I would hazard to guess that the fact that South Korea and Japan would wind-up gassed and possibly even nuked is a much more immediate problem then whatever China does.
I think the fact that South Korea and Japan would wind-up gassed and possibly even nuked is a much more immediate problem then whatever China does.
The West then has to gamble on their missile defense technology.
@Hugo strange
Except in these crazy MAD(economic and nuclear) days that we still live in major powers aren't going to war with each other. Not over Ukraine and not over North Korea. The side that makes the first move has the advantage as the other side knows that the second move triggers rapid escalation.
Also the horrible things that Chile or Isreal do aren't against the second most powerful nation.
guys,you really think china is going to commit a siginificant portion of its military in a war against a highly important trade partner to save a economically next to useless regime they hate themselves,especially if there is even the possibility of japanese and much more importantly US involvement?
the "troops on border" argument sounds archaic,i dont see them panicking about ist. why would they? In which plausible scenario is this important? conventional all-out warfare China vs USA (assuming south korea would go along with that after NK is gone)? come on
the refugee fear seems to be overblown as well. lets say half of north korea wants to emigrate (high estimate). that would be 12 Million people. lets say only half of them choose south korea or any other non-china nation (low estimate). thats 6 Million people worst case,without accounting fo a closed border. i hardly see china drowning in that,much less in any more realistic number.
According to the Bluffers guide to the DPRK, there aren't actually any non-missile artillery units within range of metropolitan Seoul.
The US also made a backroom del with the USSR about not expanding NATO eastwards, and look how that worked out. The Chinese will be very unlikely to trust the US. They knoq that maybe know the US promises to withdraw, but five years later the Koreans request them to stay and then the US will say "thats what the Koreans want, why should we refuse them".
This is the reasons given for the Eastwards expansion of NATO and there is no reason for the Chinese to expect thus not to happen here again.
South Korea changes its laws, allowing the South Korean executive or legislative branches to declare war without American approval. Then South Korea attacks North Korea