WI: South Korea Preemptively Invades DPRK

I would hazard to guess that the fact that South Korea and Japan would wind-up gassed and possibly even nuked is a much more immediate problem then whatever China does.
 
The West then has to gamble on their missile defense technology.

A very risky gamble to make. The chemical and nuclear missiles would be indistinguishable from the conventional ones, so the North Koreans could hide a nuke or gas warhead inside of (or just ever so slightly behind) a volley of high explosives. We're talking a missile stockpile potentially numbering the thousands here, of which 10-20 might be a nuke and any of the other ones could be carrying nerve agents.

The Seoul Metro Area will have it the worst: not only would the city be a prime target for ballistic missile attacks, but the northern part of the region is in range of North Korean artillery batteries and there is no way the South Koreans whittle those numbers to something manageable before the DPRK retaliates. A conventional bombardment could kill tens of thousands, a chemical bombardment far more.
 
@Hugo strange

Except in these crazy MAD(economic and nuclear) days that we still live in major powers aren't going to war with each other. Not over Ukraine and not over North Korea. The side that makes the first move has the advantage as the other side knows that the second move triggers rapid escalation.

Also the horrible things that Chile or Isreal do aren't against the second most powerful nation.

I am not sure how binding the need for SK to get US's approval to attack but with virtually no notice SK can end the Armistice and attack NK. China will proably draw a red, no pun intended, and not get in the war. The whole idea of an Armistice is to negotiate a peace treaty. The only country that has any influence over NK is China. I would not be surprised if China might cause an accident or two with the NK leaders. Since the Armistice started China would rather poke the US then negotiate a peace treaty. Legally and morally SK has waited long enough for negotiations. China created the monster they might not be unhappy to see them go if the US forces were far enough away. Or look at it this way economically is NK worth the trade, plus the amount of US bonds that would be frozen, or NK.
 
According to the Bluffers guide to the DPRK, there aren't actually any non-missile artillery units within range of metropolitan Seoul.

https://productforums.google.com/forum/#!topic/gec-military/f1fFtV4XMzY

That being said, missiles negate that advantage and any SAM batteries around Seoul are going to be very busy in any opening hours of a conflict.

If the ASB got the ROK into and through the DMZ then I would not be surprised if the DPRK tried to use one or two of its nukes as mines in any chokepoints it could devise.
I think the ROK could possibly take down the DPRK, but it would take a bloodying in doing so, it's got the edge right now but I think that there still needs to be a bit more sharpening of that edge before it could go solo.

But, honestly, why would it want to? Aside from the legal implications of the act, I think that the ROK would be completely unprepared for the crisis that would follow as the two Koreas attempted to unite.

China is a gamble, they have little love for the DPRK, but the last thing they need is a refugee crisis to dwarf the one in Europe as the Kim dynasty collapses and the downtrodden in the DPRK look for a better life in China. With its current economic slowdown, a mass invasion of hungry and homeless Koreans would just completely deep-six their finances.
So it's possible that they would intervene, but in a defensive manner, perhaps putting a defensive line in front of Pyongyang and threatening the ROK not to cross it. That's assuming that the ROK doesn't reach Pyongyang before news reaches Beijing.
But, since the build-up in a prelude to an attack would probably be detected by the PRC anyway, they'd probably move before the ROK launches an attack and send a load of troops in the DPRK for 'exercises'.
 
Given all bluster of late by our little fat friend in North Korea, I was wondering if any of the recent military developments by the North (Hydrogen Bomb testing for instance) might change this war game scenario
 
guys,you really think china is going to commit a siginificant portion of its military in a war against a highly important trade partner to save a economically next to useless regime they hate themselves,especially if there is even the possibility of japanese and much more importantly US involvement?

the "troops on border" argument sounds archaic,i dont see them panicking about ist. why would they? In which plausible scenario is this important? conventional all-out warfare China vs USA (assuming south korea would go along with that after NK is gone)? come on :rolleyes:

the refugee fear seems to be overblown as well. lets say half of north korea wants to emigrate (high estimate). that would be 12 Million people. lets say only half of them choose south korea or any other non-china nation (low estimate). thats 6 Million people worst case,without accounting fo a closed border. i hardly see china drowning in that,much less in any more realistic number.
 
guys,you really think china is going to commit a siginificant portion of its military in a war against a highly important trade partner to save a economically next to useless regime they hate themselves,especially if there is even the possibility of japanese and much more importantly US involvement?

the "troops on border" argument sounds archaic,i dont see them panicking about ist. why would they? In which plausible scenario is this important? conventional all-out warfare China vs USA (assuming south korea would go along with that after NK is gone)? come on :rolleyes:

the refugee fear seems to be overblown as well. lets say half of north korea wants to emigrate (high estimate). that would be 12 Million people. lets say only half of them choose south korea or any other non-china nation (low estimate). thats 6 Million people worst case,without accounting fo a closed border. i hardly see china drowning in that,much less in any more realistic number.

I'll give my two cents for this argument.

No, China isn't going to save North Korea's ass. Why? Because North Korea is pretty much useless now and if America makes some backroom deals with China (no US troops in former North Korea or even withdrawing troops from the Korean Peninsula), then China will just watch quietly as South Korea and America steamrolls North Korea.

But that's a big IF. IF America allows South Korea to go on the offensive first. Of course, right now, that would definitely not be allowed.

Plus, South Korea isn't wholly supportive of reunification. Mainly because the costs of reuniting the two Koreas would be in the trillions.
 

gaijin

Banned
The US also made a backroom del with the USSR about not expanding NATO eastwards, and look how that worked out. The Chinese will be very unlikely to trust the US. They knoq that maybe know the US promises to withdraw, but five years later the Koreans request them to stay and then the US will say "thats what the Koreans want, why should we refuse them".

This is the reasons given for the Eastwards expansion of NATO and there is no reason for the Chinese to expect thus not to happen here again.
 
See my previous answer about everyone detecting South Korea's preparations to attac and then shouting at them to stop before North Korea goes ape on them pre-emptively.

According to the Bluffers guide to the DPRK, there aren't actually any non-missile artillery units within range of metropolitan Seoul.

That's a half-truth: Seoul proper is outside of range. But some of the northern suburb cities are within range and have somewhere in the range of 1-1.5 million people crammed into population densities similar to a number of Japanese or European cities.
 
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The US also made a backroom del with the USSR about not expanding NATO eastwards, and look how that worked out. The Chinese will be very unlikely to trust the US. They knoq that maybe know the US promises to withdraw, but five years later the Koreans request them to stay and then the US will say "thats what the Koreans want, why should we refuse them".

This is the reasons given for the Eastwards expansion of NATO and there is no reason for the Chinese to expect thus not to happen here again.

Why would the Chinese commit to a war against their biggest trading partner and 3rd biggest trading partner over a worthless piece of land that has literally provoked everyone for the last 30 years?

No reasons. The US and China would make a backroom deal. Comparing the USSR and China is ignorant. The USSR deal was broken because the USSR COLLAPSED. Plus, Stalin technically also broke the deal of having elections in eastern Europe after WW2. China isn't stupid. It sees the writing on the wall and sees that the US will support South Korea if the two Koreas do go to war. Why plunge into economical and political suicide when you can make some nice deals (like US troops from mainland Asia) out of it?

-I'm pretty much knowledgeable in all aspects of Asia and US international affairs.
 
The US will get involved this anyway, since there's all those US soldiers in South Korea. Even if the US says "no, we don't want to get involved in what South Korea is doing", North Korea won't care and US soldiers will get shot at regardless, and no way the US wouldn't get involved after that.
 
South Korea changes its laws, allowing the South Korean executive or legislative branches to declare war without American approval. Then South Korea attacks North Korea

Could be done, I guess. All they have to do is accept the handover; the U.S. is more than willing to do it. Right now, ROK forces are under U.S. command because the South Korean government likes it that way. Every time the U.S. tries to give back control, the ROK delays it. Makes sense from the ROK's POV, since if anything goes wrong, it'll be on the U.S. and not on them. It's been delayed so many times I wonder if it'll ever happen.
 
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