle, they didn't feel they needed any tricks; their message was plain and simple:
- "Kneel before the Great Universal Khaan, the ruler of the World, surrender, submit and obey; or you will be ruthlessly, brutally killed and your country will be devastated."

As you see, it doesn't matter too much if the Mongol envoys are murdered or not murdered; if you didn't submit your fate was horrid anyway. And even more than that, your not killing the envoys might have been interpreted as a sign of weakness and fear.
 

Huh. For some reason I recalled how I used to play Eu:Rome, after I finally figured out how to expand without stability hits from unjustified wars.
I appointed someone I didn't like (leader of hostile faction, for example) a diplomat, and sent him to nation I want to invade, but have no cassus belli on, on a routine mission, like... assasinate someone, or desecrate holy site. They catch him, execute him, and lo and behold, now I have the CB.
 
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