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alternatehistory.com
A few thoughts on an alternate history of SWA/Namibia.
In this timeline:
1977 the Turnhalle Conference calls for an independent South-West Africa as a Federation. The new nation will be the Commonwealth of Namibia. After the whites only referendum that approved the plan elections would be held in the 10 bantustans asking the black population if they will stay in the commonwealth as self governing provinces or seek independence.
The UN would of course never accept this plan but with the new Conservative government in the UK Botha approaches Thatcher with this as his best offer. Independent Namibia without Ovamboland. The British would oversee elections, the South Africans distrust of the UN would take them out of the picture in this timeline.
The Bantustan elections are held in 1980. SWAPO boycotts the election. Due to fear of Ovambo domination all of the bautustans vote to stay with the exception of Ovamboland. South Africa successfully portrays the alternative as a unified country dominated by Ovambos at the expense of the other ethnic groups. Much like it is today in OTL. The new Namibia without Ovamboland will be 30% white and the largest ethnic group.
SWAPO rejects this plan and boycotts the election held in 1982 for a new government in soon to be independent Ovamboland. The moderate traditional chief Cornelius Njoba wins the election.
The UK and most of the west recognizes the independence of Namibia and Ovamboland. The UN condemns it and most of the eastern block refuses recognition. The pro western governments recognize or unofficially support the two new states.
The bush war goes on as in OTL but with a friendly Namibia and Ovamboland fighting with South Africa in southern Angola. UNSC resolution 591, the mandatory arms embargo, is vetoed by the UK and the US. France supplies South Africa and the new Namibian Defence Force with the Mirage 2000 to replace its older models. This changes the balance of air power in 1988 with the South African/Namibian air forces keeping air superiority over southern angola. With a decisive victory in Operation Moulder SWAPO and the Cubans are forced to the negotiating table. Cuba will now pull out and SWAPO will participate in the next Ovamboland elections.